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Growth and Sector Activity
Released for: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
  Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
GDP q/q -0.2% (P)                      
   – 2011 0.5% (P) 0.5% (R) 0.5% (F) 0.2% (P) 0.2% (R) 0.1% (F) 0.5% (P) 0.6% (R) 0.6% (F) -0.2% (P) -0.2% (R) -0.3% (F)
NIESR GDP Est. -0.2% 0.0% 0.1%                  
   – 2011 -0.2% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.6% 0.4% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% -0.2%
Manufacturing PMI 52.0 51.5 51.9 50.5                
   – 2011 61.5 60.9 56.7 54.4 52.0 51.4 49.4 49.4 50.8 47.8 47.7 49.7
Services PMI 56.0 53.8 55.3 53.3                
   – 2011 54.5 52.6 57.1 54.3 53.8 53.9 55.4 51.1 52.9 51.3 52.1 54.0
Construction PMI 51.4 54.3 56.7 55.8                
   – 2011 53.3 56.5 56.4 53.3 54.0 53.6 53.5 52.6 50.1 53.9 52.3 53.2
Index of Services 3m/3m 0.2% 0.2%                    
   – 2011 -0.6% -0.4% 0.9% 0.9% 1.2% 0.2% 0.8% 0.6% 0.7% 0.2% 0.2% -0.1%
Industrial Production m/m -0.6% 0.4%                    
   – 2011 0.3%% -1.2% 0.2% -1.7% 0.8% 0.0% -0.4% 0.3% 0.0% -1.0% -0.5% 0.4%
Manufacturing. Production m/m -0.3% -1.0%                    
   – 2011 0.9% 0.0% 0.2% -1.6% 1.8% -0.4% -0.2% -0.3% 0.1% -0.9% -0.1% 1.1%
Business Investment q/q -3.2%     11.6%                
Demand
Released for: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Retail Sales 0.3% -0.8% 1.8%                  
   – 2011 1.5% -0.9% 0.3% 1.1% -1.3% 0.8% 0.2% -0.2% 0.5% 1.0% -0.5% 0.6%
BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y 2.3% -0.4% -3.5% 5.2% -2.1% -0.6% 0.6% -0.6% 0.3%      
CBI Industrial Orders -16 -3 -8 -8                
   – 2011 -8 5 -11 -2 1 1 -10 1 -9 -18 -19 -23
CBI Retail Sales Survey -22 -2 0 -6                
   – 2011 37 6 15 21 18 -2 -5 -14 -15 -11 -19 9
Net Consumer Lending 1.8B 1.3B 1.4B                  
   – 2011 1.2B 1.7B 1.1B 1.6B 1.4B 0.4B 1.0B 1.0B 1.1B 1.3B 1.0B 0.9B
Employment and Confidence
Released for: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Claimant Count 7.0K 4.5K 3.6K                  
   – 2011 1.5K -8.5K 6.4K 16.9K 22.5K 31.3K 33.7K 19.1K 13.4K 2.5K 0.2K 1.9K
Unemployment Rate 8.4% 8.3%                    
   – 2011 8.0% 7.8% 7.7% 7.7% 7.7%% 7.9% 7.9% 8.1% 8.3% 8.3% 8.4% 8.4%
Consumer Confid. (Nationwide) 47 44 53                  
   – 2011 48 39 45 44 55 51 49 48 45 36 40 38
Consumer Confidence (GfK) -29 -29 -31 -31                
   – 2011 -29 -28 -28 -31 -21 -25 -30 -31 -30 -32 -31 -33
Trade and Current Account
Released for: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Trade Balance -7.9B -8.8B                    
   – 2011 -7.8B -7.0B -7.7B -7.6B -8.5B -8.9B -8.2B -8.6B -10.2B -7.9B -8.9B -7.2B
Current Acctount (2011) -4.1B     -7.4B     -10.5B     -8.5B    
Public Sector Net Borrowing -10.2B 9.9B 15.9B                  
   – 2011 -6.3B 7.9B 15.6B 7.7B 14.6B 12.4B -5.2B 10.9B 10.2B 3.0B 15.1B 11.1B
Inflation
Released for: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
BOE Interest Rate 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50%   5/10              
Consumer Prices y/y 3.6% 3.4% 3.5%                  
   – 2011 4.0% 4.4% 4.0% 4.5% 4.5% 4.2% 4.4% 4.5% 5.2% 5.0% 4.8% 4.2%
PPI Output m/m 0.4% 0.6% 0.6%                  
   – 2011 1.1% 0.5% 1.1% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% -0.2%
PPI Input m/m 0.1% 2.5% 1.9%                  
   – 2011 2.3% 1.4% 3.8% 2.8% -1.7% 0.2% 0.5% -1.8% 1.8% -0.8% 0.3% -0.6%
M4 Money Supply y/y 1.5% -1.9% -0.8%                  
   – 2011 0.8% -0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% -0.4% 0.0% -0.4% -0.4% -0.3% -0.5% -1.4%
BRC Shop Price Index y/y 2.5% 2.7% 2.4% 2.5% 2.3% 2.9% 2.8% 2.7% 2.7%      
Avg. Hourly Earnings 3m/y 1.3% 1.1%                    
   – 2011 2.3% 2.1% 2.4% 2.0% 2.3% 2.7% 2.9% 2.7% 2.3% 2.1% 2.0% 1.9%
Housing
Released for: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Mortgage Approvals (BBA) 38.0K 32.8K 31.9K                  
   – 2011 29.2K 30.2K 31.2K 29.7K 30.8K 32.1K 33.7K 35.1K 33.5K 35.2K 34.8K 36.6K
Mortgage Approvals (BOE) 58K 49K 50K                  
   – 2011 46K 47K 47K 45K 46K 49K 50K 52K 51K 53K 53K 55K
Rightmove HPI m/m -0.8% 4.1% 1.6% 2.9%                
   – 2011 0.3% 3.1% 0.8% 1.7% 1.3% 0.6% -1.6% -2.1% 0.7% 2.8% -3.1% -2.7%
Nationwide HPI -0.3% 0.4% -1.0% -0.2%                
   – 2011 -0.1% 0.7% 0.5% -0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% -0.6% 0.1% 0.4% 0.4% -0.2%
DCLG HPI 0.5% 0.5% 0.9% -0.3% -2.2% -2.0% -1.5% -1.3% -1.3%      
Halifax HPI 0.6% -0.4% 2.2% -2.4%                
    – 2011 0.6% -0.9% 0.0% -1.4% 0.4% 1.5% 0.2% -1.1% -0.3% 1.2% -1.0% -1.0%
Housing Equity Withdrawal q/q (2011) -8.9B     -9.6B     -8.5B     -8.5B    
 

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