Week of April  26th – 30th

Monday 26	Tuesday 27	Wednesday 28	Thursday 29	Friday 30
AUS Producer Price Index (1Q) 9:30PM AUS NAB Quarterly Business Confidence 10:30PM	UK CBI Realized Retail Sales 6AM US S&P/CS 20-City House Price Index 9AM US CB Consumer Confidence 10AM JPN Retail Sales 7:50PM AUS Consumer Price Index (1Q) 9:30AM	US FOMC Interest Rate Decision 2:15PM NZ RBNZ Interest Rate Decision 5PM NZ Trade Balance 6:45PM	GER Unemploy. Change 4AM US Jobless Claims 8:30AM JPN Manufact. PMI 7:15PM JPN Consumer Prices Index 7:30PM JPN Household Spending 7:30PM JPN Unemploy. Rate 7:30PM JPN BOJ Interest Rate Decision 11:30PM	EUR Flash CPI 5AM EUR Unemploy. Rate 5AM US GDP (1Q) 8:30AM CAN GDP 8:30AM US Chicago PMI 9:45AM US UMich Consumer Sentiment 10AM

The final week of April will have several important events for the US, with the main two being Wednesday’s FOMC interest rate statement and Friday’s first look at 1^st quarter GDP. The US grew at an annualized pace of 5.6% in the 4^th quarter and we’ll see what kind of momentum the recovery managed to build during the 1^st quarter. Recent data on industrial production, retail sales, and employment showed continued improvement. The FOMC is taking in all of the data showing the economy gathering momentum and traders will be looking for any clues as to when the Fed will drop its language calling for keeping “low rates for an extended period of time.” While the labor market is starting to show positive job growth, one of the main reasons the Fed gave for keeping rates low, what we are also seeing is very weak consumer inflation which gives the Fed leeway to keep rates low for longer.

Key releases from around the world include measures of producer and consumer inflation for the 1^st quarter from Australia. Higher readings would give support to a more hawkish RBA. From the Euro-zone we will see German employment and retail sales data while on Friday we get measures of Euro-zone CPI and unemployment rate. Euro-zone unemployment is running at 10% while annual inflation posted a 1.4% in March. From Japan, we get end of the month statistics including consumer prices, household spending, manufacturing PMI, as well as the Bank of Japan interest rate decision. We have a third central bank meeting during the week when the Reserve Bank of New Zealand concludes its meeting on Wednesday. The NZ economy has been softer than Australia and so far has not hiked rates since they came down from 7.5% to 2.5% following the credit crunch of ‘08.

Week of May 3rd – 7th

Monday 3	Tuesday 3	Wednesday 5	Thursday 6	Friday 7
UK Manufacturing PMI 4:30AMUS Personal Spending & Incomes 8:30AM US ISM Manufacturing PMI 10AM	AUS RBA Decision 10:30PMAUS Annual Budget Release (Tent.) US Pending Home Sales 10AM US Factory Orders 10AM	UK Services PMI 4:30AMEUR Retail Sales 5AM US ADP Employment Change 8:15AM US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 10AM NZ Employment Change 6:45PM AUS Trade Balance 9:30PM AUS Retail Sales 9:30PM	UK Parliamentary Election EUR ECB Decision 7:45AM US Jobless Claims 8:30AM US Labor Productivity 8:30AM CAN Ivey PMI 10AM	UK PPI 4:30AMCAN Employment Change 7AMUS Non-Farm Employment Change 8:30AM ALL G7 Meeting

The first week of April is dominated by our usual suspects, mainly manufacturing and services data from our major economies that should give investors and economists a sense of activity in those sectors during April, plus our US monthly jobs report on Friday. In March the US economy added 162K jobs and it will be important to see similar consistent gains in jobs to push the theme that the US economy is gathering pace. Also from the US we get data on pending home sales, a leading indicator for the housing market as well as data on personal incomes and spending.

This week will also focus on some key Australian data including services, trade, retail sales, building approvals, the annual budget, as well as the RBA interest rate statement. The RBA hiked rates in their April meeting and recent data is showing that the economy is cooling as consumers and the housing market absorb the higher rates as a result of the RBA tightening campaign. The most recent RBA minutes were rather hawkish but it may be too much too soon if the RBA hikes in this meeting.

Three more important events will be the ECB interest rate meeting on Thursday, Friday’s Canada employment data as well as the UK Parliamentary election.

Week of May 10th – 14th

Monday 10	Tuesday 11	Wednesday 12	Thursday 13	Friday 14
UK BOE Interest Rate Decision 7AM CAN Housing Starts 8:15AM	UK Manufacturing Production 4:30AM AUS Home Loans 7:30AM	UK Claimant Count Change 4:30AM UK BOE Inflation Report 5:30AM CAN Trade Balance 8:30AM US Trade Balance 8:30AM AUS Employment Change 8:30AM	GER Prelim GDP 2AM US Jobless Claims 8:30AM NZ Retail Sales 4:45PM	US Retail Sales 8:30AM US Industrial Production 9:15AM US UMich Consumer Confidence 9:55AM

This week begins with the BOE deciding on interest rates which is fitting considering we have a slew of reports from the UK in the first half of the week. That includes figures on manufacturing production, the claimant count, trade balance, and the BOE inflation report. Along with the data on 1^st quarter GDP we should have a much better sense at the end of this week of how the UK economy’s recovery is faring.

The US fundamental docket is light this week with all releases back loaded. On Wednesday the US release its trade and budget deficit figures while on Friday we get data on retail sales, industrial production, and consumer confidence. Other key releases include the Australian employment report and first release of the Euro-zone 1^st quarter GDP.