USD/CAD – Will 1.05 Hold?

• Day and 4H: The USD/CAD was not able to break above channel resistance, and is attempting to top off. The 1.05 is the base for the possible double top developing.
• The 4H chart shows the reading struggling to go below 40. A break below 40 can invalidate the bullish signal of the RSI breaking above 70 on August 24.
• You can read more about the downswing projection in yesterday’s USD/CAD update. I will now look at the lower time-frames to stalking the attempt to break 1.05.

• 1H: The 1H chart shows a bullish divergence, and also some bottoming action at 1.05 suggesting a rally.
• If there is a rally, we can expect resistance at 1.0550/1.0560 area. This is 38.2% retracement of the downswing and also 150% expansion of the previous upswing.
• However, this could be a corrective wave developing and should have one more upswing, which may bring the pair closer to 1.06.
• The main thing is to watch to see if the RSI can remain below 60. In fact, if the price level tops off before breaking the previous high at 1.0545, there is a negative reversal. However I suspect the correction to the downswing from 1.0670 to 1.05 is not over.
• If the market can sustain a break above 1.0550, it may be heading back to 1.0670.
• As we near Non-Farm payroll event risk on Friday, I suspect the market will not break below 1.05 with force, so there may be some “scalping” approaches treating this as support, and target near 1.0580 (50% retracement) or 1.06 (61.8% retracement).
• If there is a break, I would anticipate a pullback before the NFP, then I would wait to see the reaction after. If it becomes volatile, I will wait for it to settle.
• If the market instead confirms a break below 1.05, it is projected to 1.03260 area (61.8% retracement in the day chart).

Fan Yang
Currency Analyst
Commodity Trading Advisor

Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only and do not constitute an investment advice. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. FXTimes will not accept liability for any loss of profit or damage which may arise directly, indirectly or consequently from use of or reliance on the trading set-ups or any accompanying chart analyses.

All screenshots are made from VT Trader 2.0 and are of actual market data at the time of the screenshot.

USD/CAD Hits Channel Resistance

• Day: The USD/CAD is in a range roughly between 1.0150 and 1.07. To be more specific, there is historic resistance at 1.0670.
• After 2 tests, today’s price action so far heading into the US session, is a reversal candle. If the candle is equal or larger than the previous up-candle, it may signal a reversal.
• As always between this range, the 1.04 area may provide some initial support for the decline. Perhaps it can extend to 1.0325 (61.8% rertracement).

• 4H: A slightly closer look shows the USD/CAD developing a double top. Remember though you should not define it as a double top until the base is broken, but anticipation is good for preparation.
• Here we can see a breakout projection that points to 1.0320 the area, which as we saw in the daily, is the 61.8% retracement level.
• There are support factors, but they are not as significant in a ranging market. The USD/CAD has been ranging for all of 2010.
• The fact that non-farm payroll is coming up actually helps the case that the market is looking to return to the middle of the range, and in doing so may trend in the near-term pass the equilibrium of 50%, and reach 61.8%.

Fan Yang
Currency Analyst
Commodity Trading Advisor

Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only and do not constitute an investment advice. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. FXTimes will not accept liability for any loss of profit or damage which may arise directly, indirectly or consequently from use of or reliance on the trading set-ups or any accompanying chart analyses.

All screenshots are made from VT Trader 2.0 and are of actual market data at the time of the screenshot.

USD/CAD Stalking Current Rally Towards 1.06/1.0650

• Daily: The daily chart shows a scenario similar to that shown on Friday’s Weekly Technical Update. The opening session is stalling the rally projected towards 1.0630 area. The RSI is still under 60, but can break above in the next couple of sessions if they are bullish. Let’s take a look at the 1H chart to see if we have confirmation or price action suggesting otherwise.

• 1H: The 1H chart shows the market in a channel so far. Basically, it is consolidating after rallying from 1.0250 in the previous trading session. The resistance at 1.05 has brought the pair down slowly, compared to the sharp swing rallies.
• The MA crossed up for a bullish signal, and momentum can confirm if the RSI stays above 40.
• A break above 1.05 also spells a rally towards the 1.06/1.0650 area.
• Not shown here, but the 1.0350 area is the 61.8% retracement area and if the market breaks below that, the current bullish scenario is invalid.

Fan Yang
Currency Analyst
Commodity Trading Advisor

Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only and do not constitute an investment advice. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. FXTimes will not accept liability for any loss of profit or damage which may arise directly, indirectly or consequently from use of or reliance on the trading set-ups or any accompanying chart analyses.

All screenshots are made from VT Trader 2.0 and are of actual market data at the time of the screenshot.

USD/CAD in a Wedge After Rallying from Support

• 1H: The USD/CAD rallied sharply after declining to almost 1.01. I mentioned there was support just below 1.02.
• Initially, the RSI was showing a bearish signal. However, after Friday’s rally that became invalid and there is actually a bullish signal now.
• The market is currently in a wedge. It is consolidating just above the 200-period simple moving average.

• Daily: The market has been behaving the way anticipated after breaking the triangle pattern. The 1.02/1.01 area proved to be support as it has persistently this year.
• Friday’s price action is very suggestive of a reversal. The RSI is not telling us much, which mostly means that there is no trend.
• In this ranging environment with very short-term bullish bias, the first possible target is the 1.04 area. This may give some resistance as the 61.8% retracement level. The 50 and 200-period simple averages both reside near that level.

Fan Yang
Currency Analyst
Commodity Trading Advisor

Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only and do not constitute an investment advice. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. FXTimes will not accept liability for any loss of profit or damage which may arise directly, indirectly or consequently from use of or reliance on the trading set-ups or any accompanying chart analyses.

All screenshots are made from VT Trader 2.0 and are of actual market data at the time of the screenshot.

USD/CAD Eyes 1.02 if Support Breaks

• Daily and 1H: In an update last week on the USD/CAD, I mentioned that the currency pair was ready to break below the congestion pattern, after completing 5 waves.
• We can still have waves 6 and 7 if the support holds. However, if the support fails, the near-term target is just below 1.02, then the parity level.
• The support in the 1H chart has already broken, and the RSI is attempting to break below 40. There is also a moving average crossover.
• These may already be signs that the market is heading towards the near-term target below 1.02.

Fan Yang
Currency Analyst
Commodity Trading Advisor

Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only and do not constitute an investment advice. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. FXTimes will not accept liability for any loss of profit or damage which may arise directly, indirectly or consequently from use of or reliance on the trading set-ups or any accompanying chart analyses.

All screenshots are made from VT Trader 2.0 and are of actual market data at the time of the screenshot.

USD/CAD: Triangle Pattern About to Break

• Daily: The USD/CAD has  been continuing sideways action, mainly between 1.08 and 1.0. In the last couple of months, the market started to develop a triangle congestion pattern. This shows the market at equilibrium in the middle of the range near 1.05/1.04.
• An Elliott Wave Guide is that these congestion patterns usually last 5 or 7 swings. Now assuming the rally into 1.08 in May was the first, a, we may have completed the 5th, e wave.
• If there is an extension, the triangle may continue further towards the apex, but we already see 2/3rds of the triangle complete so a break out is imminent. I put more probability in a break out soon, whether it is real or a fake out.
• Some fundamentals from yesterday’s session might help you with your outlook:
• BOC Raises Rates…by Nick Nasad, BOC Rate Hike Supports Canadian Dollar by Hans Nilsson
• With fundamentals slightly tilting towards the loonie, we may see a break below and a test of parity again.
• In the short-term, a swing projection targets 1.02. 1.02 is a support area as well, as you can see in the weekly chart below.
• You will also see a negative reversal, albeit a weak one. A negative reversal is when the RSI makes a new high, but price does not.

Fan Yang
Currency Analyst
Commodity Trading Advisor

Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only and do not constitute an investment advice. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. FXTimes will not accept liability for any loss of profit or damage which may arise directly, indirectly or consequently from use of or reliance on the trading set-ups or any accompanying chart analyses.

All screenshots are made from VT Trader 2.0 and are of actual market data at the time of the screenshot.

USD/CAD: Stalking Sideways Action

• 4H and 1H: The 4H chart shows the market in a possible topping pattern near 1.0680. The USD/CAD has been in an uptrend and a channel, and there is a possibility of another bearish attempt towards the 1.08 area.
• With that said, if them arket breaks above the 1.0680 area, the 1.08 target is imminent.
• However, watch out for clear-outs that may break above for a bullish sign, but is really an exhaustion move to be followed by a decline.
• Now, on the other hand, if the market comes back down and breaks below 1.0550, there are some quick support levels. First of all, the rising channel, and 38.2% retracement levels are important. The first target of the decline is the 1.0470 area, then the.104 area.
• In case a wave v is still to follow, it should not break below 1.04. If the market breaks below1.04, the bullish outlook is in trouble, and most likely, the market will find a range between 1.07 and 1.0.

Fan Yang
Currency Analyst
Commodity Trading Advisor

Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only and do not constitute an investment advice. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. FXTimes will not accept liability for any loss of profit or damage which may arise directly, indirectly or consequently from use of or reliance on the trading set-ups or any accompanying chart analyses.

All screenshots are made from VT Trader 2.0 and are of actual market data at the time of the screenshot.

USD/CAD: Gartley Completed at 1.0650

• Daily: The daily chart shows that the USD/CAD has completed the Gartley mentioned in the video post (USD/CAD is the last pair discussed).
• The rall from 1.0135 area all the way to 1.0670 completes an AB=CD retracemnt pattern (another way to describe the Gartley).
• There is also expected resistance since this is between the 61.8% and 78.6% retracement levels.
• The RSI is breaking 60, but not necesarrily suggesting bullish outlook.
• I would stay reserved, even though the USD/CAD has rallied sharply, and look for topping here.

• Daily: The 4H chart shows the market starting a strong bearish 8am-12pm ET candle. However, that candle has 3 more hours to close. So far if it were to close this way, it is a strong bearish sign in the near-term.
• There is also a bearish divergence. I am not expecting a strong correction. I can still see the market rallying towards 1.1 area, but may 1.0850 area first.
• Therefore, this bearish divergence may be developing a consolidation from which a rally could spring from.
• One clue is the behavior of the RSI and price action. A positive reversal (If the RSI low is lower, but price low is higher) suggests further rally.
• This would occur if the price does not fall below 1.0470, since this is the price low corresponding to the last RSI low, which is already taken out, although the price low is still above the previous.

Fan Yang
Currency Analyst
Commodity Trading Advisor

Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only and do not constitute an investment advice. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. FXTimes will not accept liability for any loss of profit or damage which may arise directly, indirectly or consequently from use of or reliance on the trading set-ups or any accompanying chart analyses.

All screenshots are made from VT Trader 2.0 and are of actual market data at the time of the screenshot.

USD/CAD to Complete Gartley at 1.0650

• Daily and 4H: The Canadian Dollar has been very weak. Looking at the daily chart, we see the market supported at 1.0138, 78.6% retracement of the rally from below parity. There was a positive reversal setup, and the RSI stayed above 40.
• These are bullish signals. Reversal signals came from a piercing patter that bounced off of the 78.6% retracemen. Then price action confirmed. There was some stalling near the 1.04 area, but the market has continued the short to intermediate term uptrend today.
• The 4H chart shows that this current rally, may run out of steam near the 1.0650 area, a swing projection, and also suggesting a completion of a Gartley.
• This is between the 61.8% and 78.6% retracement.
• A bearish attempt may come from there. The USD/CAD seems to be entering a sideways ranging period, instead of the choppy downtrending period it was in for much of  2009 and early 2010.

Fan Yang
Currency Analyst
Commodity Trading Advisor

Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only and do not constitute an investment advice. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. FXTimes will not accept liability for any loss of profit or damage which may arise directly, indirectly or consequently from use of or reliance on the trading set-ups or any accompanying chart analyses.

All screenshots are made from VT Trader 2.0 and are of actual market data at the time of the screenshot.

USD/CAD At Channel Resistance After Poor Data

• Daily: The Daily chart shows the USD/CAD pair in a positive reversal, suggesting an upswing towards 1.0860 again.
• The market was very strong at rejecting the recent decline from going below the 78.6% retracement level. Today’s sharp rally has some fundamental spark, and shot up from a technical support. Now it is testing the channel resistance, so there may be some short-term,  resistance.

• 4H: The 4H chart shows that the intra day momentum is very strong. There was poor economic data from both the US and Canada. The risk aversion is what pushed the US to gain today. This can be seen in other USD crosses as the US session got under way.

Fan Yang
Currency Analyst
Commodity Trading Advisor

Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only and do not constitute an investment advice. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. FXTimes will not accept liability for any loss of profit or damage which may arise directly, indirectly or consequently from use of or reliance on the trading set-ups or any accompanying chart analyses.

All screenshots are made from VT Trader 2.0 and are of actual market data at the time of the screenshot.