The CFTC has approved an NFA interpretive notice to NFA Compliance Rule 2-36: Requirements for Forex Transaction. The notice was originally written in response to an uptick in the number of disciplinary actions taken against Forex Dealer Members for failure to observe high standards of commercial honor and just and equitable principals of trade in the conduct of their forex business…

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Much of US growth is driven by personal consumption, and the recent bullish atmosphere in stocks hinges on the momentum in the US continuing. However, the key factors that helped spending in the second half of 2011 – US consumers running down savings, a boost in demand for credit, and cheaper gas prices – may be drying up. Therefore, those that may be expecting modest to strong growth in the US in the first half of the year may be disappointed as we get further incoming data.

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This week will be an interesting one as we continue to monitor the breakdown in correlation between the USD and EUR to other risk assets and to US data following last week’s move in favor of the USD after a positive NFP report. We also have the start of 4th quarter earnings season in the US as well as data on retail sales, consumer confidence, and trade. In Europe we will be watching the ECB rate decision, auctions by Spain and Italy, as well as a meeting between Merkel and Sarkozy.

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On the final trading day of 2011, with thin liquidity, let’s take a step back and see where money is flowing it the general financial markets over the last couple of months as two stories caught my eye recently on this point. While US Treasuries have seen strong demand this a year, data on custodial holdings show selling of Treasuries by foreigners. Also, investors are pulling money out of mutual funds. The demand for US treasuries will ahave an important impact on the US dollar in 2012 and something we will continue to monitor in the next year.

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We bring together several key stories that are pertinent to the GBP revolving around UK growth, monetary policy, government borrowing and its credit rating. Moody’s has said that the country has very little scope to absorb another shock, and with the weak outlook for the economy, the UK may lose its ‘AAA’ credit rating. We examine that while looking at the possibility of a retest of December’s lows in the GBP/USD pair.

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Today’s FOMC interest-rate decision does not have much hype associated with it as no new stimulative measures are expected and so we will be gauging the reaction of the FOMC to the recent positive US data and the employment data which show the unemployment rate dropping to 8.6%. We list out a couple of scenarios and also highlight the change in the composition of voting members at the FOMC that happens at year’s end.

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The ECB cut interest rates and went further with its non-standard measures in an attempt to address the funding pressures in the European banking system. However, the central bank did not offer up a more aggressive bond buying program for sovereign debt, leaving that firmly in the corner of European politicians who begin their EU Summit today. The ECB is concerned with facilitating the proper functioning of money market and its moves today showed that, but the market was quite unimpressed and we saw the EUR and equities sold off during his press conference.

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