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Data-Heavy Week Could Drive Dollar Consolidation

Last week’s selloff of the US dollar reduced short-selling of key crosses such as the EURUSD and GBPUSD, as the markets increased their appetite for riskier assets such as equities and commodities. While it may no longer be rational to expect another record run-up of the US dollar, it could benefit from a broad consolidation should the economic indicators point to favourable growth.

Below is a look at the major market moving events for the dollar this week.


The National Association of Realtors (NAR) will release existing home sales for February. Existing home sales are forecast to have increased 1.8 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.9 million. Sales had plunged 4.9 percent in January.


The Commerce Department will report on the consumer price index (CPI). February CPI is forecast to drop 0.1 percent annually, following an identical decrease in January. Core CPI is forecast to rise 1.6 percent annually.

Separately, Markit will release its flash manufacturing PMI for March. The manufacturing industry is forecast to remain relatively unchanged from the previous month.


The Commerce Department will report on February durable goods orders. Orders for manufactured goods meant to last three years or more is forecast to rise 0.2 percent. Excluding transportation, durable goods orders are expected to advance 0.4 percent.


Markit will release flash services PMI. The US service economy is forecast to grow at a strong rate in March, keeping pace with February’s gains.


The Commerce Department will release revised fourth quarter GDP data. The economy expanded just 2.2 percent annually in the final three months of 2014, less than half the rate of the third quarter. Economists forecast a downward revision to Q4 GDP, stemming from slower inventory buildup and weaker consumer spending.

Separately, Reuters/University of Michigan will post their final estimate of the consumer sentiment index. Consumer sentiment eased slightly in March, falling to 92.0 from 95.4.

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