Key Fundamental Forex Events for the Week of September 15th through September 19th
The following table lists the key economic data and other events that came out during the week of September 15th through September 19th, with release times displayed for the GMT time zone.
The list also indicates how much each release deviated from the market consensus forecast upon release, as well as what the affected major currency pair or pairs did after each event or set of events.

Monday, September 15th

  •  All Day JPY Bank Holiday
  •  2:30am AUD New Motor Vehicle Sales -1.8% versus last -1.3% expected.  The currency rose.
  •  8:15am CHF PPI -0.2% versus 0.2% expected.  The currency fell.
  •  1:30pm USD Empire State Manufacturing Index 27.5 versus 16.4 expected.  The currency rose overall.
  •  2:15pm USD Capacity Utilization Rate 78.8% versus 79.3% expected.  The currency rose overall.
  •  2:15pm USD Industrial Production -0.1% versus 0.4% expected.  The currency rose overall.

Tuesday, September 16th

  •  1:00am AUD RBA Assistant Governor Kent said that, “This better growth of non-mining activity often gets missed given all the focus on the resources boom. While this improvement is welcome, a key question is how durable the improvement will be? It might even gather a bit more steam, thereby helping to drive overall growth to an above-trend pace at some point. Such developments are possible but by no means certain. They depend in part on non-mining business investment, which is the motivation for my talk today.”  The currency rose.
  •  2:30am AUD Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes noted that, “Housing prices were continuing to increase in the larger cities and members considered that the risks associated with this trend warranted ongoing close observation. On the other hand, the exchange rate remained above most estimates of its fundamental value, particularly given the declines in key commodity prices and, overall, had offered less assistance to date than would normally be expected in achieving balanced growth in the economy.”  The currency rose.
  •  6:30am JPY BOJ Governor Kuroda said that, “When I spoke to you last November, I said that under QQE there was a positive turnaround in areas such as economic activity, financial markets, and people’s sentiment and expectations. Since then, QQE has continued to steadily exert its intended effects. The year-on-year rate of change in the consumer price index (CPI, excluding fresh food) was minus 0.4 percent in April last year when QQE was introduced, but it has improved since then, recently registering 1.3 percent excluding the direct effects of the consumption tax hike.”  The currency rose.
  •  9:30am GBP CPI 1.5% versus 1.5% expected.  The currency rose.
  •  9:30am GBP PPI Input -0.6% versus 0.1% expected.  The currency rose.
  •  9:30am GBP RPI 2.4% versus 2.5% expected.  The currency rose.
  •  10:00am EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment survey 6.9 versus 5.2 expected.  The currency rose.
  •  10:00am EUR EZ ZEW Economic Sentiment survey 14.2 versus 21.3 expected.  The currency rose.
  •  1:30pm CAD Manufacturing Sales 2.5% versus 1.1% expected.  The currency rose.
  •  1:30pm USD PPI 0.0% versus 0.1% expected.  The currency fell overall.
  •  1:30pm USD Core PPI 0.1% versus 0.1% expected.  The currency fell overall.
  •  2:00pm USD TIC Long-Term Purchases -18.6B versus 24.3B expected.  The currency fell overall.
  •  5:45pm CAD BOC Governor Poloz said that, “As entrepreneurs, I’m sure you know that global trade has recovered only partially, as the world economy is still working through the fallout from the crisis. Compounding the issue for exporters, of course, has been the relative strength of the loonie. While it has come down in the past several months, it is still more than 40 per cent higher than it was in the early 2000s.Many people in this room may be wondering why the Bank of Canada did not do more to limit the appreciation of the loonie, or to weaken it after it rose. After all, we have said time and again that stronger exports are needed to bring our economy home.” The currency rose.
  •  11:45pm NZD Current Account -1.07B versus -1.04B expected.  The currency rose.

Wednesday, September 17th

  •  9:30am GBP Average Earnings Index 0.6% versus 0.5% expected.  The currency fell.
  •  9:30am GBP Claimant Count Change -37.2K versus -29.7K expected.  The currency fell.
  •  9:30am GBP MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes 0-0-9 versus 0-0-9 expected.  The currency fell.
  •  9:30am GBP MPC Official Bank Rate Votes 2-0-7 versus 2-0-7 expected.  The currency fell.
  •  9:30am GBP Unemployment Rate 6.2% versus 6.3% expected.  The currency fell.
  •  10:00am EUR Final CPI 0.4% versus 0.3% expected.  The currency fell.
  •  1:30pm USD Core CPI 0.0% versus 0.2% expected.  The currency rose overall.
  •  1:30pm USD CPI -0.2% versus 0.1% expected.  The currency rose overall.
  •  1:30pm USD Current Account -99B versus -114B expected.  The currency rose overall.
  •  3:00pm USD NAHB Housing Market Index 59 versus 56 expected.  The currency rose overall.
  •  3:30pm USD Crude Oil Inventories 3.7M versus last -1.0M expected.  The currency rose overall.
  •  7:00pm USD FOMC Economic Projections noted that, “These charts are based on policymakers’ assessments of appropriate monetary policy, which, by definition, is the future path of policy that each participant deems most likely to foster outcomes for economic activity and inflation that best satisfy his or her interpretation of the Federal Reserve’s dual objectives of maximum employment and stable prices.”  The currency rose overall.
  •  7:00pm USD FOMC Rate Statement noted that, “When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent. The Committee currently anticipates that, even after employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run.”  The currency rose overall.
  •  7:00pm USD Federal Funds Rate Decision <0.25% versus unchanged at <0.25% expected.  The currency rose overall.
  •  7:30pm USD FOMC Press Conference: Fed Chair Janet Yellen said that, “These developments continue the trend of gradual progress toward our employment objective. But the labor market has yet to fully recover. There are still too many people who want jobs but cannot find them, too many who are working part-time but would prefer full-time work. And too many who are not searching for a job but would be if the labor market were stronger.” The currency rose overall.
  •  11:45pm NZD GDP 0.7% versus 0.6% expected.  The currency fell.

Thursday, September 18th

  •  12:50am JPY Trade Balance -0.92T versus -0.99T expected.  The currency fell.
  •  7:00am CHF Trade Balance 1.39B versus 2.56B expected.  The currency rose.
  •  7:35am JPY BOJ Governor Kuroda said that the impact of the sales tax hike was waning gradually and that the BOJ would make further adjustments as necessary to help the recovering Japanese economy.  The currency rose.
  •  8:30am CHF Libor Rate <0.25% versus unchanged at <0.25% expected.  The currency rose.
  •  8:30am CHF SNB Monetary Policy Assessment noted that, “The economic outlook has deteriorated considerably. The Swiss franc is still high. With the three-month Libor close to zero, the minimum exchange rate remains the key instrument to avoid an undesirable tightening of monetary conditions. The SNB will therefore continue to enforce the minimum exchange rate with utmost determination. For this purpose, it is prepared to purchase foreign currency in unlimited quantities. If necessary, it will take further measures immediately.”  The currency rose.
  •  9:30am GBP Retail Sales 0.4% versus 0.4% expected.  The currency rose.
  •  11:00am GBP CBI Industrial Order Expectations -4 versus 9 expected.  The currency rose.
  •  1:30pm CAD Foreign Securities Purchases 5.30B versus 2.47B expected.  The currency rose.
  •  1:30pm USD Building Permits 1.00M versus 1.04M expected.  The currency fell overall.
  •  1:30pm USD Weekly Initial Jobless Claims 280K versus 312K expected.  The currency fell overall.
  •  1:30pm USD Housing Starts 0.96M versus 1.04M expected.  The currency fell overall.
  •  1:45pm USD Fed Chair Yellen said that, “The financial crisis and the Great Recession demonstrated, in a dramatic and unmistakable manner, how extraordinarily vulnerable are the large share of American families with few assets to fall back on”.  The currency fell overall.
  •  3:00pm USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index 22.5 versus 22.8 expected.  The currency fell overall.
  •  All Day GBP Scottish Independence Vote: 55 percent voted against versus 45 percent for independence. The currency rose.

Friday, September 19th

  •  1:30pm CAD Core CPI 0.5% versus 0.2% expected.  The currency fell.
  •  1:30pm CAD Wholesale Sales -0.3% versus 0.8% expected.  The currency fell.
  •  1:30pm CAD CPI 0.0% versus -0.1% expected.  The currency fell.

Saturday, September 20th

  •  Day 1 ALL G20 Meetings have not yet occurred. Hawkish comments are good for currencies.

Technical Recap for the Majors This Week

EURUSD:
Forecast: Mildly Higher
Actual: Lower from a 1.2967 open to a 1.2853 close.

USDJPY:
Forecast: Mildly Higher
Actual: Higher from a 107.28 open to a 108.84 close.
    
GBPUSD:
Forecast: Mildly Higher
Actual: Mildly higher from a 1.6269 open to a 1.6319 close.

AUDUSD:
Forecast: Lower
Actual: Mildly Lower from a 0.9014 open to a 0.8936 close.

USDCAD:
Forecast: Mildly Higher
Actual: Mildly higher from a 1.1086 open to a 1.0950 close.

NZDUSD:
Forecast: Lower
Actual: Mildly lower from a 0. 8148 open to a 0. 8121 close.

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GBPUSD sees cap at 1.6646, likely 1.6525 for downside risk to resurface

  • A further bounce within as now broader range environment, we now see defined by 1.6646 and 1.6162.
  • However, with the Scottish referendum over, we now see a likely upside capped by the higher level for Friday and into next week, potentially with the current rebound peak at 1.6525 proving a cap.
  • The mounting risk is for a roll back lower to the range, for 1.6400/6390 and maybe 1.6245.
  • Then for a re-energizing of the bear trend from July, through 1.6162 and 1.6050.

WHAT CHANGES THIS?

  • Downside: Below 1.6162 sees risk lower through 1.6050 for the 50% retrace at 1.6005, psychological 1.6000 and the 1.5854 weekly swing low from Q4 2013.
  • Upside: Above 1.6646 aims higher for 1.6740 and 1.6844.

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Daily GBPUSD Chart

 

Weekly GBPUSD Chart

 

 

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GBPUSD range theme: 1.6500 and 1.6162 breakout parameters

  • A better bounce effort to push above 1.6342, to ease bear pressures for a switch to a neutral range theme, unsurprising ahead of the Scottish referendum on Thursday.
  • We now see the range defined by 1.6500 and 1.6162.
  • We still see a skewed bias for a bearish breakout however, and even given a more bullish tone, see 1.6500 capping for a re-energizing of the bear threat from July.
  • WHAT CHANGES THIS?
  • Upside: Above 1.6500 aims higher for 1.6646 and 1.6740.
  • Downside: Below 1.6162 sees risk lower through 1.6050 for the 50% retrace at 1.6005, psychological 1.6000 and the 1.5854 weekly swing low from Q4 2013.

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Daily GBPUSD Chart

 

Weekly GBPUSD Chart

 

 

 

 

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AUDUSD bearish extension threat

  • An unexpected and far better recovery effort Tuesday, to probe above our .9110 level, but whilst below .9143/45 and better resistance at .9218/19, we see bias for a roll back to the bounce range into midweek and for renewed bear pressures later into this week.
  • We aim back for modest support at .9055/50 and .9010/05, then for a better push through the .8980 retrace support/
  • A break here would then see the September threat lower for .8925, maybe .8890.

WHAT CHANGES THIS?

  • Above .9110 eases bear risks; through .9219 signals a neutral tone, only shifting positive above .9403.

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4 Hour AUDUSD Chart

 

Daily AUDUSD Chart

 

 

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AUDUSD bearish extension threat

  • An unexpected and far better recovery effort Tuesday, to probe above our .9110 level, but whilst below .9143/45 and better resistance at .9218/19, we see bias for a roll back to the bounce range into midweek and for renewed bear pressures later into this week.
  • We aim back for modest support at .9055/50 and .9010/05, then for a better push through the .8980 retrace support/
  • A break here would then see the September threat lower for .8925, maybe .8890.

WHAT CHANGES THIS?

  • Above .9110 eases bear risks; through .9219 signals a neutral tone, only shifting positive above .9403.

Download our full report with latest screencast & levels here: http://members.marketchartist.com/Daily/AUDUSD.pdf

 

4 Hour AUDUSD Chart

 

Daily AUDUSD Chart

 

 

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USDJPY bullish extension threat

  • An inside pattern dip, but holding above minor support at 107.05/00, with better foundations seen at 106.67/65 and 1.0605.
  • The previous surge through the secular high at 105.48 and a key long term barrier at 105.60 (61.8% retrace of the 2007-11 bear down leg) aims for higher targets for September.
  • Into mid-September, the bias is still higher, for 108.00, 108.35 and 108.65.
  • September/ October risk is to a key high from 2008 at 110.57!

WHAT CHANGES THIS?

  • Below 106.65 eases bull risks; through 106.05 signals a neutral tone, only shifting negative below 104.68.

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Daily USDJPY Chart

 

Monthly USDJPY Chart

 

 

 

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EURUSD bearish extension threat

  • A modest pop higher Friday through minor resistance, 1.2965, but still contained below 1.2995 still hesitant in the very near term to extend the bear trend.
  • However, the breach last week of a key “neckline” support from 2012 still leaves a more bearish mid-month tone.
  • We look for 1.2995 to try to cap and still aim lower through mid-September, for an important cluster of support from the 2012-14 retracement at 1.2785 and key 2013 cycle lows at 1.2765 and 1.2745.
  • Through here sees a significant 2012 weekly swing low at 1.2662.

WHAT CHANGES THIS?

  • Above 1.3040 eases bear risks; through 1.3160 signals a neutral tone, only shifting positive above 1.3220.

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Daily EURUSD Chart

 

Weekly EURUSD Chart

 

 

 

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Key Fundamental Forex Events and Forecasts for the Coming Week

The following table lists the key economic data and other events that are due out during the week of September 15th – September 19th, with release times displayed for the GMT time zone.

The list also includes the current market consensus forecast for each event and indicates what sort of deviation might affect the forex market valuation of the indicated currency positively.

Monday, September 15th

  •  All Day JPY Bank Holiday
  •  2:30am AUD New Motor Vehicle Sales (last -1.3%, > good for currency)
  •  8:15am CHF PPI (0.2% expected, > good for currency)
  •  1:30pm USD Empire State Manufacturing Index (16.4 expected, > good for currency)
  •  2:15pm USD Capacity Utilization Rate (79.3% expected, > good for currency)
  •  2:15pm USD Industrial Production (0.4% expected, > good for currency)

Tuesday, September 16th

  •  1:00am AUD RBA Assistant Governor Kent speaks (hawkish = good for currency)
  •  2:30am AUD Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (hawkish = good for currency)
  •  6:30am JPY BOJ Governor Kuroda speaks (hawkish = good for currency)
  •  9:30am GBP CPI (1.5% expected, > good for currency)
  •  9:30am GBP PPI Input (0.1% expected, > good for currency)
  •  9:30am GBP RPI (2.5% expected, > good for currency)
  •  10:00am EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment survey (5.2 expected, > good for currency)
  •  10:00am EUR EZ ZEW Economic Sentiment survey (21.3 expected, > good for currency)
  •  1:30pm CAD Manufacturing Sales (1.1% expected, > good for currency)
  •  1:30pm USD PPI (0.1% expected, > good for currency)
  •  1:30pm USD Core PPI (0.1% expected, > good for currency)
  •  2:00pm USD TIC Long-Term Purchases (24.3B expected, > good for currency)
  •  5:45pm CAD BOC Governor Poloz speaks (hawkish = good for currency)
  •  11:45pm NZD Current Account (-1.04B expected, > good for currency)

Wednesday, September 17th

  •  9:30am GBP Average Earnings Index (0.5% expected, > good for currency)
  •  9:30am GBP Claimant Count Change (-29.7K expected, < good for currency)
  •  9:30am GBP MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes (0-0-9 expected, > good for currency)
  •  9:30am GBP MPC Official Bank Rate Votes (2-0-7 expected, > good for currency)
  •  9:30am GBP Unemployment Rate (6.3% expected, < good for currency)
  •  10:00am EUR Final CPI (0.3% expected, > good for currency)
  •  1:30pm USD Core CPI (0.2% expected, > good for currency)
  •  1:30pm USD CPI (0.1% expected, > good for currency)
  •  1:30pm USD Current Account (-114B expected, > good for currency)
  •  3:00pm USD NAHB Housing Market Index (56 expected, > good for currency)
  •  3:30pm USD Crude Oil Inventories (last -1.0M expected, > good for currency)
  •  7:00pm USD FOMC Economic Projections (hawkish = good for currency)
  •  7:00pm USD FOMC Rate Statement (hawkish = good for currency)
  •  7:00pm USD Federal Funds Rate Decision (unchanged at <0.25% expected, > good for currency)
  •  7:30pm USD FOMC Press Conference (hawkish = good for currency)
  •  11:45pm NZD GDP (0.6% expected, > good for currency)

Thursday, September 18th

  •  12:50am JPY Trade Balance (-0.99T expected, > good for currency)
  •  7:00am CHF Trade Balance (2.56B expected, > good for currency)
  •  7:35am JPY BOJ Governor Kuroda speaks (hawkish = good for currency)
  •  8:30am CHF Libor Rate (unchanged at <0.25% expected, > good for currency)
  •  8:30am CHF SNB Monetary Policy Assessment (hawkish = good for currency)
  •  9:30am GBP Retail Sales (0.4% expected, > good for currency)
  •  11:00am GBP CBI Industrial Order Expectations (9 expected, > good for currency)
  •  1:30pm CAD Foreign Securities Purchases (2.47B expected, > good for currency)
  •  1:30pm USD Building Permits (1.04M expected, > good for currency)
  •  1:30pm USD Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (312K expected, < good for currency)
  •  1:30pm USD Housing Starts (1.04M expected, > good for currency)
  •  1:45pm USD Fed Chair Yellen speaks (hawkish = good for currency)
  •  3:00pm USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index (22.8 expected, > good for currency)
  •  All Day GBP Scottish Independence Vote (A vote against independence is good for the currency)

Friday, September 19th

  •  1:30pm CAD Core CPI (0.2% expected, > good for currency)
  •  1:30pm CAD Wholesale Sales (0.8% expected, > good for currency)
  •  1:30pm CAD CPI (-0.1% expected, > good for currency)

Saturday, September 20th

  •  Day 1 ALL G20 Meetings (hawkish = good for currency)

Technical Forecast and Levels to Watch for the Majors This Week
 
EURUSD: Mildly Higher
Resistance:
Initial: 1.2978/98, 1.3000/03, 1.3047, 1.3059/66, 1.3077, 1.3093/1.3109, 1.3126, 1.3130, 1.3152/65, 1.3172/77, 1.3187/1.3206, 1.3220/42, 1.3294/99, 1.3305/08, 1.3318/24, 1.3332/35, 1.3344/53, 1.3366, 1.3376/89, 1.3398/1.3416, 1.3432/44, 1.3451, 1.3473/82, 1.3489/1.3524, 1.3538, 1.3546/88, 1.3597, 1.3602/15, 1.3621/31, 1.3639/50, 1.3663/76, 1.3682/86, 1.3685/1.3710, 1.3714/16, 1.3731/39, 1.3748, 1.3758/74, 1.3784/98, 1.3807, 1.3810/20, 1.3824, 1.3832/36, 1.3845/54, 1.3864, 1.3875/78, 1.3888/92, 1.3905/14, 1.3937, 1.3947, 1.3966/69, 1.3993/1.4000, 1.4246 and 1.4500/17.
Above: 1.4695 and 1.4939.
Support:
Initial: 1.2919/21, 1.2904, 1.2837/79, 1.2821, 1.2795/1.2805, and 1.2744/54,
Below: 1.2623/92, 1.2588/89, 1.2501/19, 1.2407/96, 1.2381/91, 1.2323/33, 1.2241/55, 1.2162, 1.2143, 1.2133, 1.204132 and 1.1938.

USDJPY: Mildly Higher
Resistance:
Initial: 107.18 and 107.39.
Above: 108.42, 108.98, 110.39/47 and 111.60.
Support:
Initial: 105.70, 105.41/43, 105.30/33, 105.18, 104.83/91, 104.63/68, 104.36, 104.07/26, 103.91, 103.82, 103.73/75, 103.37/43, 103.30, 102.92/103.08, 102.57/82, 102.49/52, 102.33/40, 102.26, 102.13/14, 101.90/102.04, 101.60/83, 101.50/56, 101.42/43, 101.30/32, 101.08/27, 100.82/86, 100.75, 100.60/65, 100.38/48, 100.22 and 100.00.
Below: 99.94, 99.66, 99.40, 99.25, 99.13/14, 99.00, 98.84/92, 98.63/72, 98.48/53, 98.28, 98.20, 98.08, 97.75/83, 97.49/63, 96.90/97.05, 96.81, 96.65/70, 96.55/56, 96.05, 95.79/80, 95.44, 94.90/95.07, 94.87, 94.55, 94.19, 94.05, 93.76, 93.78 93.68, 93.50, 93.17, 92.77/95, 92.14/30, 91.19, 90.85, 90.20/32, 89.40/66, 88.05, 87.95/99 and 87.79.

GBPUSD: Mildly Higher
Resistance:
Initial: 1.6280/86, 1.6290, 1.6298/1.6309, 1.6336, 1.6348, 1.6376, 1.6380/83, 1.6394, 1.6400, 1.6417/18, 1.6441/44, 1.6458/65, 1.6484, 1.6496, 1.6516, 1.6534, 1.6548, 1.6576/86, 1.6592, 1.6611/17, 1.6624, 1.6640/56, 1.6665/67, 1.6683, 1.6692/98, 1.6716/24, 1.6730/37, 1.6745, 1.6755, 1.6765/68, 1.6777, 1.6785, 1.6800/02, 1.6812, 1.6819/22, 1.6831/44, 1.6874/87, 1.6902/09, 1.6919/20, 1.6951, 1.6960, 1.6995, 1.7000, 1.7010, 1.7035, 1.7042/51, 1.7058/62, 1.7084, 1.7094/99, 1.7107, 1.7130, 1.7167, 1.7176/78 and 1.7190.
Above: 1.7440.
Support:
Initial: 1.6251/62, 1.6239/46, 1.6222/24, 1.6215/16, 1.6204/15, 1.6195/98, 1.6177, 1.6155, 1.6130/36, 1.6109/21, 1.6083/96, 1.6071/77, 1.6051/66, 1.6001/08, 1.5975/91, 1.5956/61, 1.5948, 1.5900/27, 1.5886/93, 1.5874/77, 1.5853, 1.5844, 1.5825, 1.5803/07, 1.5775/81, 1.5750, 1.5714/17, 1.5683/92, 1.5673, 1.5624/56, 1.5601/15, 1.5591, 1.5561/68, 1.5538/45 and 1.5514/16.
Below: 1.5498/99, 1.5476/79, 1.5458, 1.5434, 1.5427, 1.5403/21, 1.5313/92, 1.5304, 1.5293, 1.5260/62, 1.5237/39, 1.5208/23, 1.5198, 1.5173/87, 1.5164, 1.5152/57, 1.5130, 1.5123, 1.5101, 1.5092, 1.5081, 1.5072/75, 1.5026/32, 1.5013, 1.5007. 1.4985, 1.4966/67, 1.4884, 1.4872, 1.4856, 1.4830, 1.4812 and 1.4785, 1.4345 and 1.4232.

AUDUSD: Lower
Resistance:
Initial: 0.9035, 0.9041, 0.9042/48, 0.9054/57, 0.9061/66, 0.9072/79, 0.9102, 0.9110/19, 0.9127/37, 0.9147, 0.9162/67, 0.9179/89, 0.9200/08, 0.9214/26, 0.9232/74, 0.9286/94, 0.9304, 0.9311, 0.9328/34, 0.9343/53, 0.9359, 0.9386/0.9410, 0.9420/24, 0.9428/33, 0.9440/47, 0.9455/57, 0.9469 and 0.9483/86.
Above: 0.9500, 0.9524/27, 0.9536/42, 0.9571, 0.9585, 0.9592, 0.9620, 0.9640, 0.9664, 0.9676, 0.9689/96, 0.9710, 0.9732, 0.9757, 0.9791/94, 0.9841/96, 0.9900, 0.9925/83, 1.0000/18, 1.0052, 1.0099/1.0100, 1.0114/17, 1.0148/51, 1.0165/77 and 1.0181/82.
Support:
Initial: 0.8994/0.9008, 0.8981/87, 0.8967/69, 0.8951/57, 0.8923/36, 0.8918, 0.8906/12, 0.8887/92, 0.8869, 0.8857/61, 0.8842/47, 0.8819/25, 0.8762/70, 0.8729, 0.8693, 0.8659, 0.8578 and 0.8512.
Below: 0.8066 and 0.7674.

USDCAD: Mildly Higher
Resistance:
Initial: 1.1089, 1.1099, 1.1102/09, 1.1116/32, 1.1141, 1.1152, 1.1158, 1.1172/73, 1.1194, 1.1223/29 and 1.1270/77.
Above: 1.1723, 1.2985, 1.3007/14 and 1.3062.
Support:
Initial: 1.1069/70, 1.1030/53, 1.0982/1.1001, 1.0962/66, 1.0954/59, 1.0941/45, 1.0934, 1.0925/28, 1.0915, 1.0903/09, 1.0894,1.0873/86, 0852/59, 1.0849, 1.0839/40, 1.0820/27, 1.0813, 1.0793/96, 1.0742/85, 1.0736, 1.0726, 1.0717, 1.0702/09, 1.0693, 1.0668/79, 1.0646/60, 1.0619/29, 1.0608,1.0580/87, 1.0567/71, 1.0558/59, 1.0546, 1.0519/22, 1.0506, 1.0496/1.0502, 1.0471/87, 1.0459, 1.0441/44, 1.0414/18, 1.0401/04, 1.0390/92, 1.0379, 1.0355/68, 1.0333, 1.0324, 1.0309/12, 1.0283/1.0305, 1.0270/76, 1.0262, 1.0244/55, 1.0233/35, 1.0199/1.0226, 1.0172/82, 1.0165, 1.0151/56, 1.0148, 1.0128/42, 1.0103/05, 1.0081/99, 1.0050/56, 1.0029/34, 1.0018 and 1.0012.
Below: 0.9993/98, 0.9984, 0.9969, 0.9945/60, 0.9931, 0.9922, 0.9902/07, 0.9899, 0.9858, 0.9814/26, 0.9724/99, 0.9686, 0.9645, 0.9631, 0.9525, 0.9445 and 0.9405.
    
NZDUSD: Lower
Resistance:
Initial: 0.8147/53, 0.8160/71, 0.8186, 0.8195/97, 0.8204/14, 0.8221/41, 0.8250/55, 0.8263, 0.8268/71, 0.8280, 0.8285/87, 0.8291/95, 0.8302/16, 0.8322/66, 0.8376, 0.8389, 0.8406, 0.8413, 0.8421/61, 0.8472/79, 0.8487/89 and 0.8499.
Above: 0.8504/18, 0.8523/37, 0.8542/53, 0.8560/61, 0.8571/78, 0.8584/90, 0.8602/05, 0.8633/41, 0.8647/53, 0.8660/67, 0.8671/74, 0.8693/0.8700, 0.8712/18, 0.8734, 0.8744, 0.8764/77, 0.8789, 0.8792, 0.8821, 0.8834 and 0.8840.
Support:
Initial: 0.8114/37, 0.8100/09, 0.8078/82, 0.8049/60, 0.8030, 0.7989/0.8013, 0.7967, 0.7932, 0.7903/06, 0.7888, 0.7872, 0.7856/57, 0.7838/46, 0.7829, 0.7819 and 0.7804.
Below: 0.7795, 0.7783, 0.7760, 0.7751/58, 0.7731/34, 0.7705/23, 0.7697, 0.7681/86, 0.7605/76 and 0.7500/85.

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The following table lists the key economic data and other events that came out during the week of September 8th through September 12th, with release times displayed for the GMT time zone.

The list also indicates how much each release deviated from the market consensus forecast upon release, as well as what the affected major currency pair or pairs did after each event or set of events.

Monday, September 8th

  • 12:50am JPY Current Account 0.10T versus 0.18T expected.  The currency fell.
  • 12:50am JPY Final GDP -1.8% versus -1.8% expected.  The currency fell.
  • All Day CNY Bank Holiday
  • 2:30am AUD ANZ Job Advertisements 1.5% versus 0.3% expected.  The currency fell.
  • Tentative CNY Trade Balance 49.8B versus 40.8B expected.
  • 7:00am EUR German Trade Balance 22.2B versus 17.3B expected.  The currency fell.
  • 8:00am GBP Halifax HPI 0.1% versus 0.2% expected.  The currency fell.
  • 8:15am CHF CPI 0.0% versus -0.1% expected.  The currency fell.
  • 8:15am CHF Retail Sales -0.6% versus 3.7% expected.  The currency fell.
  • 1:30pm CAD Building Permits 11.8% versus -4.2% expected.  The currency fell.
  • 1:45pm USD Treasury Secretary Lew said that, “Only a change in the law can shut the door, and only tax reform can solve the problems in our tax code that lead to inversions, right now, our tax system rewards U.S. corporations when they buy foreign companies and then declare that they are based overseas …, By effectively renouncing their citizenship, but remaining here, these companies are eroding America’s corporate tax base.” The currency rose.

 Tuesday, September 9th

  • 12:50am JPY Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes noted that, “Japan’s economy has continued to recover moderately as a trend, although the subsequent decline in demand following the front-loaded increase prior to the consumption tax hike has been observed. Overseas economies — mainly advanced economies — have been recovering, albeit with a lackluster performance still seen in part. Exports have shown some weakness. Business fixed investment has increased moderately as corporate profits have improved. Public investment has more or less leveled off at a high level.” The currency fell.
  • 12:50am JPY Tertiary Industry Activity 0.0% versus 0.3% expected.  The currency fell.
  • 2:30am AUD NAB Business Confidence 8 versus last 11 expected.  The currency fell.
  • 2:30am AUD Home Loans 0.3% versus 1.1% expected.  The currency fell.
  • 9:30am GBP BOE Governor Carney said that, “The Great Recession led to enormous dislocations in advanced economy labour markets. In many economies unemployment and underemployment skyrocketed. Youth unemployment reached perilous levels. Central banks responded with unprecedented monetary stimulus. That was consistent with their price stability mandates. And it recognised the threat that the recession might permanently scar the workforce. As the recovery in many advanced economies has evolved, central banks are assessing the extent of structural changes in labour markets and are grappling with what they mean for monetary policy.”   The currency rose.
  • 9:30am GBP Manufacturing Production 0.3% versus 0.3% expected.  The currency rose.
  • 9:30am GBP Trade Balance -10.2B versus -9.1B expected.  The currency rose.
  • 1:15pm CAD Housing Starts 192K versus 197K expected.  The currency fell.
  • 3:00pm GBP NIESR GDP Estimate 0.6% versus last 0.6% expected.  The currency rose.
  • 3:00pm USD JOLTS Job Openings 4.67M versus 4.72M expected.  The currency rose.

 Wednesday, September 10th

  • 12:50am JPY Core Machinery Orders 3.5% versus 4.1% expected.  The currency fell.
  • 1:30am AUD Westpac Consumer Sentiment -4.6% versus last 3.8% expected.  The currency fell.
  • 7:45am EUR French Industrial Production 0.2% versus -0.4% expected.  The currency fell.
  • 10:33am EUR German 10-year Bond Auction 1.05 average yield and a 1.4 bid to cover ratio versus last average yield 1.08 percent and a 1.6 bid to cover ratio expected.  The currency fell.
  • 2:45pm GBP Inflation Report Hearings’ BOE Governor Carney said that, “It is my judgment that, consistent with the guidance and our forecast, as the economy has continued to normalize, we have moved closer to the point at which Bank Rate will need to start to rise in order to achieve the inflation target”.   The currency rose.
  • 3:30pm USD Crude Oil Inventories -1.0M versus last -0.9M expected.  The currency rose.
  • 6:01pm USD 10-year Bond Auction 2.54 average yield and a2.7 bid to cover ratio versus last average yield 2.44 percent and a 2.8 bid to cover ratio. The currency rose.
  • 10:00pm NZD Official Cash Rate Decision 3.50% versus unchanged at 3.50% expected.  The currency fell.
  • 10:00am NZD RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement noted that, “Tradables inflation is expected to remain near or below zero for some time. Low global inflation, reflecting the slow absorption of spare capacity in advanced economies is weighing on international prices of New Zealand’s imports. At the same time, the high New Zealand dollar exchange rate and a competitive domestic environment are slowing inflation in the domestic prices of tradable goods.”  The currency fell.
  • 10:00am NZD RBNZ Press Conference: RBNZ Governor Graeme Wheeler said that, “It is prudent to undertake a period of monitoring and assessment before considering further policy adjustment”.  The currency fell.
  • 10:00am NZD RBNZ Rate Statement noted that, “The exchange rate has yet to adjust materially to the lower commodity prices. Its current level remains unjustified and unsustainable. We expect a further significant depreciation, which should be reinforced as monetary policy in the US begins to normalise. The economy appears to be adjusting to the policy measures taken by the Bank over the past year. House price inflation continues to ease, despite strong net immigration. CPI inflation remains moderate, reflecting subdued wage increases, well-anchored inflation expectations, weak global inflation, and the high New Zealand dollar.”  The currency fell.

Thursday, September 11th

  • 12:50am JPY BSI Manufacturing Index 12.7 versus -10.3 expected.  The currency fell.
  • 2:00am AUD MI Inflation Expectations 3.5% versus 3.1% expected.  The currency fell.
  • 2:30am AUD Employment Change 121.0K versus 15.2K expected.  The currency fell.
  • 2:30am AUD Unemployment Rate 6.1% versus 6.3% expected.  The currency fell.
  • 2:30am CNY CPI 2.0% versus 2.2% expected.
  • 2:30am CNY PPI -1.2% versus -1.1% expected.
  • 9:00am EUR ECB Monthly Bulletin noted that, “The Governing Council sees the risks surrounding the economic outlook for the euro area on the downside. In particular, the loss in economic momentum may dampen private investment, and heightened geopolitical risks could have a further negative impact on business and consumer confidence. Another downside risk relates to insufficient structural reforms in euro area countries.”  The currency rose.
  • 1:30pm CAD NHPI 0.0% versus 0.2% expected.  The currency fell.
  • 1:30pm USD Weekly Initial Jobless Claims 315K versus 306K expected.  The currency rose.
  • 11:30pm NZD Business NZ Manufacturing Index 56.5 versus last 53.0 expected.  The currency fell.

 Friday, September 12th

  • 3:02am CNY New Loans 703B versus 710B expected.
  • 7:05am JPY BOJ Governor Kuroda said that, “In the near future, many of you will find yourself in a position where you are expected to consider how to respond to various policy challenges. In that case, you will first need to assess the situation as accurately as possible and consider realistic and specific policy responses. As a policy practitioner, it is critical to get used to such a pragmatic approach.”   The currency fell.
  • 10:00am EUR Industrial Production 1.0% versus 0.6% expected.  The currency rose.
  • All Day EUR Eurogroup Meetings: ECB President Mario Draghi indicated that the Eurozone’s recovery should proceed at a modest pace as the measures adopted by the ECB at its September monetary policy meeting support inflation expectations. He also reiterated that, the ECB’s Governing Council is prepared to take additional action ifthe need arises.  The currency rose.
  • 1:30pm USD Core Retail Sales 0.3% versus 0.2% expected.  The currency rose.
  • 1:30pm USD Retail Sales 0.6% versus 0.3% expected.  The currency rose.
  • 1:30pm USD Import Prices -0.9% versus -0.8% expected.  The currency rose.
  • 2:55pm USD Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey 84.6 versus 83.2 expected.  The currency rose.
  • 3:00pm USD Business Inventories 0.4% versus 0.5% expected.  The currency rose.

 Saturday, September 13th

  • 6:30am CNY Industrial Production (8.8% expected)
  • 6:30am CNY Fixed Asset Investment (16.9% expected)
  • All Day EUR ECOFIN Meetings (hawkish = good for currency)

Technical Recap for the Majors This Week

EURUSD:
Forecast: Lower
Actual: Mildly higher from a 1.2934 open to a 1.2955 close.

USDJPY:
Forecast: Higher
Actual: Higher from a 105.13 open to a 107.26 close.

GBPUSD:
Forecast: Mildly Lower
Actual: Mildly higher from a 1.6186 open to a 1.6238 close.

AUDUSD:
Forecast: Mildly Higher
Actual: Lower from a 0.9366 open to a 0.9045 close.

USDCAD:
Forecast: Mildly Higher
Actual: Higher from a 1.0883 open to a 1.1067 close.

NZDUSD:
Forecast: Mildly Lower
Actual: Lower from a 0.8305 open to a 0.8152 close.

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USDCAD bullish extension theme

  • We have remained bullish into mid-month, but had looked for a brief consolidation theme before bullish pressures resurfaced. Wrong!!
  • Better support at 1.0885/75 has held, even ahead of here at 1.0933, to re-energize the previous surge above the 1.1000/05 area.
  • We still see risk as higher to already hit 1.1055 and aims for 1.1080 target, likely Friday
  • Through mid-September, the bias is still higher for 1.1155/70 and maybe even the secular high at 1.1280.

WHAT CHANGES THIS?

  • Below 1.0933 eases bull risks; through 1.0885/75 signals a neutral tone, only shifting negative below 1.0811.

Download our full report with latest screencast & levels here: http://members.marketchartist.com/Daily/USDCAD.pdf

 

4 Hour USDCAD Chart

 

Daily USDCAD Chart

 

 

 

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