Forex Technical Update
AUD/USD 4H Chart 11/5/2012 3:10PM EDT
Coiling: The AUD/USD fell into fresh lows for the week last Friday even after a positive NFP which usually boosts risk and AUD/USD. Still, we can’t say that the AUD/USD is bearish yet, at least when looking at the 4H chart. Despite the failure to truly clear the 1.0395-1.0410 resistance area, the Aussie is still holding above a rising support area. A break below 1.03 will be needed to clear below the rising support as well as range support to introduce the bearish outlook. Otherwise the market remains coiling between converging trendlines (flat resistance, rising support), with just as likely a break to the upside.
Breakout scenarios: A bearish breakout is clear with a break below 1.03, and a push of the 4H RSI below 40. This exposes the 1.0175-1.0180 and 1.0148 support pivots. A clear break above 1.0410 introduces the bullish outlook especially if the 4H RSI also pushes above 60. The bullish outlook has resistance pivots to monitor at 1.0465, around 1.0525-1.0530, and then the 1.0623 September high, before exposing the 2012-high of 1.0850.
Fan Yang CMT is a forex trader, analyst, educator and Chief Technical Strategist for FXTimes – provider of Forex News, Analysis, Education, Videos, Charts, and other trading resources.
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