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During 1/31 US session, market has failed to confirm breakout and remains in the bearish channel…

EUR/USD did find support at the 1.30800 PPZ, but i didn’t add more position due to trouble area 38.2% retracement in the near term, still only holding 1.30030 long position on 23/01 and 1.29700 retest long position on 24/01, after 27/01 US session close, price reached 1.31900. will see what PA act on Monday.

double top invalidated as market pushes above 1.57

9:30 stock open gives EUR/USD back the bullish tone after poor GDP initially knocked EUR/USD down to 1.3092. 1.32 still looks viable in the 1/27 US session.

9:30 AM US stocks open – reaction against the initial GDP reaction. SP500 respecting support levels so far. USD weakens. EUR/USD, AUD/USD paring initial losses.

Thanks for you interaction Fan. Don’t worry, I am able to make my own decisons. And it has done just that stalled, but we’ll see what they do as the day progresses Dawne

Hi Dawne,

Great question. First, I can’t claim to “know” the market will retrace 50%. It certainly can retrace 38.2% and continue if the trend is strong. It can go to 61.8% and still be in the context of a correction. Past that it is less likely, but again, not impossible for the previous trend to continue.

The projection here is for the purpose of calculating your reward to risk. 50% is therefore a guide for decision making. Now after entering a counter-trend trade, if the market stalls at 38.2% retracement, and starts popping back up in the European session (I would give a move in the Asian session less credit), then you might consider an emergency exit and get out with a small profit or loss. If it occurs during a dead period (like in the pre- or early Asian session, I may consider holding instead of being shaken out.

So Dawne, as much as I encourage you to read my analysis, I don’t want you to hold my specific projections as predictions but more of a guide for assessing your potential reward to risk.

I discuss the trading strategy for these setups much more in detail during our webinars during the week, so I hope we can have more discussions then.

Thanks again for the question.

Sorry, and in combination with a retest of the downtrend at around there as well. Could it not just as easily go back up off the 23.6 – Just wanted to know how you come to that conclusion, thanks