USD/CAD was little changed after touching the lowest level since January 19. The consecutive 5-day decline was limited by an unexpected fall in Canada’s building permits and smaller-than-expected Ivey PMI gain. The Bank of Canada downgraded the risk for deflation and saw stronger economic growth in Tuesday’s policy statement. This is increasing bets the inflation-targeting BOC will raise rates ahead of the Federal Reserve. Technically, the USD/CAD is testing the 1.02-area support. If this support holds, the pair will form a triple bottom and lead to a short-term rally.
>
>pe<"text-align: center;">![]()
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o< and Economic News and Comments
oUS &> Canada</p>
<>i abor market is improving; however, its progress is slower than that of overall US economic growth. Initial jobless claims in the week ending February 27 fell 29,000 to a lower-than-expected 469,000 from the previous week’s upwardly revised 498,000 that was a 3-month high, figures from the Labor Department showed. The 4-week moving average of new jobless claims declined 3,500 to 470,750. Continuing claims in the week ending February 20 dropped 134,000 to 4,500,000, the lowest level since January 2009, from the preceding week’s upwardly revised 4,634,000. The 4-week moving average of those continuing claims decreased 29,250 to 4,575,750. The insured unemployment rate for the week ending February 20 declined to 3.5% from the prior week’s upwardly revised 3.6%.
US nmductivity rose at a strong 6.9% q/q annualized rate in Q4 2009 (vs. preliminarily reported 6.2% q/q) after an upwardly revised 7.8% q/q annualized pace in Q3, according to final Q4 data from the Labor Department. Q4 nonfarm productivity grew 5.8% y/y. Real compensation per hour in the nonfarm sector was down at a 2.8% q/q annualized rate in Q4 and down 0.6% y/y. Unit labor costs fell at a 5.9% q/q annualized rate in Q4 (vs. preliminarily reported -4.4% q/q) after falling at a revised 7.6% q/q annualized pace in Q3. Q4 unit labor costs declined 4.7% y/y.
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- US pendin< h>m< s>les unexpectedly fell 7.6% m/m in January amid severe weather conditions, the second fall in three months, after a downwardly revised 0.8% m/m increase in December, with the US pending home sales index released by the National Association of Realtors falling to 90.4 from December’s upwardly revised 97.8. January pending home sales rose 12.3% y/y, following a downwardly revised 10.5% y/y December increase.
tn< center;">
eaadjusted building permits unexpectedly fell 4.9% m/m to C$5.67 billion ($5.50 billion) in January, a third consecutive month-on-month fall, led by a drop in non-residential projects, after a downwardly revised 2.7% m/m decline in December, according to data from Statistics Canada. January building permits rose 32.7% y/y, a fourth straight year-on-year gain.
Canada’s IM< i>creased for a second month to a lower-than-expected 51.9 in February from 50.8 in January, indicating purchases in Canada’s public and private sectors were higher than the prior month, according to data from the Richard Ivey School of Business and the Purchasing Management Association of Canada.
<s"<-decor>Europe">trong>/str>>
>
En sted GDP increased 0.1% q/q in Q4 2009, unchanged from the flash estimate released on February 12, after a 0.4% q/q increase in Q3, preliminary Q4 GDP data from Eurostat showed, registering the second quarterly expansion since Q1 2008. The Q4 GDP declined an unrevised 2.1% y/y sa, easing from Q3’s 4.1% y/y contraction. The economy contracted 4.1% in 2009.
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Jap>/>t>’s >apita< fell > less-than-expected 17.3% y/y in Q4 2009, an 11th consecutiveof decline, after a 24.8% y/y decrease in Q3, data from the Ministnance showed. Capital spending exoftware declined 18.5% y/y in Q4, easing from a record 25.7% y/y Q3 drop.
- Australia’s trade i< n>rrowed more than expected to A$1.18 billion ($1.06 billion) in January, the smallest gap in 7 months, from a revised A$2.17 billion shortfall in December, according to figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
·            >er Industry Group/Housing Industry Association performance of construction index declined to 52.8 in February from 57.7 in January, indicating Australia’s construction sector expanded for a second straight month but at a slower pace, according to an AiG/HIA report.
FX Strategy Update
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>*Expe>aCth tion are provided by Hans Nilsson of Globicus International, Inc., a registered third party CTA, are intended for educational purposes only and do not constitute trading recommendations.
Past performance is not indica>u< r>sults. Trading OTC Forex on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Please contact a registered trading advisor if you have any questions.
This report is intended solelyr to customers of Capital Market Services, L.L.C. Any information in this report is based on data obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but no representations or guarantees are made by Capital Market Services, L.L.C. with regard to the accuracy of the data. The opinions and estimates contained herein constitute our best judgment at this date and time, and are subject to change without notice. Capital Market Services, L.L.C. accepts no responsibility or liability whatsoever for any expense, loss or damages arising out of, or in any way connected with, the use of all or any part of this report. No part of this report may be reproduced or distributed in any manner without the permission of Globicus International, Inc.
©2004-2010 Globicus Internatio ital Market Services, L.L.C.
>>
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Share
FX Strategy Briefing: Greenback Rises Ahead of Employment Report
Featured \ Hans Nilsson \ 6:47 PM EST \ March 4th, 2010n<"center">
n<"center">
oUS &> Canada </p>
<>i
abor market is improving; however, its progress is slower than that of overall US economic growth. Initial jobless claims in the week ending February 27 fell 29,000 to a lower-than-expected 469,000 from the previous week’s upwardly revised 498,000 that was a 3-month high, figures from the Labor Department showed. The 4-week moving average of new jobless claims declined 3,500 to 470,750. Continuing claims in the week ending February 20 dropped 134,000 to 4,500,000, the lowest level since January 2009, from the preceding week’s upwardly revised 4,634,000. The 4-week moving average of those continuing claims decreased 29,250 to 4,575,750. The insured unemployment rate for the week ending February 20 declined to 3.5% from the prior week’s upwardly revised 3.6%.- US nm
ductivity rose at a strong 6.9% q/q annualized rate in Q4 2009 (vs. preliminarily reported 6.2% q/q) after an upwardly revised 7.8% q/q annualized pace in Q3, according to final Q4 data from the Labor Department. Q4 nonfarm productivity grew 5.8% y/y. Real compensation per hour in the nonfarm sector was down at a 2.8% q/q annualized rate in Q4 and down 0.6% y/y. Unit labor costs fell at a 5.9% q/q annualized rate in Q4 (vs. preliminarily reported -4.4% q/q) after falling at a revised 7.6% q/q annualized pace in Q3. Q4 unit labor costs declined 4.7% y/y.
"a![]()
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<"p>
- US pendin< h>m< s>les unexpectedly fell 7.6% m/m in January amid severe weather conditions, the second fall in three months, after a downwardly revised 0.8% m/m increase in December, with the US pending home sales index released by the National Association of Realtors falling to 90.4 from December’s upwardly revised 97.8. January pending home sales rose 12.3% y/y, following a downwardly revised 10.5% y/y December increase.
><
tn< center;">
eaadjusted building permits unexpectedly fell 4.9% m/m to C$5.67 billion ($5.50 billion) in January, a third consecutive month-on-month fall, led by a drop in non-residential projects, after a downwardly revised 2.7% m/m decline in December, according to data from Statistics Canada. January building permits rose 32.7% y/y, a fourth straight year-on-year gain.
- Canada’s IM< i>creased for a second month to a lower-than-expected 51.9 in February from 50.8 in January, indicating purchases in Canada’s public and private sectors were higher than the prior month, according to data from the Richard Ivey School of Business and the Purchasing Management Association of Canada.
- En
sted GDP increased 0.1% q/q in Q4 2009, unchanged from the flash estimate released on February 12, after a 0.4% q/q increase in Q3, preliminary Q4 GDP data from Eurostat showed, registering the second quarterly expansion since Q1 2008. The Q4 GDP declined an unrevised 2.1% y/y sa, easing from Q3’s 4.1% y/y contraction. The economy contracted 4.1% in 2009.
eAsia-Pacificg>
<s"<-decor>Europe ">trong>/str>>
>
="p a"ign="ce="er"" >rJap>/>t>’s >apita< fell > less-than-expected 17.3% y/y in Q4 2009, an 11th consecutiveof decline, after a 24.8% y/y decrease in Q3, data from the Ministnance showed. Capital spending exoftware declined 18.5% y/y in Q4, easing from a record 25.7% y/y Q3 drop.
- Australia’s trade i< n>rrowed more than expected to A$1.18 billion ($1.06 billion) in January, the smallest gap in 7 months, from a revised A$2.17 billion shortfall in December, according to figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
FX Strategy Updateb0" cellspacing="0""<" width="627">
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>*Expe>aCth tion are provided by Hans Nilsson of Globicus International, Inc., a registered third party CTA, are intended for educational purposes only and do not constitute trading recommendations.
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alaidi: RT @MarvellousR8kie @alaidi Thank you very much for the valuable insights. Great seminar. Thks for coming ! #forex
Fxflow: A MUST For Anyone who Trades FX! Free e-book from BK -Don't Trade Like Tony Montana FX http://t.co/WTBAVCeZ .03
RagheeHorner: $GBPUSD 240-minute swing entry update video walk-thru http://t.co/Gd2ELB55 #forex $$
RagheeHorner: $GBPUSD Follows-Through as Greenback Slides Towards Psych Level http://t.co/wVNJGzNH #forex $$
robbooker: Good morning Twitter
alaidi: Sandy kicking off the seminar, Ill take over at Noon http://t.co/xrZdNmNC #forex $SPX
alaidi: Pretty much replicated $EURUSD shorts on Thurs nite as on Tue; results were the same, peaks at 1.32 back to hit 13080s targets #forex
JEliasof: Thank you kindly! Have a great weekend. @SE1_Trading @LeeGrins @aussietorres @knmtechnology @esanchez81 (cont) http://t.co/mwArOhWy
JohnKicklighter: Need to launch changes on DailyFX so US traders can watch videos. May take a few days. Meantime US viewers can go here: http://t.co/z54gnUQY
JohnKicklighter: Weekend Video (now available to US viewers): AUDUSD and Dow Clear Resistance Post NFPs, EURUSD Anchored http://t.co/eDfHlafs
JohnKicklighter: And, there were no fireworks in US crude positioning this past week. But then again, oil held congestion http://t.co/XOKxCq4l
JohnKicklighter: We had a notable jump in the net long interest in gold this past week. Feeding into the metal's upswing. http://t.co/9Q5FNffe
JohnKicklighter: We've noted the divergence between S&P 500 price and volume. Add to that net speculative positioning. http://t.co/PHLpdOMi
JohnKicklighter: We talk about the short-cover potential in EURUSD, but what about the unwinding of this big $AUDUSD long buildup. http://t.co/uHep6hbe
JohnKicklighter: In the meantime, here is the $EURUSD versus the net speculative Euro interest. A lot more room for covering here.. http://t.co/d7P0JHsa
JohnKicklighter: Loading the weekend video now. Should be up soon.
JohnKicklighter: @JamieSaettele Online during the Superbowl...that is dedication.
JamieSaettele: weekly http://t.co/FjE1lFRL i WILL be online sunday night during the super bowl after I smoke my ribs on the grill
Fxflow: #forex Yet another Friday where $EURUSD is rallying into the close on spec that Greek deal will be done.
JohnKicklighter: The US Dollar Index fell far behind this recent build up in net speculative positioning in dollars. http://t.co/vMcNiXT7
JohnKicklighter: Here's the Dow Jones Industrial Average and its respective volume lull as well. http://t.co/e2X4CbFK
JohnKicklighter: Too much to expect a multi-month high close on the $S&P 500 to garner greater turnover. http://t.co/vnF8MqmY
kathylienfx: Co-chairs of Greek Creditors Committee flying into Athens this w/e - either tough decisions need to be made or a deal is ready to be closed
kathylienfx: Best performing currency pair today is CADJPY +1.11%, Worst performing is EUR/CAD -0.60%
Fxflow: RT @kathylienfx: @Fxflow Congrats on cracking above 8k// thanks K Flow Rules! :)
JamieSaettele: crosses http://t.co/sTJIEdld better opportunities here (still) than in usd imo
kathylienfx: Awesome Timetable on Greece courtesy of WSJ. Print it out or save the link http://t.co/RnUs2EYX
JohnKicklighter: ...great quote from Sebastien Galy at Soc Gen in that article, “The SNB’s hand is being forced and it will likely be fairly brutal.â€
JohnKicklighter: According to a good FT article on SNB political pressure for solid intervention, the options market is pricing in a 30% chance of 1.20 break
kathylienfx: EUR net short positions down 8 percent - confirming that shorts were "squeezed" over the past week
Join the Conversation » -
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- Non-Farm Payroll Coverage & Weekly Wrap-Up – 2.03.11 (8:00AM ET, 13:00GMT)
- Cable Follows-Through as Greenback Slides Towards Psych Level
- EUR: The Potential Catalysts For A Breakout
- USD Rallies Following Non-Farm Payrolls
- 3 Implications & Breakdown of Jan NFP Report
- London embraces Valbury Capital, a South East Asian Financial Tiger
- Mixed Reactions in the US Dollar to the Non-Farm Payroll
- U.S. Dollar Reversal Underway, Euro Eyes 23.6% Fib
- Trade Idea: EUR/GBP – Sell at 0.8365
- Trade Idea: USD/CAD – Hold short entered at 1.0050
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><30.00=" ">/tr> <d<>Past performance is not indica>u< r>sults. Trading OTC Forex on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Please contact a registered trading advisor if you have any questions.
This report is intended solelyr to customers of Capital Market Services, L.L.C. Any information in this report is based on data obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but no representations or guarantees are made by Capital Market Services, L.L.C. with regard to the accuracy of the data. The opinions and estimates contained herein constitute our best judgment at this date and time, and are subject to change without notice. Capital Market Services, L.L.C. accepts no responsibility or liability whatsoever for any expense, loss or damages arising out of, or in any way connected with, the use of all or any part of this report. No part of this report may be reproduced or distributed in any manner without the permission of Globicus International, Inc.
©2004-2010 Globicus Internatioital Market Services, L.L.C.
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Trading OTC Forex on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange or futures you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange and futures trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.