Strong Reactions to the FOMC Statement and Press Conference – USD Rallies, JPY Slides

Fan Yang \ 3:57 PM 06/19/13

FOMC, Bernanke press conference: The FOMC held its Feds Funds rate between 0 to 0.25% as expected. It is maintaining its rate of $85bln/month asset purchase for now, though the FOMC’s economic projection improved. Fed Chariman Bernanke held a press conference starting 2:30PM EST, where he explained the fed decision and answered questions from the media. He reiterated that unemployment rate will have to fall below 7.0% before reducing the pace of asset purchase…

Technical Outlook AUDUSD June 18th

ForexTraders \ 2:46 AM 06/19/13

0 comments

AUDUSD failure at .9650/55 resistance barriers leaves bigger topping picture intact

• An extremely negative Monday pattern has reinforced the expected faltering on Friday and as we have stressed” whilst below barriers at .9650/55 and the key failure peak at .9785, we see downside risk resuming through mid-June”.

• Having last week pushed below the key 2011 low at .9388, to a three year low to complete a long term top, we see risk to the critical 38.2% retrace of the entire 2008-11 rally at .9145 into late June.

• Into this week, we look for .9785 to cap (likely .9650/55) and for a roll back lower, through a .9480/70 prop

• The 8-day RSI has scope to go lower.

WHAT CHANGES THIS?

• Only above .9655 eases bear risk with a switch to neutral above .9805.

Please download audio-visual analysis here: members.marketchartist.com/LS/AUDUSD.pdf

AUD/USD Technicals – 0.96 Key for bulls as short term bears fighting back

Oanda \ 2:11 AM 06/17/13

0 comments

AUD/USD received a new lease of life last week. Despite the early week scare which pushed price way below the 0.938 final support (see weekly chart below), price managed to recover significantly, climbing back up above 0.96 at one point, but ultimately failing to hold onto the level. If one were to do a weekend review of the markets, they will notice that Australia’s economic data released last week were mostly stronger than expected. One can easily put 2 and…

AUD/USD Technicals – Recovery from 0.933 continues with 0.958 holding

Oanda \ 4:59 AM 06/14/13

0 comments

After dipping below the multi-year support of 0.938 (see Weekly Chart below) on Tuesday, price recovered strongly, with the resulting recovery rally almost a mirror image of the decline from 0.968 that took place last Friday (7th June). It is easy to attribute the recovering AUD/USD on recent stronger numbers – Westpac Consumer Confidence +4.7% vs -7.0% previous while Employment Change came in at +1.1K vs an expected -10.0K – but that is with the benefit of hindsight. When the…

Technical Outlook for the AUDUSD on June 13th

ForexTraders \ 3:31 AM 06/13/13

0 comments

MARKET CHARTIST AUDUSD VIEW, 13-June-13

• An unexpected rebound over the past 24 hours to overcome modest resistance at .9470/80 and ease immediate bear risk this week.

• However, whilst below further barriers at .9650/55 and the key failure peak at .9785, we see downside risk resuming through mid-June.

• Having pushed below the key 2011 low at .9388 to a three year low and completed a long term top, we see risk to the critical 38.2% retrace of the entire 2008-11 rally at .9145.

• The 8-day RSI has scope to go lower to challenge the key .9145 level into next week.

WHAT CHANGES THIS?

• Only above .9655 eases bear risk with a switch to neutral above .9785.

Please download audio-visual analysis here: members.marketchartist.com/LS/AUDUSD.pdf

AUD/USD Setting up a Slingshot after Falling on a Dovish RBA Statement

Fan Yang \ 7:35 AM 06/04/13

0 comments

0.97, bottom: AUD/USD looks like it is trying to establish a price bottom after rising above 0.97 during the 6/3 session. However it retreated from the 0.9790 area during the 6/4 session and fell further after a dovish RBA statement to 0.965 before finding support. Slingshot: Note that the throwback, although sharp has stopped at the 200-hour SMA and found support…

AUD/USD Breaks the 2012-Low; Bullish Divergences

Fan Yang \ 8:26 AM 05/29/13

0 comments

Bearish: AUD/USD has been bearish since the 1.0581 high on the year. It has come down and broken the 2012-low of 0.9580 before finding a bit of support at 0.9527. Still the market has lower lows and lower highs, so the bearish trend is intact. But we are seeing an extended bullish divergence with the RSI suggesting some consolidation ahead. There is also a new bullish divergence in the daily chart…

Reaction to Bernanke: USD-strength (EUR/USD, USD/JPY GBP/USD, AUD/USD)

Fan Yang \ 12:23 PM 05/22/13

0 comments

Bernanke: He defended QE, warning against premature tightening. But it looks like the turning point has already been reached. There is no talk of expanding QE measures, but rather a discussion on timing being too early. The market put on further USD strength after the testimony in front of the Joint Economic Committee. A lot of USD-crosses continue their recent trend. Because the timing of QE will depend on key economic data…

AUD/USD Maintains Near-term Bearish Momentum ahead of Bernanke

Fan Yang \ 1:35 PM 05/21/13

0 comments

Consolidation: Last week, the bearish AUD/USD found support just above the 0.97 handle. So far this week, it has been in consolidation, posting some gains that have so far reached 0.9840. It was a flag pattern, but has now turned sideways in the near-term under 0.9840. Momentum: The moving averages show a consolidation with bearish bias…

More Technical Updates »

What are the Experts Saying?