 The GBP/USD broke below a short-term rising channel support, which you can see in the 4H chart. A swing projection in the 4H chart matches the 200% expanded swing projection of a larger scale move. Both targeting below 1.45, near 1.44/1.4380. The stochastic failed to roll up from the oversold region in the daily, and … |
 I will start this week looking at some dollar crosses. The EUR/USD and GBP/USD started bearish within the context of a rising consolidation channel. The declines in both pairs are being tested and may stay narrow until the beginning of the Asian session near 7:00PM EST. The USD/JPY starts this week undecided. But that’s okay, the narrow ranging action paves way for a breakout… |
 Looking at the GBP/USD in the near-term, we see that the market is in a correction from the previous downswing. So far, some resistance at 50% and test of SMA 50, as well as stochastic crossover in the overbought zone. The market can still continue to rally to 61.8% reracement area 153.00, or even 153.50. |
 Last Friday, I took a look at the Yen-crosses. It was noted that the Euro and Sterling are the weakest against the Japanese currency, and that the commodity currencies had a change to fade yen-strength as they have been strong. The USD/JPY has been weak, BUT… |
 If the market stays above 1.35, there may be another bullish swing projection on the upside. This may bring the market near 1.38 area. Remember, this is still in the context of congestion, which is in a larger context of decline… |
 The AUD/USD is done with a quick throwback, which only retraced about 38.2%. The quick, instead of 50-61.8% retracement adds to the likelihood of reaching 0.92, and also adds to the probability of a break above… |
 Today, I will take a followup with the EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY and AUD/USD pairs. The greenback is holding firm against the euro and sterling. Agains the yen, it continues to be choppy. The Aussie may continue to gain on the greenback in context of consolidation. |
…The market fails twice to rally above this retracement level near 1.5115, and from this double top action, the market looks ready to continue its decline. The stochastic forms a “M” pattern and suggests bearish continuation… |
 The previous post noted that the USD/JPY is declining towards 87.00, but was in consolidation. A bullish divergence also suggested a correction… |
 …The 1.38/1.3850 area is an important resistance. If that is broken the 1.39 area is also an important resistance. The key is to look for topping action, then observe the decline if one materializes… |