Triangle breakout: EUR/USD price action during the 6/18 broke above an ascending triangle seen in the 1H chart as well as break above the 1.34 handle. However, ahead of the FOMC meeting, it is holding around the 1.34 handle, with support at 1.3383 and resistance at 1.3414. Despite the bullish break, the RSI is still held mostly between 40 and 60, showing lack of bullish momentum on the breakout…
So far there have been no surprises – consolidation is the name of the game this morning before ‘helicopter’ Ben gets to his press conference. The G10 major currencies have essentially traded sideways ahead of today’s FOMC economic projections, statement and rate announcements. However, for the EUR it has been a far different story up until this point. It seems that the single-currency bulls have become somewhat immune to negative EUR factors, allowing the currency to bid right up until…
US market traded higher on Monday with Dow Jones Industrial index clocking in another triple-digit gain (+0.73%). Underlining the strong bullish undertone in DJI after the brief foray below 15,000 last week. This increase is not limited to DJI only, with S&P 500 coming in with a slightly more impressive 0.76% gain. Analysts believe that the gain was spurred by speculators believing Wed’s FOMC meeting outcome will be a dovish one – which would mean continued QE3 purchases for the…
The following table lists the key economic data and other events that are due out during the week of June 17th – June 21st, with release times displayed for the GMT time zone.
The list also includes the current market consensus forecast for each event and indicates what sort of deviation might affect the forex market valuation of the indicated currency positively.
Resistance:
Initial: 1.3353, 1.3376/89, 1.3398/1.3403, 1.3433/34 and 1.3478/95.
Above: 1.3519, 1.3544/46, 1.3568, 1.3597, 1.3614, 1.3710, 1.3795/98, 1.3836, 1.3969, 1.4000, 1.4246, 1.4500/17, 1.4695 and 1.4939.
Support:
Initial: 1.3318/21, 1.3305/08, 1.3242/99, 1.3224, 1.3194/1.3201, 1.3177, 1.3126/61, 1.3093/1.3106, 1.3059/61, 1.3000/47, 1.2904/97, 1.2837/79, 1.2821, 1.2795/1.2801, 1.2744/54, 1.2623/92, 1.2588/89, 1.2501/19, 1.2407/96, 1.2381/91, 1.2323/33 and 1.2241/55.
Below: 1.2162, 1.2143, 1.2133, 1.2041 and 1.1938.
Resistance:
Initial: 0.9419, 94.55, 94.87, 94.90/95.07, 95.44, 95.79, 96.05, 96.55, 96.65/70, 97.00, 97.55, 97.79/83, 98.08, 98.48, 98.87, 99.26/94, 100.00, 100.22, 100.65, 101.25, 101.43, 102.50/52, 102.76, 103.30 and 130.73.
Above: 107.18, 108.42 and 110.47.
Support:
Initial: 94.0593.76, 93.78 93.68, 93.50, 93.17, 92.77/95, 92.14/30, 91.19, 90.85 and 90.20/32.
Below: 89.40/66, 88.05, 87.95/99 and 87.79.
Resistance:
Initial: 1.5714, 1.5781, 1.5803/07, 1.5825, 1.5844, 1.5874/77 and 1.5886/90.
Above: 1.5900/27, 1.5961, 1.5975/91, 1.6001/08, 1.6051/66, 1.6077, 1.6083/96, 1.6109/16, 1.6130/51, 1.6151/54 and 1.6177/98.
Support:
Initial: 1.5683/92, 1.5673, 1.5624/50, 1.5615, 1.5601/06, 1.5591, 1.5568, 1.5545, 1.5514/16, 1.5498/99, 1.5479, 1.5458, 1.5403/18, 1.5313/92, 1.5260/93, 1.5237/39, 1.5208/23, 1.5198, 1.5173/87, 1.5152/57, 1.5130, 1.5123, 1.5092, 1.5081, 1.5072, 1.5026/32 and 1.5013.
Below: 1.5007, 1.4985, 1.4966/67, 1.4884, 1.4872, 1.4830, 1.4785, 1.4345 and 1.4232.
Resistance:
Initial: 0.9585, 0.9592, 0.9620, 0.9664, 0.9689/96, 0.9710, 0.9732, 0.9791/94, 0.9841/96, 0.9900, 0.9925/83, 1.0000/18, 1.0052, 1.0099/1.0100, 1.0114/17, 1.0148/51, 1.0165/77, 1.0181/82, 1.0201, 1.0220/26, 1.0255/66,1.0280/92,1.0300/03, 1.0319/47, 1.0357, 1.0384/85, 1.0392/96, 1.0354/74, 1.0402/40, 1.0457/98, 1.0508/28 and 1.0561/66.
Above: 1.0572/84, 1.0596/1.0638, 1.0654, 1.0668/86, 1.0751/53, 1.0792/98, 1.0842/54, 1.1010, 1.1064 and 1.1079.
Support:
Initial: 0.9536/41, 0.9527, 0.9500, 0.9486, 0.9428/33, 0.9404, 0.9392/98 and 0.9383/86.
Below: 0.9325, 0.9220, 0.8770 and 0.8066.
Resistance:
Initial: 1.0172, 1.0178/82, 1.0199/1.0226, 1.0233/35, 1.0245/50, 1.0255, 1.0262, 1.0283/85, 1.0293/94, 1.0302/1.0312, 1.0334/53, 1.0379, 1.0392, 1.0415/81, 1.0500, 1.0506 and 1.0522.
Above: 1.0646/56, 1.0669 and 1.0742/85.
Support:
Initial: 1.0165, 1.0151/56, 1.0148, 1.0128/42, 1.0103/05, 1.0081/99, 1.0050/56, 1.0029/34, 1.0018, 1.0012, 0.9993/98, 0.9984, 0.9969, 0.9945/60, 0.9931, 0.9922, 0.9902/07, 0.9899, 0.9858, 0.9814/26 and 0.9724/99.
Below: 0.9686, 0.9645, 0.9631, 0.9525, 0.9445 and 0.9405.
Resistance:
Initial: 0.8052, 0.8078, 0.8100, 0.8109, 0.8116/53, 0.8160/69, 0.8172/95, 0.8204/14, 0.8221/24, 0.8237/95, 0.8312/16, 0.8322/50, 0.8359/65, 0.8376/0.8406, 0.8425/47, 0.8453/59, 0.8472/79 and 0.8487/89.
Above: 0.8504/08, 0.8532, 0.8561, 0.8571, 0.8584, 0.8605, 0.8641, 0.8671/74, 0.8764 and 0.8840.
Support:
Initial: 0.8030, 0.7996/0.8013, 0.7906/66, 0.7888, 0.7856, 0.7819, 0.7804, 0.7783/95 and 0.7723.
Below: 0.7605/76 and 0.7500/85.
Asset class prices continue to fluctuate, mostly on the market’s expectation of Fed tapering through QE easing later this year. The degree of ‘swaying volatility’ has already tapered somewhat, on the back of last week’s major positioning. Mind you, there are always a few last minute requirements that unnerve the weaker of market positions. This week’s highlights are primarily Fed related, including the FOMC statement, FOMC forecasts, and the chairman’s press conference.
The Fed’s communication skills had better be…
The following table lists the key economic data and other events that came out during the week of June 10th through June 14th, with release times displayed for the GMT time zone.
The list also indicates how much each release deviated from the market consensus forecast upon release, as well as what the affected major currency pair or pairs did after each event or set of events.
Forecast: Higher
Actual: Higher from a 1.3197 open to a 1.3335 close.
Forecast: Mildly Lower
Actual: Lower from a 97.85 open to a 94.64 close.
Forecast: Higher
Actual: Higher from a 1.5531 open to a 1.5684 close.
Forecast: Mildly Higher
Actual: Higher from a 0.9399 open to a 0.9581 close.
Forecast: Mildly Lower
Actual: Mildly Lower from a 1.0220 open to a 1.0174 close.
Forecast: Higher
Actual: Higher from a 0.7828 open to a 0.8058 close.
The bulls and bears have all got a whipping of similar magnitude in a brutal week for asset price movement. A week where both the shorts and longs have at one time managed to be squeezed, ending the jobbing opportunities of a few unnerved speculators as many try to second guess the Fed’s next move. So far, the accumulating price action is ending the week with global bourses on a firmer footing, and a dollar looking for air, as the…
The housing market simply isn’t improving at the rate many in the mainstream media are telling us. house_sandtimeHome prices are still significantly lower than what they were during 2005 and 2006. On its own, there is no housing market recovery. All we are witnessing is the mere reflection of easy money provided by our central bank…
RBNZ: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand left its official cash rate at its record low of 2.50%. The kiwi has been sliding in the last couple of months, but bank pres. Wheeler explains that the currency is still overvalued and wants to keep the interest rate low to avoid further strengthening that can hamper its export-heavy economy…
USD/JPY has settled down after a sharp drop in Tuesday trading. The pair is trading in the mid-96 range in Wednesday’s European session. In economic news, Japanese Core Machinery Orders posted a larger decline than expected, while the Corporate Goods Price Index posted its first reading above zero in over a year. There are three releases out of the US, although none are key events. Today’s only Japanese release is the BOJ Monthly Report. On Tuesday, the BOJ released a monetary…
Volume on yen futures was 471K contracts - that is the second highest (after 6/7) on record. Tentative support on $USDCHF; but after that huge swing, I don't take it seriously. http://t.co/BhCgRaaLSx
"The End of Day #Forex Report. A look at the new trading day ahead."( http://t.co/gpwgsWvEC1 ) Biggest pip-based drop for $USDJPY since 5/6/2010: http://t.co/pUgdbhoHEY "#USDTRY off highs as riots on the streets in Istanbul"( http://t.co/kVKcgOsGIY )
And guess what happened after the +4% sell off in USD/JPY in March 2011? = G7 intervention
“@daytradersfx: Well not a bad morning, closed two trades for a total of 138 pips, thanks $EURUSD and $GBPJPY” And one for charity too! Found this really old article I wrote on USD/JPY: Top 10 Largest Moves and How the BoJ Responded http://t.co/lTepJjIoMW If $EURJPY keeps up this pace, I may be jumping in again faster than expected... http://t.co/0VKEIS3Mv7 Biggest one day sell-off in USD/JPY since March 11, 2011 - aftermath of the earthquake & tsunami that hit Japan What does it take to break gold from this wedge... http://t.co/6FWE9xvkM5 "#USDJPY moves below 100 day MA and the price plunges another 50 pips"( http://t.co/n6tuqQcVZJ ) Alright, I need to take another portion of my $USDJPY short off (+385). If it breaks 95 convincingly, I'll re-up. Next level of escalation for the $USDJPY's gradual turn: breaking this trendline at 95: http://t.co/CA9BDM2VU1
$USDJPY Stutter-Step Sell Targets Last Week’s Low - http://t.co/qAOs1KDe3P #forex #USDJPY
And if you don't like what you see, let me know--appreciate the feedback either way. If you like what you see, sign up for my reports via e-mail in PDF format: http://t.co/2AocNzIh9g (I really hate spam, I'm sure you do, too) Fed's June rate decision scheduled for next Wednesday. Keep it in mind as the 'Taper' debate rages on Is today the start of a major Australian Dollar bounce? I think so. Here's why: http://t.co/RGWFdsBLDT Decelerating pattern back into former support as new resistance for $SPY. Watching 1,600: http://t.co/tlRF8QPhYm ...falling demand and higher yield on med-duration debt not a good sign for a Fed contemplating an exit. Treasury sells 3-year paper with a yield of 0.581% (highest since 7/15/2011), bid-to-cover of 2.95 (lowest 12/10/2010). How many times in the past 3 decades has $AUDUSD moved in over 5 straight weeks in one direction: http://t.co/PRbNvwHPoq
RT @Fibarchie: @ForexStopHunter Thanks Dale for the #fxstreet interview. catch it here http://t.co/Wyn8FBQ60Y $es $cl $gbpusd Your Welcome:) This was the $EURJPY chart I was looking at yesterday. Played well, but more places to jump back on http://t.co/ob6OyMTWjz Argument that AUD could weaken on RBA cuts is valid, but look at key interest rates/differentials: http://t.co/OqqsS9mg2u
Who on my stream called AUDUSD down to 9330about 10 days ago to end a trend sequence? Kudos.. Asmussen earlier touched on a critical question most overlook:what if a country didn't meet OMT conditions? Either EZ exit or program revamp
@DRodriguezFX good looks...this feels like one of those that has had so many false bottoms that when the bottom does form-few will trade it Bundesbank Weidmann said that monetary policy is not meant to buy time for fiscal efforts. That has been a key Fed and BoJ effort... That analysis is the brainchild of @JamieSaettele, by the way. He did a great writeup on newspaper/magazine headlines in his book. .@KKerrFX pointed out lack of irony in sensationalist BI headlines, but really I posted that bc "The Australian" said "Plummets" in title. Australian Dollar bounce might be start of bigger recovery. One clue: sensationalist newspaper headlines: http://t.co/IWIIr7gnF5 Ouch. Paulson Gold Fund dropped 13% in May and down 54% since the start of the year - Bberg RT @NicTrades: It's Tuesday. We whacked it down so you could buy it. You are welcome America > Class.. I took a $EURJPY short at 130.75 before I got on my plane yesterday - before it was delayed for hours. Now +200. I'm going to book. Patience kept me with my $USDJPY short. Not back to last week's spike low at 95, but I'm still +300 in the money on the remaining exposure
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