EUR/USD – Wave Count and Zig Zag Projection

• 4H: Although the market was bearish for most of the first 2 sessions. The third session this week started pushing up the Euro in the Asian session. This accelerated in the European session.
• This is not surprise ahead of the Non-Farm payroll. We expect some lower volatility but after the current swing.
• Yesterday I suggested a range between 1.26 and 1.28, but the market is clearly not in a flat right now. It appears to me that it is developing a “zig zag” correction pattern.
• The current rally is a strong one, so it should be a 3rd wave of C.
• Looking from the decline since 1.3335 area. the market appears to have completed an impulse wave, and as mentioned, is in a corrective zig zag.
• The current rally can be expected to reach 1.2930/1.2960 area. The 1.2930 is 161.8% expansion of wave A, which is a conventional projection for wave C. The 1.2960 area is 50% retracement of the downswing and is a logical place for the market to hang around ahead of the Non-Farm Payroll.
• Referring to yesterday’s update “Will Volatility Tighten Ahead of Non-Farm Payroll“, yes I believe it will when the market reaches above 1.29. You already see the market expanding the volatility as it tags the upper Bollinger Band.
• After NFP, a break above 1.2960 should suggest a rally towards 1.33 area.

Fan Yang
Currency Analyst
Commodity Trading Advisor

Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only and do not constitute an investment advice. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. FXTimes will not accept liability for any loss of profit or damage which may arise directly, indirectly or consequently from use of or reliance on the trading set-ups or any accompanying chart analyses.

All screenshots are made from VT Trader 2.0 and are of actual market data at the time of the screenshot.

EUR/USD – Will Volatility Tighten Ahead of NFP?

• 1H: This is a follow up to this mornings EUR/USD update, where I was stalking the correction rally.
• So far the market has held the pair below 1.2740, an important area as I mentioned.It has become a pivot for a decline in the US session.
• The decline now tests the 1.2670 level, which is 61.8% retracement of the “corrective rally”. If the market can sustain a break below, the bearish scenario can continue. The RSI should also break below 40 in this case. The RSI in the 4H chart should also break below 40.
• However, knowing that there is event risk for the greenback on Friday in the form of the non-farm payroll, volatility is likely to decline once the market finds a pre-release equilibrium.
• This is not always the case, as the market can become volatile in anticipation of the release. The fact is that it is already becoming more volatile during this 2nd trading session of the week.
• If the 1H ATR starts to decline throughout the Asian and then European session, the market is likely winding down activity before the release.
• Therefore, if the market breaks 1.2740 or below 1.2670, make sure it is with force ( more than 1 ATR, which is 25 in the 1H chart at 4:00PM ET).
• Otherwise, the market may be simply consolidating in a range roughly below 1.28 and above 1.26.

Fan Yang
Currency Analyst
Commodity Trading Advisor

Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only and do not constitute an investment advice. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. FXTimes will not accept liability for any loss of profit or damage which may arise directly, indirectly or consequently from use of or reliance on the trading set-ups or any accompanying chart analyses.

All screenshots are made from VT Trader 2.0 and are of actual market data at the time of the screenshot.

EUR/USD – Sharp Correction Challenges the Bearish Outlook

• 1H: The EUR/USD started the week bearish and slid above 100 pips before sharply rallying in the European session. Yesterday’s video update and EUR/USD update anticipated a decline towards the 1.2450 area.
• The bullish swing brought the pairnear 1.2740/50, an important area. The break above 61.8% retracement is already a bad sign for the bearish scenario.
• This still could be a pullback, although the relative sharpness of the rally to the decline suggests otherwise.
• The RSI may offer some clue as well. Price level and RSI level is at a point that is challenging the bearish outlook, and there is a “battle” brewing here between bulls and bears.
• I am very interested to see what happens in the US session today. I believe it is too uncertain to determine until at least after it. I will comment at the end of the session.

Fan Yang
Currency Analyst
Commodity Trading Advisor

Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only and do not constitute an investment advice. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. FXTimes will not accept liability for any loss of profit or damage which may arise directly, indirectly or consequently from use of or reliance on the trading set-ups or any accompanying chart analyses.

All screenshots are made from VT Trader 2.0 and are of actual market data at the time of the screenshot.

EUR/USD – Negative Reversal Signals Bearish Swing

• 4H: The EUR/USD completed a negative reversal signal during the European session, ahead of the US session. The slow rally last week from near 1.26 to 1.28 stopped at resistance of 61.8% retracement.
• The market has been declining since starting this week and looks to continue towards 1.2440. This is a swing projection.
• The 15-min, not shown here confirmed as the RSI broke below 40. The price action there also broke below the 50 and 200 Simple Moving Averages.
• The market should not go below the open on 6/21 1.2447. The high that day was 1.2466.
• The idea is that if the market closes below these levels, the long-intermediate term bullish outlook based on a specific wave count is invalid.
• The short-term look is a decline towards 1.2440. However the intermediate term look warrants us to look for bottoming and possibly consider the bullish scenario if a rally springs from this 1.2440/1.2450 area.

• Day: The daily chart shows the EUR/USD in a short-intermediate term decline resting above the cluster of 61.8% and 50% retracement levels near 1.26.
• If today’s candle were to close before the US session, it is an engulfing bearish candle. However we still have an entire session to go.
• The RSI is also resting above 40, so there is not bearish momentum confirmation yet, although it is close to one.
• If the 1.26 level breaks, the market may continue towards 1.2450 area which is a cluster of 61.8% and 78.6% retracement levels. As mentioned before, look for bottoming here. However if it breaks, consider the bearish continuation in the intermediate term and possibility of reaching to 1.22, and 1.19.

Fan Yang
Currency Analyst
Commodity Trading Advisor

Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only and do not constitute an investment advice. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. FXTimes will not accept liability for any loss of profit or damage which may arise directly, indirectly or consequently from use of or reliance on the trading set-ups or any accompanying chart analyses.

All screenshots are made from VT Trader 2.0 and are of actual market data at the time of the screenshot.

EUR/USD Breaks Below Range and Confirms Bearish Attempt

• 1H: After ranging to start the week, the EUR/USD is starting to move during the of the US session. By the end of the session, the market had 4 hours of slow pullback, before a relatively stronger bearish candle followed. Now, when this current candle closes (5:00PM ET), we may have a signal in continuing the decline.
• A swing projection points to 1.2560.
• The RSI has a weak negative reversal signal as well.
• Also, the moving averages have a bearish orientation (200-period > 50-period). Also the gap is widening suggesting acceleration after some consolidation.

Fan Yang
Currency Analyst
Commodity Trading Advisor

Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only and do not constitute an investment advice. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. FXTimes will not accept liability for any loss of profit or damage which may arise directly, indirectly or consequently from use of or reliance on the trading set-ups or any accompanying chart analyses.

All screenshots are made from VT Trader 2.0 and are of actual market data at the time of the screenshot.

EUR/USD – Assessing Wave Count

• 4H: EUR/USD was in consolidation, possible a wave 4 in the wave a until the market rejected a rally above 1.29. The decline is likely wave 5 of a so a b wave can be expected to follow. That is my preferred count, which would be followed by a wave c. The RSI during this time should mainly stay below 60.

• Day: There is still a bullish count that puts the current decline as wave 4, which should not come down below 1.25.
• However, if this count is incorrect, and we already have a completed wave I, and we are already in wave II, this decline can extend to 1.22.

Fan Yang
Currency Analyst
Commodity Trading Advisor

Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only and do not constitute an investment advice. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. FXTimes will not accept liability for any loss of profit or damage which may arise directly, indirectly or consequently from use of or reliance on the trading set-ups or any accompanying chart analyses.

All screenshots are made from VT Trader 2.0 and are of actual market data at the time of the screenshot.

EUR/USD Confirming Further Rally

• 4H: The EUR/USD pair is continuing the anticipated correction rally noted in yesterday’s EUR/USD technical update, and video update. The market continues to rally from the 1.2750 after a dip in the Asian session. The 1.29 area is still not broken, but the throwback that rested channel resistance as support suggests continuation.
• The rally can be projected from the previous swing, bringing the target to the 1.30 area, just below the 50% fibonacci retracement level.
• This is still considered a correction rally, and not a real reversal since the momentum is still under 60, after breaking below 30.
• Therefore, the near-term projection is 1.30, and if the market tops off, there is a chance for further decline.
• However, the daily offers a different perspective.

• Daily: The daily shows a possible count, where we may be finished with wave 4. If we are starting wave 5 already, we can use wave 1 as a projection. That would bring wave 5 to the 1.3340 area, the previous high.
• Another scenario is that wave 4 is not done, and may continue after resistance at 1.30.
• In both scenarios, it is likely that the market will climb to 1.30 first.
• The GBP/USD chart is likely to be in wave 4. This brings us questions regarding EUR/USD as well.
• Now look back at 4H chart in the EUR/USD. Is the projected rally part of wave 4? If so the impulse wave down is not complete?
• I will keep stalking.

Fan Yang
Currency Analyst
Commodity Trading Advisor

Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only and do not constitute an investment advice. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. FXTimes will not accept liability for any loss of profit or damage which may arise directly, indirectly or consequently from use of or reliance on the trading set-ups or any accompanying chart analyses.

All screenshots are made from VT Trader 2.0 and are of actual market data at the time of the screenshot.

EUR/USD – Stalking Correction

• 1H: Yesterday’s EUR/USD update noted support at 1.2750. However the market was still declining in a channel. Today, the market broke out of that channel, and may be in for a correction rally. The near-term target is 1.2940, a swing projection that would complete a 3-wave rally. That could be an area of resistance. However, more significant resistance may lie further ahead closer to the 1.30 area. The 38.2% and 50% zone, and SMA 200 reside there.
• The RSI is rallying above 60, so momentum is showing readiness for at least a correction rally, after a bullish divergence.
• Another confirmation is the crossover of the SMA 50, and a test as support.
• The rally is materializing, and there should be resistance. The market’s reaction after testing resistance is going to give us clues to the intermediate term direction.

Fan Yang
Currency Analyst
Commodity Trading Advisor

Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only and do not constitute an investment advice. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. FXTimes will not accept liability for any loss of profit or damage which may arise directly, indirectly or consequently from use of or reliance on the trading set-ups or any accompanying chart analyses.

All screenshots are made from VT Trader 2.0 and are of actual market data at the time of the screenshot.

EUR/USD – 1.2750 Providing Support

• 4H: In last Friday’s weekly update, the EUR/USD was projected to find some support at the 1.2750 area. A break below that suggests further decline towards 1.2450.
• There has not been a reversal from this level, but the EUR/USD is stalling  its rapid decline of last week just above the 1.2750 area.
• In the 4H chart, you can a bullish divergence. However, there could also be a negative reversal forming. This suggests that although the bearish momentum is slowing, there is no confirmed bullish momentum, so further exhaustion can follow.
• In any case, the above chart shows a bullish scenario if the market were to rally. It appears to have developed 3 downswings, so that means an impulse wave down to be followed by corrective waves up.
• Corrective waves can be projected to the 50% retracement or 1.3020 area. A break above 1.31 should bring back the bullish outlook, or at least, ranging outlook for the intermediate term.
• The 1H chart, not shown here is about to give a bullish signal, if the RSI reading can rise above 70.

• Daily: The 1.2750 area is providing support, and today’s price action may be strong enough to signal a short-term rally. If this short-term rally breaks above 1.31, it may signal further short-term rally.
• At the moment, there may be a positive reversal developing. If so, the suggested projection is the previous high at the 1.3345 area. This would satisfy a truncated fifth wave, although the terminal wave can extend further towards 1.35.
• If these bullish scenarios become unlikely as the week progresses, the market must be sustaining the USD recovery, and further decline in the EUR/USD can lead the pair to seeing the 1.25 area.
• If the 1.2450 breaks, the bottom is open for further decline.

Fan Yang
Currency Analyst
Commodity Trading Advisor

Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only and do not constitute an investment advice. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. FXTimes will not accept liability for any loss of profit or damage which may arise directly, indirectly or consequently from use of or reliance on the trading set-ups or any accompanying chart analyses.

All screenshots are made from VT Trader 2.0 and are of actual market data at the time of the screenshot.

EUR/USD – Post FOMC Reaction is a Bearish Signal

• 1H: The EUR/USD was declining yesterday ahead of the FOMC statement, and I was prepared to watch for the reaction to decide whether the greenback recovery is sustainable.
• After looking at the 1H chart for a bit after the announcement, it became apparent that the EUR/USD is bearish.
• I mentioned in yesterday’s EUR/USD post that if a EUR/USD rally occurs after the announcement, but fails to break above 1.32, then the market should be able to sustain a decline towards 1.2750, then 1.25 if that is broken.
• Following a possible count, I have the market declining in an impulse wave since 1.3340. The reaction around the FOMC statement was a rally, and fit a corrective wave guideline of rallying back to 1.32 (middle of wave iii).
• That completed wave 1 and 2, and we are in wave 3. Wave 3 with 161.8% of wave 1 would be projected to 1.2860 area. This is a logical area for support with a cluster of finacci levels, but we may still have another terminal wave lower after a pause or correction rally.
• The technicals area lined up and the fundamental event risks of NFP and FOMC announcements are past, so the current decline may continue to be sharp.
• Below is the daily chart. Showing that moves in the current session is accelerating downwards, engulfing the previous week’s rally in one fell swoop.

Fan Yang
Currency Analyst
Commodity Trading Advisor

Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only and do not constitute an investment advice. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. FXTimes will not accept liability for any loss of profit or damage which may arise directly, indirectly or consequently from use of or reliance on the trading set-ups or any accompanying chart analyses.

All screenshots are made from VT Trader 2.0 and are of actual market data at the time of the screenshot.