If you’re interested in learning more about this order and many others, check out my personal trading blog. GBPUSD has another hammer forming off support today, and so I’ve re-calibrated my unfilled order accordingly. Whereas I had initially planned to go long at 6703, I moved the entry order up 30 pips to 6733, and moved my stop up to 6673. My target profit remains at 6985. I’m risking 60 pips to gain 252, which gives me a reward/risk of 4.2.

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If you’d like to learn more about this trade and many others, check out my personal trading blog! GBPUSD is in the midst of an uptrend, but has pulled back to a major trendline where it is forming a doji candlestick pattern. We also find a previously established horizontal support level and the 50 SMA in the close vicinity. As such, I think now is a good time to enter, as this might be a level bulls will step in to defend. I’ve set my entry to 6685 with my stop loss at 6625 and my target profit at 6985. I’m risking 60 pips to gain 300, so this setup offers q 5:1 reward/risk ratio.

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GBP/USD retreated further to start the week, but found support just above 1.6850 during the 5/5 US session.
Resistance:
The 1H chart shows a market that has been bullish, but found resistance at 1.6913 last week. This is the 2014-high.
This week, the first global session high is at 1.6882. This will be a key resistance in the near-term.
Above the 2014-high, the 1.70-1.7040 area contains key multi-year highs…

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After facing a week of key fundamental risks USD-direction is unclear. Friday’s price action had 2-parts: 1) reaction to NFP (USD-positive), and 2) reaction to (USD-negative). 1) The NFP and jobs data was relatively positive, though blemished by very poor labor force participation rate data. 2) US Factory Orders for March came in at 1.1%. Forecasts called for a 1.5% reading for March.. The previous reading was revised down from 1.6% to 1.5%. This is still a positive gain, but fails to show any improving trend in this manufacturing data.

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GBPUSD sideways digestion likely to resolve higher through month-end

  • A neutral, sideways theme through last week points to further sideways digestion activity early this week, maybe through month-end.
  • However, the mid-April push to a new recovery high and the still resilient tone leaves the skewed threat skewed higher through this week’s month-end and for early May.
  • We still target another new cycle high this week to aim for a longer term level at 1.6877.
  • The risk into May is still higher to psychological 1.7000 and the multi-year high from 2009 at 1.7042.

WHAT CHANGES THIS?

  • Below 1.6625 eases bull risks; through 1.6550 signals a neutral tone, only shifting negative below 1.6465.

Please see full report with levels and latest audio-visual analysis here: http://members.marketchartist.com/Daily/GBPUSD.pdf

 Monthly GBPUSD

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UK Retail sales in March rose 1.0% on the month. This beat forecasts of a -0.4% reading, though it was lower than the 1.3% reading for February (this was revised down from 1.7%). The month-over-month readings have been fluctuating. However, the year-over-year readings have been positive every month for almost a year now, and the last 4 month’s readings have been stronger, a good sign for the economic recover so far in Q1 of 2014. Scenarios: A bullish market provide support in the 1.6790-1.68 area to challenge the 2014-high. A bearish or neutral market however should…

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Cable ($GBPUSD) bull theme re-energizing

  • We stated in our last report to clients on Wednesday that “we look for the 1.6625 level to hold this week to provide a platform for a push back higher, given the early April rally up through 1.6785 set a more bullish tone”.
  • A more robust tone through midweek for a prod back above 1.6800 and overnight a push to a new recovery high through 1.6820/25.
  • This now leaves the threat still higher to target a longer term level at 1.6877, potentially today and certainly into next week.
  • The risk for late April is now still higher to psychological 1.7000 and the multi-year high from 2009 at 1.7042.
  • WHAT CHANGES THIS?
  • Below 1.6625 eases bull risks; through 1.6550 signals a neutral tone, only shifting negative below 1.6465.

Please see full report with levels and latest audio-visual analysis here: http://members.marketchartist.com/Daily/GBPUSD.pdf

 Monthly GBPUSD

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The unemployment rate in the UK for the Dec 2013-February 2014 months was 6.9%, down from the 7.2% for the previous 3 months. This beat economists’ forecasts which was around 7.2% according to forexfactory.com. The 6.9% jobless rate is the lowest in exactly 5 years, since 6.7% was reported in April of 2009 for the Dec. 2008-Jan. 2009 period. The positive surprise for the UK economy sent the GBP soaring, though it was already pivoting towards a bullish continuation in the GBP/USD and GBP/JPY pairs…

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The key event risk for GBP today was the annual CPI for March, which came in at 1.6% as expected, slightly lower than the 1.7% in February. This is the lowest reading in more than 4 years as you can see from the chart below. The BoE is projected to increase its benchmark interest rate in 2015. However, lingering deflationary risk can delay this projection, which would be a GBP-negative factor. Even with this GBP-negative prospect, cable was able to find support after an initial negative reaction to the data…

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