Fundamental Updates \Nick Nasad \ 11:24 AM EST \ February 1st, 2010
Week of February 1st – 5th
Monday 1
Tuesday 2
Wednesday 3
Thursday 4
Friday 5
UK Manufacturing PMI 4:30AM
US Personal Spending 8:30AM
US ISM Manufacturing PMI 10AM
AUS RBA Decision 10:30PM
GER Retail Sales 2AM
US Pending Home Sales 10AM
AUS Trade Balance 7:30PM
UK Services PMI 4:30AM
US ADP Employment Change 8:15AM
US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 10AM
NZ Employment Change 4:45PM
AUD Retail Sales 7:30PM
UK BOE Decision 7AM
EUR ECB Decision 7:45AM
US Jobless Claims 8:30AM
US Labor Productivity 8:30AM
CAN Ivey PMI 10AM
UK PPI 4:30AM
CAN Employment Change 7AM
US Non-Farm Employment Change 8:30AM
ALL G7 Meeting
The first week of February has the usual suspects in terms of key releases, including timely information on activity in the US manufacturing and services and a look at the January employment picture. Following December’s weaker-than-expected jobs figure, expectations are for a small positive gain in jobs in January. The greenback had a strong week as the FOMC improved its outlook on the economy and GDP growth for the 4th quarter was impressive. With the Euro-zone suffering from worries over Greece’s credit, a strong January non-farm payroll report would only extend the theme that the US recovery is outpacing its rivals. On Thursday, we will hear from the Bank of England and the European Central Bank. Traders will be looking to see if the ECB sounds a dovish tone as a result of its recent troubles, and what the BOE will do with its quantitative easing program when the economy posted rather anemic growth in the 4th quarter. Late Monday, the Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to raise interest rates to 4%, from 3.75%, as its economy is growing, helped by the expansion in China which has boosted demand for Australian goods and raw materials.
Week of February 8th – January 12th
Monday 8
Tuesday 9
Wednesday 10
Thursday 11
Friday 12
SWZ Unemployment Rate 1:45AM
SWZ Retail Sales 3:15AM
UK BRC Retail Sales Monitor 7PM
GER Trade Balance 2AM
UK Manufacturing Production 4:30AM
CAN Housing Starts 8:15AM
AUS Home Loans 7:30AM
UK BOE Inflation Report 5:30AM
CAN Trade Balance 8:30AM
US Trade Balance 8:30AM
AUS Employment Change 8:30AM
US Retail Sales 8:30AM
US Jobless Claims 8:30AM
NZ Retail Sales 4:45PM
GER Prelim. GDP 2AM
EUR Flash GDP 5AM
EUR Industrial Production 5AM
US UMich Consumer Confidence 9:55AM
The second week of February isn’t full of releases like we have in the first week. There are no central bank decisions, and the US is limited to posting data on retail sales and its trade balance. The end of the week brings the first look at 4th quarter GDP figures from the Euro-zone as well as industrial production. Australia will release its monthly jobs report on Wednesday. The UK will post a measure of retail sales on Monday and data on manufacturing production on Tuesday, with its BOE inflation report coming out on Wednesday.
Week of February 15th – 19th
Monday 15
Tuesday 16
Wednesday 17
Thursday 18
Friday 19
UK Trade balance 4:30AM
US Bank Holiday
NZ Producer Prices 4:45PM
JPN Prelim GDP 6:50PPM
AUS RBA Meeting Minutes 7:30PM
UK Consumer Prices 4:30AM
GER ZEW Economic Sentiment 5AM
US Empire Manufacturing Index 8:30AM
US TIC Long-Term Purchases 9AM
UK Claimant Count 4:30AM
UK MPC Meeting Minutes 4:30AM
EUR Trade Balance 5AM
US Housing Starts 8:30AM
US Industrial Production 9:15AM
US FOMC Meeting Minutes 2PM
JPN BOJ Decision 11:30PM
CAN Consumer Prices 7AM
US Producer Prices 8:30AM
US Jobless Claims 8:30AM
US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index 10AM
US CB Leading Index 10AM
UK PPI 4:30AM
UK Retail Sales 4:30AM
CAN Retail Sales 8:30AM
US Consumer Prices 8:30AM
This week will start with a holiday in the US, so thin liquidity can expected on Monday. The UK has four important releases, its trade balance on Monday, consumer prices on Tuesday, its monthly jobs report on Wednesday, and retail sales data on Friday. That will give traders insight into the UK’s trade, labor market and consumer spending/inflation, three important pieces of data to shed light on the country’s economic recovery. From the US, we get data on industrial production and a look at two regional manufacturing surveys – the NY Empire and Philadelphia Fed manufacturing indexes. Also, the US posts both its producer and consumer prices, which so far have not put pressure on the Fed to raise rates in order to contain inflation. The end of the week will also bring the Conference Board’s measure of US leading indicators and the UMich mid-February consumer sentiment index. From around the world, the first half of the week features Japan posting its preliminary version of 4th quarter GDP and Germany releasing its ZEW economic sentiment index. The second half of the week Canada unveils its consumer prices and retail sales figures.
Week of February 22st – February 26th
Monday 22
Tuesday 23
Wednesday 24
Thursday 25
Friday 26
EUR Flash Services PMI 4AM
EUR Flash Manufacturing PMI 4AM
GER Ifo Business Climate 4AM
US CB Consumer Confidence 10AM
JPN Trade Balance 6:50PM
EUR Industrial New Orders 5AM
US New Home Sales 10AM
AUS Private Capital Expenditure 7:30PM
NZ NBNZ Business Confidence 9PM
GER Unemployment Change 3:55AM
UK CBI Realized Sales 6AM
US Durable Goods Orders 8:30AM
US Jobless Claims 8:30AM
NZ Building Consents 4:45PM
NZ Trade Balance 4:45PM
JPN Consumer Prices 6:30PM
JPN Household Spending 6:30PM
JPN Retail Sales 6:50PM
JPN Industrial Production 6:50PM
UK Revised GDP 4:30AM
EUR Consumer Prices 5AM
US Prelim. GDP 8:30AM
US Chicago PMI 9:45AM
US UMich Consumer Confidence 9:55AM
US Existing Home Sales 10AM
The final week of February starts slow in terms of fundamental releases, with the Euro-zone posting its preliminary versions of manufacturing and services PMI’s. Tuesday brings us a trade report from Japan, where traders will be looking for how Japanese exports are faring, an investor confidence survey from Germany, and a look at US consumer confidence from the Conference Board. The latter half of the week, the Euro-zone releases data on industrial new orders, Germany’s monthly jobs report, and its consumer prices. Japan posts a slew of end-of-the-month reports including data on consumer inflation, retail sales, the unemployment rate, household spending, and industrial production. From the US, the second half of the week holds data on new and existing home sales, a measure of durable goods orders, the Chicago PMI, and a second look at 4th quarter GDP.
Looking Ahead: February’s Fundamental Releases
Fundamental Updates \ Nick Nasad \ 11:24 AM EST \ February 1st, 2010Week of February 1st – 5th
US Personal Spending 8:30AM
US ISM Manufacturing PMI 10AM
AUS RBA Decision 10:30PM
US Pending Home Sales 10AM
AUS Trade Balance 7:30PM
US ADP Employment Change 8:15AM
US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 10AM
NZ Employment Change 4:45PM
AUD Retail Sales 7:30PM
EUR ECB Decision 7:45AM
US Jobless Claims 8:30AM
US Labor Productivity 8:30AM
CAN Ivey PMI 10AM
CAN Employment Change 7AM
US Non-Farm Employment Change 8:30AM
ALL G7 Meeting
Week of February 8th – January 12th
SWZ Retail Sales 3:15AM
UK BRC Retail Sales Monitor 7PM
UK Manufacturing Production 4:30AM
CAN Housing Starts 8:15AM
AUS Home Loans 7:30AM
CAN Trade Balance 8:30AM
US Trade Balance 8:30AM
AUS Employment Change 8:30AM
US Jobless Claims 8:30AM
NZ Retail Sales 4:45PM
EUR Flash GDP 5AM
EUR Industrial Production 5AM
US UMich Consumer Confidence 9:55AM
Week of February 15th – 19th
US Bank Holiday
NZ Producer Prices 4:45PM
JPN Prelim GDP 6:50PPM
AUS RBA Meeting Minutes 7:30PM
GER ZEW Economic Sentiment 5AM
US Empire Manufacturing Index 8:30AM
US TIC Long-Term Purchases 9AM
UK MPC Meeting Minutes 4:30AM
EUR Trade Balance 5AM
US Housing Starts 8:30AM
US Industrial Production 9:15AM
US FOMC Meeting Minutes 2PM
JPN BOJ Decision 11:30PM
US Producer Prices 8:30AM
US Jobless Claims 8:30AM
US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index 10AM
US CB Leading Index 10AM
UK Retail Sales 4:30AM
CAN Retail Sales 8:30AM
US Consumer Prices 8:30AM
Week of February 22st – February 26th
EUR Flash Manufacturing PMI 4AM
US CB Consumer Confidence 10AM
JPN Trade Balance 6:50PM
US New Home Sales 10AM
AUS Private Capital Expenditure 7:30PM
NZ NBNZ Business Confidence 9PM
UK CBI Realized Sales 6AM
US Durable Goods Orders 8:30AM
US Jobless Claims 8:30AM
NZ Building Consents 4:45PM
NZ Trade Balance 4:45PM
JPN Consumer Prices 6:30PM
JPN Household Spending 6:30PM
JPN Retail Sales 6:50PM
JPN Industrial Production 6:50PM
EUR Consumer Prices 5AM
US Prelim. GDP 8:30AM
US Chicago PMI 9:45AM
US UMich Consumer Confidence 9:55AM
US Existing Home Sales 10AM