The release of revised first quarter GDP threatens to weaken the US dollar index in the latter half of the week just as demand for the greenback was rising.

The US dollar index, a weighted average of the greenback’s value against a basket of major peers, has advanced 0.61% since May 21, thanks in large part to a stronger economic outlook. In the Asian session the dollar index was at 80.49, down 0.10%.

continue reading »

You can find out more about this trade and many others on my personal trading blog. I was stopped out on this trade previously, at breakeven — I think I had moved my stop to breakeven a little too early. However, I think there may be time to try again. I’m set to go long at 101.58, with my stop at 100.94. I have an initial profit target at 105, though with yen trades, I’m interested in holding out for a much larger move to 120 or so.

continue reading »

After facing a week of key fundamental risks USD-direction is unclear. Friday’s price action had 2-parts: 1) reaction to NFP (USD-positive), and 2) reaction to (USD-negative). 1) The NFP and jobs data was relatively positive, though blemished by very poor labor force participation rate data. 2) US Factory Orders for March came in at 1.1%. Forecasts called for a 1.5% reading for March.. The previous reading was revised down from 1.6% to 1.5%. This is still a positive gain, but fails to show any improving trend in this manufacturing data.

continue reading »

US NFP for April came in at 288K (highest since January 2012). This beat the median forecast of about 216K. The March reading was revised up from 192K to 203K. US Unemployment rate fell to 6.3% (lowest since September 2008) from the March reading of 6.7%. Labor force participation declined from 63.2% to 62.8%, which is now the lowest since 1978. Unless this trend reverses, any improvements in the jobs market will be taken with a gain of salt…

continue reading »

Fed Tapering Continues: If you expected a snoozer from today’s FOMC monetary statement, you got it. The Federal Reserve Bank plans to maintain its current pace of tapering, reducing QE by $10 billion for the 4th straight month, while keeping the federal funds rate under 0.25%. The market seems understanding to the harsh weather, but if data does not turn up in the Spring, the fed will have to address the weak economic recovery with more than just a blame on weather condition, which will push back any projections of a rate hike in 2015…

continue reading »

By: Dima Chernovolov This technical analysis report is based upon a trade opportunity taken from Autochartist’s Market Reports.   USD/JPY continues to rise after the recent breakout of the daily Triangle chart pattern that was earlier identified by Autochartist – as you can see from the following trade opportunity alert for this currency pair. USD/JPY…

continue reading »