According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), Australia has had a positive trade balance for 10 straight months until the March 2012 release for January’s trade data. It has since deteriorated further in February and in March. The importance of this release is its revelation of shrinking exports after it has been the motor for the Australian economy…

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We highly anticipate the upcoming CPI data from the RBA. The RBA itself has signaled that muted inflation from this data release would open the door for rate cuts in order to help the domestic economy, and as a result, we should see the Australian dollar pressured as those expectations continue to be priced in. We look at 3 AUD crosses – the AUD/USD, AUD/CAD, and GBP/AUD – as 3 pairs to target if the CPI data acts as a catalyst for further AUD weakness.

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