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EURUSD Retreats Further on Grexit Fears

Technical Bias: Slightly Bearish


  • EURUSD retreats for second straight day, touching intraday low of 1.1152.
  • Eurozone industrial production rises less than forecast in April.
  • Fears of Grexit make headlines as IMF walks out of Greek bailout talks on Friday.
  • EU discusses for the first time the possibility of a Greek default.

The EURUSD declined for a second consecutive day on Friday, slipping below 1.1200 in intraday trade as talks between Greece and its creditors broke down again, raising fears that Athens would not be able to secure a new bailout agreement before June 30.

The EURUSD was trading at 1.1220 in the early New York session, down 0.2 percent. The pair bottomed out at 1.1152 in the London session after retreating from the 1.1300 handle on Thursday. Price action is trending below the SMA100, where the EURUSD faces a neutral bias. Initial support is likely found at 1.1182, the low from Thursday. On the upside, immediate resistance is likely found at 1.1280, followed by 1.1334.


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Eurozone Industrial Production Rebounds

Eurozone industrial production rose less than forecast in April, a sign fragile euro has yet to provide a lift to the region’s export sector. Total industrial output at factories, mines and utilities rose just 0.1 percent, after declining 0.4 percent the previous month. In annualized terms, industrial production was up 0.8 percent, official data showed. Economists forecast an annual increase of 1.1 percent.

Grexit Fears Escalate

The European Union is preparing for the worst after talks between Greece and international creditors failed to achieve any breakthroughs. After months of brinkmanship, the International Monetary Fund dramatically walked out of negotiations on Friday. European Council President Donald Tusk has warned Greece that “there is no time for gambling.”

Athens must pay €1.6 billion to its creditors by June 30 or risks a technical default. Athens bypassed last week’s €310 million payment to the IMF, opting instead to package all of its June payments into one payment at the end of the month.

The EU is reportedly discussing the possibility of a Greek default for the first time, according to Reuters. EU officials are skeptical that a cash-for-reform agreement could be reached at next week’s Eurogroup meetings, leaving only two possibilities: extending Greece’s bailout program for a second time or finally accepting the possibility of default.

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