Key Fundamental Forex Events for the Week of March 3rd through March 7th
The following table lists the key economic data and other events that came out during the week of March 3rd through March 7th, with release times displayed for the GMT time zone.
The list also indicates how much each release deviated from the market consensus forecast upon release, as well as what the affected major currency pair or pairs did after each event or set of events.
Monday, March 3rd
- 1:45am CNY HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI 48.5 versus 48.5 expected.
- 9:30am GBP Manufacturing PMI 56.9 versus 56.9 expected. The currency fell.
- 2:00pm EUR ECB President Draghi said that, “As you know, the integrity of the euro area is an absolute precondition for us to be able to deliver on the mandate prescribed by the Treaty and in particular to ensure a smooth transmission of our monetary policy. In order to preserve this integrity, we thus announced our readiness to conduct Outright Monetary Transactions with the specific purpose of removing compensation for that risk from the financial pricing of securities. This announcement reversed the destabilising capital flows that redenomination fears had encouraged in spring 2012.” The currency fell.
- 3:00pm USD ISM Manufacturing PMI 53.2 versus 52.3 expected. The currency rose.
Tuesday, March 4th
- 12:30am AUD Building Approvals 6.8% versus 0.7% expected. The currency rose.
- 3:30am AUD Cash Rate 2.50% versus 2.50% expected. The currency rose.
- 3:30am AUD RBA Rate Statement noted that, “The decline in the exchange rate seen to date will assist in achieving balanced growth in the economy, though the exchange rate remains high by historical standards. Looking ahead, the Bank expects unemployment to rise further before it peaks. Over time, growth is expected to strengthen, helped by continued low interest rates and the lower exchange rate. Inflation is expected to be consistent with the 2–3 per cent target over the next two years.” The currency rose.
- 9:30am GBP Construction PMI 62.6 versus 63.6 expected. The currency fell.
Wednesday, March 5th
- 12:30am AUD GDP 0.8% versus 0.7% expected. The currency rose.
- 9:30am GBP Services PMI 58.2 versus 58.0 expected. The currency rose.
- 1:15pm USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 139K versus 159K expected. The currency fell.
- 3:00pm CAD BOC Rate Statement noted that, “On the whole, the fundamental drivers of growth and inflation in Canada continue to strengthen gradually, as anticipated. With inflation expected to be well below target for some time, the downside risks to inflation remain important. At the same time, the risks associated with elevated household imbalances have not materially changed.” The currency rose.
- 3:00pm CAD Overnight Rate 1.00% versus 1.00% expected. The currency rose.
- 3:00pm USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 51.6 versus 53.8 expected. The currency fell.
Thursday, March 6th
- 12:30am AUD Retail Sales 1.2% versus 0.5% expected. The currency rose.
- 12:30am AUD Trade Balance 1.43B versus 0.11B expected. The currency rose.
- 12:00pm GBP Asset Purchase Facility 375B versus 375B expected. The currency rose.
- 12:00pm GBP Official Bank Rate 0.50% versus 0.50% expected. The currency rose.
- 12:00pm GBP MPC Rate Statement noted that, “The Committee reached its decisions in the context of the monetary policy guidance announced alongside the publication of the August 2013 Inflation Report. Also in the context of that guidance, the Committee agreed to reinvest the £8.1 billion of cash flows associated with the redemption of the March 2014 gilt held in the Asset Purchase Facility.” The currency rose.
- 12:45pm EUR Minimum Bid Rate Decision 0.25% versus 0.25% expected. The currency rose.
- 1:15pm USD FOMC Member Dudley said that, “The corporate sector is awash in cash. Profits are high and stock prices are very high. And so it looks like the economy—and monetary policy is very accommodative, so you are still getting quite a bit of support from monetary policy. So it seems to us the economy should do better in 2014 than in 2013. The question mark is the weather. The weather is going to make reading the data more difficult over the near term because it’s been unusually cold and snowy. And that’s going to depress economic activity in the first quarter.” The currency fell.
- 1:30pm CAD Building Permits 8.5% versus 1.9% expected. The currency rose.
- 1:30pm EUR ECB Press Conference: ECB President Mario Draghi said that, “Regarding the medium-term outlook for prices and growth, the information and analysis now available fully confirm our decision to maintain an accommodative monetary policy stance for as long as necessary. This will assist the gradual economic recovery in the euro area. We firmly reiterate our forward guidance.” We continue to expect the key ECB interest rates to remain at present or lower levels for an extended period of time. This expectation is based on an overall subdued outlook for inflation extending into the medium term, given the broad-based weakness of the economy, the high degree of unutilised capacity and subdued money and credit creation.” The currency rose.
- 1:30pm USD Weekly Initial Jobless Claims 323K versus 336K expected. The currency fell.
- 3:00pm CAD Ivey PMI 57.2 versus 56.7 expected. The currency rose.
- 10:30pm AUD RBA Governor Stevens said that, “At the present time we judge monetary policy to be doing the things it can reasonably be expected to do in the circumstances we face. We have signalled the likelihood, if the economy evolves more or less as expected, of a period of stability in the cash rate. As well as the low level of interest rates generally, a sense of stability should be of some help for businesses and households as they form their plans.” The currency rose.
Friday, March 7th
- 1:30pm CAD Employment Change -7.0K versus 16.9K expected. The currency fell.
- 1:30pm CAD Trade Balance -0.2B versus -1.6B expected. The currency fell`.
- 1:30pm CAD Unemployment Rate 7.0% versus 7.0% expected. The currency fell.
- 1:30pm USD Non-Farm Payrolls175K versus 151K expected. The currency rose.
- 1:30pm USD Trade Balance -39.1B versus -39.1B expected. The currency rose.
- 1:30pm USD Unemployment Rate 6.7% versus 6.6% expected. The currency rose.
Saturday, March 8th
- Tentative CNY Trade Balance (13.2B expected, not yet released)
Technical Recap for the Majors This Week
Forecast: Mildly Higher
Actual: Mildly higher from a 1.3774 open to a 1.3867 close.
Actual: Higherfrom a 101.47 open to a 103.34 close.
Actual: Mildly lower from a 1.6739 open to a 1.6723 close.
Actual: Higher from a 0.8906 open to a 0.9079 close.
Forecast: Mildly lower
Actual: Mildly lower from a 1.1076 open to a 1.1073 close.
Actual: Higher from a 0.8360 open to a 0.8455 close.