EUR/USD started April with a bullish continuation signal, breakout above a falling correction channel. Downside risk: However, after failing to reach 1.3966, 2014-high, and retreating from 1.3905, EUR/USD remains in consolidation mode in the 4H chart. There is still bullish bias because the pair is bullish in the higher time-frame, in the daily chart, but we might be looking at some near-term downside risk toward 1.37 within this bullish outlook. Will the 1.3780 triangle support hold?

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Volatility came back at the tail end of the extended holiday weekend, where EUR/USD broke below the low-volatility holiday-range, but then found support at 1.3785 and rebounded during the 4/22 session. As the US session gets underway, the market will be looking at EUR/USD in a state of consolidation, with an attempt to break out to the upside and continue a prevailing uptrend. Resistance: The 1H chart shows key resistance at 1.3830. It is this week’s high and if broken opens up…

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EUR/USD slipped to 1.3796, which is the lowest since April 15. Bids at 1.3790 and 1.3780 are on the orderboard. The Australian dollar also took out the earlier highs and crept up to 0.9346. There’s no news behind the moves.

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We are in an extended holiday weekend that started Friday. Normal trading volume might not return until the 4/22 (Tuesday) session. EUR/USD has been quietly ranging between 1.38 and 1.3830 during holiday trading. A breakout from this holiday range might not reflect direction but rather just the market returning to normal non-holiday trading volatility. There is last week’s range between 1.3788 and 1.3863. Before that range we had a upswing from about 1.3673 to 1.3905…

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EUR/USD is tagging a key intra-week pivot at 1.3863. It has just cracked it and barely put in a new high on the week. Resistance, overbought: The 1H chart shows that as we enter the 4/17 US session, EUR/USD is at a previous support/resistance pivot, and 61.8% retracement of the 1.3905-1.3789 decline, which started last Friday. The stochastic oscillator reading in the 1H chart is above 80. Due to the resistance factors and overbought condition in the 1H chart, we can anticipate…

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EUR/USD found support this week at 50% retracement level of the 1.3672 – 1.3905 rally. In the 1H chart, you can see 3 factors of support.
1) 1.3788: 50% retracement of the 1.3672-1.3905 rally.
2) 200-hour simple moving average
3) falling channel resistance that was broken last week.
Bullish Continuation: Rebounding from these support factors suggests continuation of April’s bullish mode for the pair…

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As we begin the 4/15 US session, the EUR/USD is just above 50% retracement of last week’s rally from 1.3672 to 1.3905. It is also hovering above the 200-hour simple moving average. Downside risk: During the 4/15 session, a break below 1.3790 should open up 1.3761, 61.8% retracement. Bullish continuation: A return above 1.3835 clears the session and would be a sign of bullish continuation , which first should challenge the 1.39-1.3905 resistance. At least we should anticipate a rally to “fill the gap” by pushing to 1.3880…

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EUR/USD is retreating after tagging 1.3905 to end last week. As we get started in the 4/14 US session, the pair is testing the 1.3810-1.3820 area, which may provide support. This area includes a previous resistance as well as 38.2% retracement. The 4H stochastic is also falling towards 20, oversold level. If there is some further downside risk in the near-term, look for support around 50% retracement, which is reinforced by the 100 and 50 SMAs in the 4H chart…

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