 We saw the GBP/JPY end last week with a bullish attempt, within a declining channel. This is a counter-trend rally, and a trading approach is to stalk the rally until it has completed the correction. The rally reversed at 137.50 area and is now testing 134.0, previous resistance now tested as support… |
 The GBP/USD broke below a short-term rising channel support, which you can see in the 4H chart. A swing projection in the 4H chart matches the 200% expanded swing projection of a larger scale move. Both targeting below 1.45, near 1.44/1.4380. The stochastic failed to roll up from the oversold region in the daily, and … |
 I will start this week looking at some dollar crosses. The EUR/USD and GBP/USD started bearish within the context of a rising consolidation channel. The declines in both pairs are being tested and may stay narrow until the beginning of the Asian session near 7:00PM EST. The USD/JPY starts this week undecided. But that’s okay, the narrow ranging action paves way for a breakout… |
 The GBP/USD finished its decline to the 1.5070 area, and actually got to as low as 1.05030 to start the US session. The GBP/USD could still rally to 1.53, but the market started the week held below 1.52, so the morning near-term outlook was a decline to… |
 Looking at the GBP/USD in the near-term, we see that the market is in a correction from the previous downswing. So far, some resistance at 50% and test of SMA 50, as well as stochastic crossover in the overbought zone. The market can still continue to rally to 61.8% reracement area 153.00, or even 153.50. |
 Last Friday, I took a look at the Yen-crosses. It was noted that the Euro and Sterling are the weakest against the Japanese currency, and that the commodity currencies had a change to fade yen-strength as they have been strong. The USD/JPY has been weak, BUT… |
 We see that the USD/CHF pair has been in sideways action since the beginning of February. There is a “rounded-top” type dynamic in this consolidation, so there is still a chance the market would have a correction to the 1.05 area… |
 Two weeks ago, the Greenback was the top performer, followed by the Japanese yen. Then, the Japanese yen we the highlight of last week. This week, the rotation comes to the commodity currencies such as the Loonie, Aussie, and Kiwi. Let’s take a look… |
 If the market stays above 1.35, there may be another bullish swing projection on the upside. This may bring the market near 1.38 area. Remember, this is still in the context of congestion, which is in a larger context of decline… |
 The AUD/USD is done with a quick throwback, which only retraced about 38.2%. The quick, instead of 50-61.8% retracement adds to the likelihood of reaching 0.92, and also adds to the probability of a break above… |