In the 4H EUR/GBP chart, we can see a falling wedge developing in late March after a failure to push above 0.84. After barely cracking 0.82 last week, EUR/GBP rebounded slightly and consolidated between 0.8217 and 0.8246. It is also consolidating just below the falling wedge. Bullish breakout scenario: The current pattern and structure is bearish. But a break above 0.8250 should clear last week’s consolidation and push above the falling wedge resistance. This opens up the 0.83-0.8310 common resistance area…

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EU annual CPI for March came in at 0.5%. This slowed from the 0.7% in February, and missed forecast of 0.6%. It is also the slowest pace of inflation since November 2009, when the annual CPI was 0.6%. Deflationary risk is a factor the ECB has been concerned with, but it is not the dominating factor during the 3/31 European session so far. Month-end and risk-on flows are helping the EUR, and softening USD, and JPY…

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The EUR/GBP has been bullish since coming off a 2014 low of 0.8157. A couple weeks back, it broke above a falling trendline that went back to the July 2013 high of 0.8768. The market has since gotten into a bit of consolidation. This is not surprising as price has made a 38.2% retracement and the stochastic showed a bearish divergence in the overbought area above 80. Price also tagged the 200-day SMA, which acted as resistance last week…

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Read about this trade on my trading blog. I was recently stopped out on a short EURGBP trade I placed — the market literally hit my stop before reversing right away. If anything, though, I think this validated my original analysis as the levels I had put in place were being respected; a bad spike just hit my stop, in my opinion. So, I put on another order to try shorting EURGBP again. The chart below illustrates. This image has been resized. Click this bar to view the full image. The original image is sized 1192×710.

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Learn to trade by following my own personal trading blog. I placed two orders today to go long GBP: one order was to short EURGBP, while the other was to go long GBPUSD.  EURGBP has been in a downtrend, but pulled back to touch resistance and its 50 SMA — and forming a doji candlestick while doing so. I found this as sufficient evidence to warrant speculating on an imminent resumption of the downtrend.  A doji is also forming on GBPUSD, this one at a major support level the market had fallen to in the midst of a pullback in its uptrend. As such, I thought it was a reasonable opportunity to speculate on an imminent resumption of the primary uptrend.  

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Learn to trade by following my own personal trading blog. I placed four trades today — or more correctly, I placed four orders; let’s see how many get filled. Here they are documented below: First is an order to go long GBPCHF: Next up, an order to short EURGBP: From these two trades we can infer that the GBP rally will continue — if these analyses are correct. Third on the list is short AUDCAD: And last but not least, short AUDCHF: In addition to the long GBP and short AUD views that are implied, there is also a contradictory view on CHF; I’m long it against AUD, but short it against GBP. I’m fine with this, though I think it is worth noting and observing. If all these orders get filled — which is a big if — I’ll be risking 1% of my account balance. That is my maximum risk tolerance, so I won’t be putting on any other positions until I can move to breakeven or close out positions if these four get filled.

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Learn to trade by following my own personal trading blog. Over yesterday and today I’ve closed out of all my long Euro positions for a profit and have gone short. I would have preferred to hold on for a just a bit longer, but we were pretty close to my profit targets and I saw too many bearish signs. One setup I really liked and decided to take up was this short setup on EURGBP. I have an order here to short at 8406 with a target of 8096 and a stop at 8476. This gives me a reward/risk of about 5.4.

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