Key Fundamental Forex Events for the Week of July 15th through July 19th

The following table lists the key economic data and other events that came out during the week of July 15th through July 19th, with release times displayed for the GMT time zone.

The list also indicates how much each release deviated from the market consensus forecast upon release, as well as what the affected major currency pair or pairs did after each event or set of events.

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Switzerland is proving its mettle as a safe haven economy with exports and domestic consumption doing well; however traders should remember that one of the reasons for this performance is the switzlerlandsuccessful devaluation of CHF. As currency devaluations go for developed economies few were more spectacular than the raid carried out by the Swiss National Bank in September 2011…

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Over the 7/6 European session, there were a few releases worth noting. 1) Switzerland increases foreign currency reserves from an upwardly revised 305.9B CHF in May, to 365.9B CHF in June. This shows that the SNB has been intervening in the FX market…

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With the Swiss National Bank meeting only once a quarter there seems to always be some chatter and rumors about the possibility that the SNB will raise its EUR/CHF floor from the current level of 1.20. However such scenario in the upcoming release seems unlikely. While some politicians and those in the exports and tourism industries would love to see a weaker CHF, the SNB likely considers its current path a successful one and will resist being pressured into further moves to depreciate the currency.

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Even as the euro has strengthened against the dollar over the last week and a half is unable to carry that advanced to its fight against the Swiss franc. This week we test key support near 1.2060 that if breached would set up a big battle between the market and the SNB. The fact that the Greek debt negotiations have not found resolution continue to not see a resolution in the Greek debt negotiations, the CHF continues to be bid as a safe haven thereby reinforcing a fundamental bias for the Swiss franc against the euro in these conditions.

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