The CFTC has finalized the registration requirements for Swap Dealers (SD) and Major Swap Participants (MSP). The Commission also officially authorized the National Futures Association to begin accepting applications. Registration and compliance requirements will not become mandatory until the CFTC further defines SD and MSP later this year…
Much of US growth is driven by personal consumption, and the recent bullish atmosphere in stocks hinges on the momentum in the US continuing. However, the key factors that helped spending in the second half of 2011 – US consumers running down savings, a boost in demand for credit, and cheaper gas prices – may be drying up. Therefore, those that may be expecting modest to strong growth in the US in the first half of the year may be disappointed as we get further incoming data.
This week will be an interesting one as we continue to monitor the breakdown in correlation between the USD and EUR to other risk assets and to US data following last week’s move in favor of the USD after a positive NFP report. We also have the start of 4th quarter earnings season in the US as well as data on retail sales, consumer confidence, and trade. In Europe we will be watching the ECB rate decision, auctions by Spain and Italy, as well as a meeting between Merkel and Sarkozy.
On the final trading day of 2011, with thin liquidity, let’s take a step back and see where money is flowing it the general financial markets over the last couple of months as two stories caught my eye recently on this point. While US Treasuries have seen strong demand this a year, data on custodial holdings show selling of Treasuries by foreigners. Also, investors are pulling money out of mutual funds. The demand for US treasuries will ahave an important impact on the US dollar in 2012 and something we will continue to monitor in the next year.
We bring together several key stories that are pertinent to the GBP revolving around UK growth, monetary policy, government borrowing and its credit rating. Moody’s has said that the country has very little scope to absorb another shock, and with the weak outlook for the economy, the UK may lose its ‘AAA’ credit rating. We examine that while looking at the possibility of a retest of December’s lows in the GBP/USD pair.
We preview the 5 key themes for this week. 1) The continuing concern about Euro-zone downgrades and the pressure on the Euro. 2) US spending and durable goods data. 3) US housing releases. 4) Key data from New Zealand including GDP and current account. 5) Canada’s reports on inflation, sales, and GDP.
The economic data from the UK this week was a disappointment and may point to further GBP weakness in the coming months as the market fully prices in further quantitative easing from the Bank of England. We review the key fundamental releases and look at some key levels for the GBP/USD.
Today’s FOMC interest-rate decision does not have much hype associated with it as no new stimulative measures are expected and so we will be gauging the reaction of the FOMC to the recent positive US data and the employment data which show the unemployment rate dropping to 8.6%. We list out a couple of scenarios and also highlight the change in the composition of voting members at the FOMC that happens at year’s end.
The ECB cut interest rates and went further with its non-standard measures in an attempt to address the funding pressures in the European banking system. However, the central bank did not offer up a more aggressive bond buying program for sovereign debt, leaving that firmly in the corner of European politicians who begin their EU Summit today. The ECB is concerned with facilitating the proper functioning of money market and its moves today showed that, but the market was quite unimpressed and we saw the EUR and equities sold off during his press conference.
RT @MarvellousR8kie @alaidi Thank you very much for the valuable insights. Great seminar. Thks for coming ! #forex
A MUST For Anyone who Trades FX! Free e-book from BK -Don't Trade Like Tony Montana FX http://t.co/WTBAVCeZ .03
$GBPUSD 240-minute swing entry update video walk-thru http://t.co/Gd2ELB55 #forex $$ $GBPUSD Follows-Through as Greenback Slides Towards Psych Level http://t.co/wVNJGzNH #forex $$ Sandy kicking off the seminar, Ill take over at Noon http://t.co/xrZdNmNC #forex $SPX Pretty much replicated $EURUSD shorts on Thurs nite as on Tue; results were the same, peaks at 1.32 back to hit 13080s targets #forex
Thank you kindly! Have a great weekend. @SE1_Trading @LeeGrins @aussietorres @knmtechnology @esanchez81 (cont) http://t.co/mwArOhWy
Need to launch changes on DailyFX so US traders can watch videos. May take a few days. Meantime US viewers can go here: http://t.co/z54gnUQY Weekend Video (now available to US viewers): AUDUSD and Dow Clear Resistance Post NFPs, EURUSD Anchored http://t.co/eDfHlafs And, there were no fireworks in US crude positioning this past week. But then again, oil held congestion http://t.co/XOKxCq4l We had a notable jump in the net long interest in gold this past week. Feeding into the metal's upswing. http://t.co/9Q5FNffe We've noted the divergence between S&P 500 price and volume. Add to that net speculative positioning. http://t.co/PHLpdOMi We talk about the short-cover potential in EURUSD, but what about the unwinding of this big $AUDUSD long buildup. http://t.co/uHep6hbe In the meantime, here is the $EURUSD versus the net speculative Euro interest. A lot more room for covering here.. http://t.co/d7P0JHsa
weekly http://t.co/FjE1lFRL i WILL be online sunday night during the super bowl after I smoke my ribs on the grill #forex Yet another Friday where $EURUSD is rallying into the close on spec that Greek deal will be done. The US Dollar Index fell far behind this recent build up in net speculative positioning in dollars. http://t.co/vMcNiXT7 Here's the Dow Jones Industrial Average and its respective volume lull as well. http://t.co/e2X4CbFK Too much to expect a multi-month high close on the $S&P 500 to garner greater turnover. http://t.co/vnF8MqmY
Co-chairs of Greek Creditors Committee flying into Athens this w/e - either tough decisions need to be made or a deal is ready to be closed Best performing currency pair today is CADJPY +1.11%, Worst performing is EUR/CAD -0.60% RT @kathylienfx: @Fxflow Congrats on cracking above 8k// thanks K Flow Rules! :) crosses http://t.co/sTJIEdld better opportunities here (still) than in usd imo Awesome Timetable on Greece courtesy of WSJ. Print it out or save the link http://t.co/RnUs2EYX ...great quote from Sebastien Galy at Soc Gen in that article, “The SNB’s hand is being forced and it will likely be fairly brutal.” According to a good FT article on SNB political pressure for solid intervention, the options market is pricing in a 30% chance of 1.20 break EUR net short positions down 8 percent - confirming that shorts were "squeezed" over the past week That's a hearty drop in net dollar long interest from the COT figures. Good indicator for establishing a time frame for dollar's tumble.
This is the stand out figure IMO RT @djfxtrader: Net Yen Long Position $9.3 Billion Increases 30%,according to analysis of CFTC data #forex Here's the risk-trend alternative to the cable channel: $AUDUSD blowing through the potential triple top at 1.0750 http://t.co/q4EgQK8n
#FF The young ones in FX @Hew_Dat @stephensimonis @Lawrence_Fayman @josephrichman @Rebelgt09 @jaredboydfx You can't use rate expectations for the BoE, so here is $GBPUSD versus the UK-US 10yr yield differential. http://t.co/0pq2FBfE We're talking the spread of a crisis state from Greece to Portugal, but Portuguese CDS have pulled back recently. http://t.co/KQ85ZFYl Fed ZIRP 'less' ZIRPy -time for ECB/BoE/BOJ/SNB to play catchup (mkt weighing adj in rate diffs w/risk app)..balance sheets ready to implode
@JamieSaettele thanks buddy!..yep 161.8% projection of wave 3 vs 1 - kiddie stuff :-) Can u believe I will ACTUALLY be watching the Superbowl Sun? Usually I'm at a rest bc its the BEST day of the yr to get those had reserv!
Do now that we're all on LinkedIn, what happens? Do we all get raises? Or do we all hire each other? An hour an change left for the official NY trading session. Looks like we will hold onto these breaks for next week. You can definitely tell those officials that are irked by the 2014 FOMC hold call. Bullard says it was wrong to link it to a specific time. Our clients at Aspen have 1.0820 limits to take profits in AUDUSD to go flat for +225 pip trade. Feds Bullard says Fed may have to raise rates before 2014 and strong data weakens case for QE. He is a non voter on FOMC
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NFA publishes interpretive notice on slippage
Felix Shipkevich \The CFTC has approved an NFA interpretive notice to NFA Compliance Rule 2-36: Requirements for Forex Transaction. The notice was originally written in response to an uptick in the number of disciplinary actions taken against Forex Dealer Members for failure to observe high standards of commercial honor and just and equitable principals of trade in the conduct of their forex business…