NZDUSD positive tone to range theme

  • We have stated in our client reports all week that “we look for a boarder range theme of .8500 and .8695 this week and into Tuesday and midweek between .8550 and .8650” and NZDUSD has been confined to the narrower parameters thus far this week.
  • However, the positive tone after the RBNZ rate decision sees skewed risk above .8650 and for an approach to .8695.
  • WHAT CHANGES THIS?
  • Upside: Through .8695 aims above the .8750 peak for the 2011 secular high at .8840 (with interim levels .8750 and .8800).
  • Downside: Only below .8500 sets a better top, a more bearish shift and targets erosion for .8440 and .8345.

Please see full report with levels and latest audio-visual analysis here: http://members.marketchartist.com/Daily/NZDUSD.pdf

Daily NZDUSD

continue reading »

The 4/23 and 4/24 sessions had two key movers for the AUD/NZD. The first was the AUS inflation data for Q1, which was not low enough to be of concern (CPI growth was 2.9% on the year and 0.6% in Q1). However, trader’s used it to cool off the hot AUD, which translated into a break below a rising trendline in the AUD/NZD, as you can see in the 4H chart. The RBNZ raised the key interest rate as expected from 2.75% to 3.0%, and was hawkish on the prospect of continuing inflationary pressure…

continue reading »

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) was expected to raise the Official Cash Rate (OCR) from 2.75% to 3.00%. This is the 2nd rate hike from the 2.50% OCR that persisted since March, 2011. The RBNZ statement noted inflationary pressure several times, so it might pay to pay extra attention to inflation data now that the bank has put in 2 rate hikes in a row. RBNZ governor Graem Wheeler noted:
“Headline inflation is moderate, but inflationary pressures are increasing and are expected to continue…

continue reading »

anadian retail sales in February rose by 0.5% from January, but still have not fully regained December’s weather-induced losses, according to Statistics Canada data on Wednesday. The value of sales was $41.03 billion, still a shade lower than November’s $41.05 billion. The volume of sales rose 0.1% in February from January but remained a full […]

The post Canadian Retail Sales Rise in February appeared first on MarketPulse.

continue reading »

Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said consumer inflation may exceed the central bank’s projection in the fiscal year that ended in March, voicing confidence the world’s third-largest economy continues to make headway in meeting its price target. Deputy Governor Hiroshi Nakaso added to the optimism, stressing that Japan can withstand the pain from a […]

The post BOJ Governor Says Inflation Might Beat Expectations appeared first on MarketPulse.

continue reading »

The European Central Bank must keep an eye on the euro exchange rate to assess whether it poses a risk to the medium-term inflation outlook, ECB Governing Council member Ardo Hansson said on Wednesday. In recent weeks, the ECB has spoken frequently about the currency and warned that any further strengthening could lead it to […]

The post ECB Member Says Bank Will Keep and Eye on Strong EUR appeared first on MarketPulse.

continue reading »

GBPUSD bullish tone and extension bias

  • A push to a new recovery high last week and a subsequent resilient tone leaves the threat still higher into this week.
  • We still target another new cycle high this week and aim for a longer term level at 1.6877.
  • The risk for late April is now still higher to psychological 1.7000 and the multi-year high from 2009 at 1.7042.
  • WHAT CHANGES THIS?
  • Below 1.6625 eases bull risks; through 1.6550 signals a neutral tone, only shifting negative below 1.6465.

Please see full report with levels and latest audio-visual analysis here: http://members.marketchartist.com/Daily/GBPUSD.pdf

 Monthly GBPUSD

continue reading »

CPI growth in Australia came in at 0.6% for Q1. The previous quarter’s reading was 0.8%, and so was economists’ forecast for Q1. CPI in Q1 from a year earlier grew 2.9%, missing the 3.2% forecast. The lower than expected inflation data might present a challenge for the RBA to raise rates and thus hampered AUD-strength. The 2.9% rate on the year is within the 2%-3% target for the RBA, so this data should not seriously prevent a rate hike, but in the short-term…

continue reading »

EUR/USD has posted gains in Wednesday trading, as the pair has climbed to the mid-1.38 range in the European session. Eurozone and German PMIs beat their estimates, although the French releases fell short of expectations. In economic news, Eurozone and German PMIs beat the forecast, but French PMIs did not keep pace, missing expectations. In the US, today’s major event is New Home Sales. The markets are […]

The post EUR/USD – Gains As Eurozone, German PMIs Point Up appeared first on MarketPulse.

continue reading »