Anytime we get above forecast and above 200K employment change and decline in unemployment, we get welcoming sign for the US economy. Risk appetite usually leads to pressure for the USD. Indeed we saw that against the commodity currencies like USD/CAD, AUD/USD and NZD/USD where dollar weakness was apparent…However, we have a different reaction in EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, and USD/JPY…
The GBP/USD fell in the 1/31 US session and then in the Asian session in an ABC manner. However the 1H chart shows that the decline was held above the 100 hour simple moving average as well as respect the rising trendline. RSI held above 40 reflecting maintenance of bullish momentum especially when it was brought back above 60…
The GBP/USD respected the 1.5660 even though it cracked it at first. The RSI reading in the 1H chart also came back above 60, after failing to sustain a break below 40. The bullish bias and momentum was held, and the market rallied above the range high at about 1.5737, and even cracked the 1.5770 resistance pivot, which is seen more clearly in the daily chart…
The GBP/USD failed to sustain a double top in the 1H chart when it respected the 1.5660 pivot last Friday (although initially cracking it). The failure to close below 1.5660 was followed by a failed attempt to sustain a break above the high at 1.5733. Instead as you look at the 4H chart, the market looks like it is again attempting to form a double top…
The GBP/USD has been resilient, but the bull run since 1/27 Asian-European session could not clear the 1/26 high at 1.5733. After the US stock market opened at 9:30 AM EST, the GBP/USD started to turn around, and in the following hour candle is falling back toward the previous session’s lows. The strong price action suggests the market could be attempting a double top, with the base at 1.5660…
The daily GBP/USD chart shows a market that is in the 9th straight bullish trading session, the current one breaking above a declining trendline going back to August 2011. The next resistance is seen at 1.5770, highs established Nov. and Dec., 2011. In the short-term however, the market seems to be respecting overbought conditions so let’s take a look at the 1H chart to monitor this “throwback”…
The 4H chart shows some bullish signs for the GBP/USD. Since last week, the market has been rallying in an upward channel, anchoring above a larger channel seen in the 4H and daily chart. This has pushed the RSI above 70 to establish at least short-term bullish momentum. Price action pushed above 200 4H Simple Moving Average as well during this breakout, and price action is confirming the bullish intent as it pushes above 1.56 in the 1/24 US trading session.
After breaking above 1.54, the GBP/USD has continued higher without much of a throwback. The 4H chart shows that it has accelerated and is “throwing over” a rising channel. This strong push to the upside is met with the 200 4H simple moving average, and approaching a larger declining channel resistance. A break of 1.5550 should open up higher resistance pivots…
The broke below 1.53, and even the 1.5270 low, reaching 1.5232 before bouncing. In fact, looking at the 4H candlesticks, we can say that the market respected 1.5270 despite cracking it before there was only one tail that crossed it and it was swiftly rejected. The rebound first established a resistance pivot at 1.5405, but has broken that in the 1/18 US session…
he GBP/USD has broke below 1.53 in the 1/12 session, but found support at 1.5278 (there is still one last pivot at 1.5270 to break below the bottom opens up). Since finding support, the market rallied in an ABC correction where C and A are almost the same lengths (C is a tad longer). This ended up being rejected at a declining trendline seen better at the 4H chart below, respecting the 50-61.8% retracement area…
RT @MarvellousR8kie @alaidi Thank you very much for the valuable insights. Great seminar. Thks for coming ! #forex
A MUST For Anyone who Trades FX! Free e-book from BK -Don't Trade Like Tony Montana FX http://t.co/WTBAVCeZ .03
$GBPUSD 240-minute swing entry update video walk-thru http://t.co/Gd2ELB55 #forex $$ $GBPUSD Follows-Through as Greenback Slides Towards Psych Level http://t.co/wVNJGzNH #forex $$ Sandy kicking off the seminar, Ill take over at Noon http://t.co/xrZdNmNC #forex $SPX Pretty much replicated $EURUSD shorts on Thurs nite as on Tue; results were the same, peaks at 1.32 back to hit 13080s targets #forex
Thank you kindly! Have a great weekend. @SE1_Trading @LeeGrins @aussietorres @knmtechnology @esanchez81 (cont) http://t.co/mwArOhWy
Need to launch changes on DailyFX so US traders can watch videos. May take a few days. Meantime US viewers can go here: http://t.co/z54gnUQY Weekend Video (now available to US viewers): AUDUSD and Dow Clear Resistance Post NFPs, EURUSD Anchored http://t.co/eDfHlafs And, there were no fireworks in US crude positioning this past week. But then again, oil held congestion http://t.co/XOKxCq4l We had a notable jump in the net long interest in gold this past week. Feeding into the metal's upswing. http://t.co/9Q5FNffe We've noted the divergence between S&P 500 price and volume. Add to that net speculative positioning. http://t.co/PHLpdOMi We talk about the short-cover potential in EURUSD, but what about the unwinding of this big $AUDUSD long buildup. http://t.co/uHep6hbe In the meantime, here is the $EURUSD versus the net speculative Euro interest. A lot more room for covering here.. http://t.co/d7P0JHsa
weekly http://t.co/FjE1lFRL i WILL be online sunday night during the super bowl after I smoke my ribs on the grill #forex Yet another Friday where $EURUSD is rallying into the close on spec that Greek deal will be done. The US Dollar Index fell far behind this recent build up in net speculative positioning in dollars. http://t.co/vMcNiXT7 Here's the Dow Jones Industrial Average and its respective volume lull as well. http://t.co/e2X4CbFK Too much to expect a multi-month high close on the $S&P 500 to garner greater turnover. http://t.co/vnF8MqmY
Co-chairs of Greek Creditors Committee flying into Athens this w/e - either tough decisions need to be made or a deal is ready to be closed Best performing currency pair today is CADJPY +1.11%, Worst performing is EUR/CAD -0.60% RT @kathylienfx: @Fxflow Congrats on cracking above 8k// thanks K Flow Rules! :) crosses http://t.co/sTJIEdld better opportunities here (still) than in usd imo Awesome Timetable on Greece courtesy of WSJ. Print it out or save the link http://t.co/RnUs2EYX ...great quote from Sebastien Galy at Soc Gen in that article, “The SNB’s hand is being forced and it will likely be fairly brutal.” According to a good FT article on SNB political pressure for solid intervention, the options market is pricing in a 30% chance of 1.20 break EUR net short positions down 8 percent - confirming that shorts were "squeezed" over the past week That's a hearty drop in net dollar long interest from the COT figures. Good indicator for establishing a time frame for dollar's tumble.
This is the stand out figure IMO RT @djfxtrader: Net Yen Long Position $9.3 Billion Increases 30%,according to analysis of CFTC data #forex Here's the risk-trend alternative to the cable channel: $AUDUSD blowing through the potential triple top at 1.0750 http://t.co/q4EgQK8n
#FF The young ones in FX @Hew_Dat @stephensimonis @Lawrence_Fayman @josephrichman @Rebelgt09 @jaredboydfx You can't use rate expectations for the BoE, so here is $GBPUSD versus the UK-US 10yr yield differential. http://t.co/0pq2FBfE We're talking the spread of a crisis state from Greece to Portugal, but Portuguese CDS have pulled back recently. http://t.co/KQ85ZFYl Fed ZIRP 'less' ZIRPy -time for ECB/BoE/BOJ/SNB to play catchup (mkt weighing adj in rate diffs w/risk app)..balance sheets ready to implode
@JamieSaettele thanks buddy!..yep 161.8% projection of wave 3 vs 1 - kiddie stuff :-) Can u believe I will ACTUALLY be watching the Superbowl Sun? Usually I'm at a rest bc its the BEST day of the yr to get those had reserv!
Do now that we're all on LinkedIn, what happens? Do we all get raises? Or do we all hire each other? An hour an change left for the official NY trading session. Looks like we will hold onto these breaks for next week. You can definitely tell those officials that are irked by the 2014 FOMC hold call. Bullard says it was wrong to link it to a specific time. Our clients at Aspen have 1.0820 limits to take profits in AUDUSD to go flat for +225 pip trade. Feds Bullard says Fed may have to raise rates before 2014 and strong data weakens case for QE. He is a non voter on FOMC
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