Yen Rises as Risk Appetite Falls

Featured \ Hans Nilsson \ 6:30 PM EST \ July 16th, 2010
  • The dollar closed mixed on Friday, lower versus the yen but higher against the commodity currencies, on further signs of slowing US economic growth. The dollar index, rising for the first day in four, rose to 82.56 after finding the 82-area support. July consumer expectations dropped to the lowest level since March 2009 and June consumer prices declined for a third month. The S&P 500 plunged 31.60 to 1,064.88 on disappointing earnings reports and global recovery worries. The euro hit the highest level since May 10 after Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said Europe would always be one of the main investment markets for China’s foreign exchange reserves. However, the overbought EUR/USD was unable to rise above the 1.30-area resistance and closed slightly lower. Unable to penetrate the 1.55-area resistance, the GBPUSD reversed most of yesterday’s strong gain. The Australian and Canadian dollars closed sharply lower as commodity prices declined. For the week, the greenback fell versus the European and Japanese currencies but gained against the aussie and loonie.>USD/JPY fell to a 7-month low, pressured by carry trade unwinding and narrowing interest-rate spreads. The pair has traded lower since peaking in early-May. The sharp drop on May 6 caused the so-called flash crash in the stock market. Both the USD/JPY and stock market recovered after May 6; however, having trended lower. The USD/JPY is approaching the 86-area support. If this is broken, the pair will likely test the November 27 low at 84.80.l<"/>

    <Fin>ncial and Economic News and Comments

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  • onsumer prices slipped 0.1% m/m in June, a third consecutive monthly decline, after a 0.2% m/m decrease in May, according to CPI data from the Labor Department, indicating US consumer-price inflation remains well contained. The consumer-price inflation rate decelerated to 1.1% y/y, the lowest since October 2009, from May’s 2.0% y/y. The June month-on-month CPI decline was led by energy costs, which fell 2.9% m/m for a second month. Food prices were unchanged for a second month. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy, was up 0.2% m/m in June, the largest gain since October 2009, after a 0.1% m/m increase in May. The core CPI rate held at 0.9% y/y for a third successive month. Meanwhile, real average hourly earnings increased 0.1% m/m and 0.9% y/y in June, a separate report from the Labor Department showed.
  • >h< R>uters/University of Michigan preliminary consumer sentiment index fell to a lower-than-anticipated 66.5 in July from 76.0 in June, indicating US consumer confidence dropped to the lowest level since August 2009, according to the latest Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan surveys of consumers, compared with July 2009’s 66.0. The 9.5-point decrease from June’s figure was the largest since October 2008. The current economic conditions index slid to 75.5 in July, an 8-month low, from 85.6 a month earlier. The consumer expectations index declined to 60.6, the lowest level since March 2009, from June’s 69.8.
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    <>tepurchases of long-term US securities slowed to $35.4 billion in May from a downwardly revised $81.5 billion in April, while monthly net TIC flows increased to $17.5 billion from April’s downwardly revised $13.0 billion, figures from the Treasury Department showed.
  • The ieading economic indicators index, a measure of future economic activity, was up a more-thanexpected 1.0% m/m to 242.5 in June, a 13th straight monthly gain, after upwardly revised increases of 1.1% m/m in May and April, led by growth in the manufacturing sector, according to LEI data from Statistics Canada; thus, pointing to a sustainable Canadian economic expansion. New orders for durable goods rose 2.3% m/m in June, a fifth consecutive monthly rise.
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  • o<-s>ally adjusted terms, the eurozone trade balance showed a €3.4 billion ($4.4 billion) deficit in May, larger than expected, after a downwardly revised €0.3 billion surplus in April, compared with a €2.2 billion surplus in May 2009, figures from Eurostat showed. In seasonally adjusted terms, the trade balance unexpectedly registered a €3.0 billion deficit in May, the first monthly shortfall since February 2009, following a downwardly revised €0.1 billion surplus a month earlier. Seasonally adjusted exports, rising slower than imports, increased 1.6% m/m to €123.6 billion in May after a revised 3.1% m/m decrease in April. Seasonally imports rose 4.2% m/m to €126.5 billion, following April’s revised 3.0% m/m decline.
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    • The Japyu activity index declined a slightly more-than-expected 0.9% m/m sa to 97.1 in May after an upwardly revised 2.4% m/m advance in April, indicating Japan’s demand for services fell for the third time in four months, according to data from the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry. The index was up 1.0% y/y sa, a fifth successive year-on-year increase, following April’s upwardly revised 1.8% y/y gain.

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      "li>j="an’s nationwi"e>t e sales fell 6.0% y/y in June, a 28th straight year-on-year slide, after a 2.1% y/y decrease in May, data from the Japan Department Stores Association showed. Tokyo department store sales slid 5.5% y/y, also down for a 28th consecutive month, following May’s 1.8% y/y decline.

    >d<> EUR/USDUSY>USD>CHF>CAD>USD>JPYr< knd-coloc"< Primary Trend Nega/ Neutt<> Nega/ Posi/ Nega/ Neutt<> Nega/ Secondary Trend Neutt<> Nega/ Posi/ Nega/ Neutt<> Neutt<> Nega/ Outlook Neutt<> Neutt<> Posi/ Nega/ Posi/ Neutt<> Neutt<> Action None Long> />/>/>/>/> e="bocolo1"< Current 1.2926 8<.6> <1>5<98>/td> <1>0<14>/td> >.<54> >.<69> >1<.0> style=gd-colo7"< Start Position N/A <>7.75 t<> >td>t<> >td>1./>/>/> t"bauoloc"< Objective N/A N/< N/><N/><N/><N/><N/>< t"bauolof"< Stop N/A 85.75>t<> >td>t<> >td>1./>/>/> ><ows2<>S>ppod e<"border-bottom> 0px noa1.2550 0px noa86.00 px noa1.5200 0px noa1.0300 0px noa1.0200 0px noa0.8600 0px noa107.50 er-top i1.2150 none;i84.80 none;i1.5000 none;i1.0100 none;i1.0000 none;i0.8300 none;i106.00 >Resis<><tom: 0px noa1.3000 0px noa90.00 px noa1.5500 0px noa1.0750 0px noa1.0600 0px noa0.8850 0px noa113.50 er-top i1.3250 none;i92.00 none;i1.5700 none;i1.1000 none;i1.0800 none;i0.9050 none;i120.00 ">>tw.o ><Ex>s information are provided by Hans Nilsson of Globicus International, Inc., a registered third party CTA, are intended for educational purposes only and do not constitute trading recommendations.

    lPfuture results. Trading OTC Forex on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Please contact a registered trading advisor if you have any questions.

    Ttribution to customers of Capital Market Services, LLC. Any information in this report is based on data obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but no representations or guarantees are made by Capital Market Services, LLC with regard to the accuracy of the data. The opinions and estimates contained herein constitute our best judgment at this date and time, and are subject to change without notice. Capital Market Services, LLC accepts no responsibility or liability whatsoever for any expense, loss or damages arising out of, or in any way connected with, the use of all or any part of this report. No part of this report may be reproduced or distributed in any manner without the permission of Globicus International, Inc.

    ©<0><-2><0 Globicus International, In>. and Capital Market Services, LLC.

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    1. Rating 0
      Commented: July 17th, 2010
      It was in late April and early May, 2010 that the currency traders sold the world currencies and bought the yen as concerns arose of the European sovereign debt crisis. This commenced global debt deflation. Debt deflation is the contraction and crisis that follows credit expansion. One of the most famous quotations of Austrian economist Ludwig von Mises is from page 572 of Human Action: “There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency involved.” Global Debt Deflation saw the value shares fail to outperform the growth shares, which was most recently interrupted by a stock market rally from June 7, 2010 to July 17, 2010. But on July 18, 2010 the value shares went back to falling faster than the growth shares. This rewarded those who were short the value shares with bear market ETFs such as SJH and TZA, which rose 7.5% and 11% on July 18, 2010. The bear stock market that began April 26, 2010 recommenced on July 18, 2010 as Citigroup And Bank Of America reported lower revenues. I appreciate your handy table titled FX Strategy Update which shows EUR/USD Primary Trend Negative, Action None … and EUR/JPY Primary Trend Negative, Action None. Personally, I am bearish the Euro, FXE, last traded at 1.2926; and I am bearish EUR/JPY, last traded at 112.03. I believe that all debt, AGG, all sovereign debt, TLT, IEF, SHY, all EFSF Monetary Debt if issued, all corporate debt CFT, all stocks, ACWI, and all currencies, such as FXA, FXE, FXM, FXC, ICN, FXB, FXS, SZR, FXF, CYB, BZF, XRU, FXB and FXY are headed off into “the pit of investment abandon”, albeit at varying rates. Yes, the Yen, FXY, may have put in a high. The chart of gold, $GOLD, shows that concern over the European Sovereign Debt crisis stimulated an investment demand for gold, as gold rose from 1,060 on February 8, 2010 to $1,250 on June 18, 2010 and is now trading July 16, 2010 at $1,190: it has arisen as the sovereign currency and storehouse of investment value. The chart of the US Government Ten Year Note, IEF, shows that concern over the European Sovereign Debt crisis stimulated a flight to perceived safe haven investment in US Ten Year Government notes in April 2010; but as one will notice, the chart shows three white soldiers on the July 16th, 17th and 18th the bullish reversal pattern consisting of three consecutive white bodies, each with a higher close, suggests we have reached the end of the age of credit and a turn lower in the value of US sovereign debt. With stocks and debt BOTH now turning lower, gold appears to be the best investment choice for individuals, and short selling of stocks with SJH and TZA, as well as short selling of debt with TMV, and short selling of the currency pair EURUSD and EURJPY seems reasonable for institutional investors.
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