• A grinding rebound effort thus far this week, but whilst below a firm barrier at 1.3545 we see bearish pressures as very much intact into mid-Nov.
• The previous plunge through trend line and 38.2% retrace support from the July-Oct rally shifted the short-term outlook to bearish into this week and likely next.
• Downside risks: Whilst capped by 1.3545 we see the skewed risk back lower to modest support at 1.3360/50 and then through the defended 50% retrace at 1.3295 to the 61.8% retrace level at 1.3165.
• Overshoot risk is the 1.3105 swing low.
• Recovery challenges: Above 1.3545 eases bear risks; through 1.3650 signals a neutral tone, only shifting positive above 1.3750.
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