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CAD Positives
  1. Very strong April (58.2K) and March (82.3K) employment gains. Momentum in labor market.
  2. Housing Starts jump in April to 245K annualized pace – best since Sept. 2007.
  3. Building Permits rise 4.7%, beating forecasts as non-residential perimts (+13.9% m/m) show strong increase.
CAD Negatives
  1. Risk aversion from Europe can weight on risk sentiment, pressuring equities and commodities, weakening CAD.
  2. Inflation has been contained, get our latest release Friday (May 18th).
  3. BOC, while tipped to raise rates in the next year, may wait till 4Q 2012/1Q 2013.
  4. Is there a housing bubble brewing, the BOC has warned of a jump in household debt levels.
  5. Strong C$ may hurt exporters.
Bias: Favor the CAD from a Fundamental Bias





Growth and Sector Activity
Released for: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
  Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
GDP m/m 0.1% -0.2%                    
  – 2011 0.5% -0.1% 0.3% 0.0% -0.3% 0.2% 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% -0.1% 0.5%
GDP q/q (2011) 0.9%%     -0.1%     1.0%     0.4%    
Leading Index 0.4% 0.7% 0.4%                  
  – 2011 0.4% 1.1% 0.6% 0.9% 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.9% 0.7%
Ivey PMI 64.1 66.5 63.5 52.7                
  – 2011 41.4 70.8 73.2 57.8 65.5 59.9 46.8 56.4 55.7 54.4 59.9 63.5
Demand
Released for: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Retail Sales 0.2% -0.2%                    
  – 2011 0.4% 0.5% -0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.8% -0.5% 0.6% 1.0% 0.9% 0.4% 0.0%
- Core Sales -0.8% 0.5%                    
  – 2011 -0.2% 0.8% -0.2% 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.1% 0.4% 0.4% 0.6% 0.4% 0.3%
New Vehicle Sales 15.4% -6.7%                    
  – 2011 3.2% -0.6% 2.0% -1.1% -6.1% 10.8% -6.2% -0.4% 1.5% 3.3% -1.0% -3.0%
Manufacturing Sales -1.3% -0.3%                    
  – 2011 4.4% -1.8% 1.9% -1.3% -0.7% -1.3% 3.0% 1.4% 2.6% -0.6% 1.9% 0.6%
Wholesale Sales -1.1% 1.6%                    
  – 2011 1.6% -0.9% 0.3% -0.1% 2.0% 0.0% 0.9% 0.3% 0.5% 0.9% -0.3% 1.0%
Operating Profits q/q (2011) 4.2%     -4.9%     -0.5%     9.0%    
Employment and Confidence
Released for: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Employment Change 2.3K -2.8K 82.3K 58.2K                
  – 2011 69.2K 15.1K -1.5K 58.3K 22.3K 28.4K 7.1K -5.5K 60.9K -54.0K -18.6K 17.5K
Unempl. Rate 7.6% 7.4% 7.2% 7.3%                
  – 2011 7.8% 7.8% 7.7% 7.6% 7.4% 7.4% 7.2% 7.3% 7.1% 7.3% 7.4% 7.5%
Labor Prod. (2011) 0.3%     0.4%     0.6%     0.7%    
Trade and Current Account
Released for: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Trade Balance 1.9B 0.3B 0.4B                  
  – 2011 0.4B 0.4B -0.4B -0.9B -1.0B -1.4B -0.5B -0.5B 1.0B -0.5B 1.2B 2.9B
Current Acct. (2011) -10.1B     -15.3B     -12.3B     -10.3    
Foreigners Securities Purchases -4.28B 12.50B                    
  – 2011 13.37B 2.47B 6.44B 8.52B 15.34B -3.45B 12.13B 8.22B 7.35B 3.85B 14.64B 8.17B
Inflation
Released for: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
BOC Rate 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0%   1.0%    
CPI m/m 0.4% 0.4% 0.4%                  
  – 2011 0.3% 0.3% 1.1% 0.3% 0.7% -0.7% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% -0.6%
Core CPI m/m 0.2% 0.4% 0.3%                  
  – 2011 0.0% 0.2% 0.7% 0.2% 0.5% -0.6% 0.2% 0.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% -0.5%
PPI m/m 0.4% 0.3% 0.2%                  
  – 2011 0.4% 0.9% 1.0% 0.5% -0.3% -0.2% -0.4% 0.4% 0.4% -0.1% 0.3% -0.9%
Raw Materials Price Index (RMPI) 0.2% -0.6% -1.6%                  
  – 2011 0.4% 2.1% 5.8% 6.9% -5.3% -2.4% -1.1% -3.2% 1.4% -1.0% 3.8% -2.5%
Housing
Housing Starts 198K 205K 215K 245K                
  – 2011 171K 184K 185K 179K 194K 201K 205K 192K 209K 209K 186K 200K
Building Permits -11.4% 7.6% 4.7%                  
  – 2011 -6.6% 9.8% 16.8% -21.5% 20.9% 2.8% -0.4% -10.4% -4.1% 11.6% -2.6% 10.5%
New Housing Price Index 0.1% 0.3% 0.3%                  
  – 2011 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
 

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