The euro rebounded against its US counterpart Thursday but failed to hold on to its gains, reaffirming the belief the bears are still in control.

The EUR/USD reached an intraday high of 1.3624 Thursday before ending the day at 1.3602. The EUR/USD is currently trading at 1.3605, up 0.02%. Initial support is likely found at 1.3582 and resistance at 1.3625.

continue reading »

Fundamental Bias: Slightly Bearish Key Takeaways German consumer confidence expected to remain unchanged due partly to Ukraine unrest A headline reading significantly above or below the expected 8.5 could move EUR/USD Key support at 1.3600 and resistance at 1.3645 German consumer confidence is likely to remain stable in June, according to a broad consensus of market analysts awaiting GfK’s monthly consumer confidence report. The Nuremberg-based market research firm will provide a forward-looking snapshot of German consumer confidence Monday. The June reading is expected to be 8.5, unchanged from the last three months, a sign Germans are still nervous about the situation in the Ukraine.

continue reading »

The EUR/USD was not able to find direction last week, but did end the week showing resilience as it held at the upper part of a recent consolidation range and April high at 1.3905. 2014-high: During the 5/6 session, traders pushed EUR/USD above 1.3905, and thus opened up the 1.3966 high. The market might get tentative ahead of Thursday’s ECB meeting especially with the 4H and daily stochastic in overbought levels above 80..Bullish scenario: If the market falls back…

continue reading »

EUR/USD for Tuesday, May 6, 2014 The last week or so has seen the Euro do little except trade within the current trading range between 1.38 and 1.39 as it continues to place pressure on the resistance at 1.39. The 1.38 level over the last few weeks has reinforced itself as one of significance after […]

continue reading »

After facing a week of key fundamental risks USD-direction is unclear. Friday’s price action had 2-parts: 1) reaction to NFP (USD-positive), and 2) reaction to (USD-negative). 1) The NFP and jobs data was relatively positive, though blemished by very poor labor force participation rate data. 2) US Factory Orders for March came in at 1.1%. Forecasts called for a 1.5% reading for March.. The previous reading was revised down from 1.6% to 1.5%. This is still a positive gain, but fails to show any improving trend in this manufacturing data.

continue reading »

Let’s face it, EUR/USD did not show us any strong directional clues this week, only expanding last week’s consolidation in both directions. NFP Reaction, Consolidation: After the most recent high at 1.3888, traders put on USD-strength after the US jobs data, which were generally positive but blemished by a decline in the labor participation rate. The 4H chart shows the EUR/USD shifting back from a bullish attempt to a consolidation mode. With today’s price action bearish, the focus will be on the 1.3767-1.3785 consolidation support area…

continue reading »

US Event risks: Traders have been weathering some key data this week especially from the US. The latest was the US ISM Manufacturing PMI for April, which beat forecast so traders have some fuel for USD-strength, but it is not likely a big mover outside of the intra-session time-frame because of tomorrow’s key US jobs data. Consolidation w/bullish bias: In the 4H EUR/USD chart, you can see the pair widening a consolidation range to 1.3767-1.3880.

continue reading »