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EURUSD Weekly Outlook (June 1 – 5)

The EURUSD fell below a key support line last week before rallying to retake the 1.10 level on Friday. The pair closed above 1.10 last week, but faces a bearish bias as Greece and international creditors continue to negotiate a new bailout agreement just days before Athens must make a €310 million payment to the International Monetary Fund.

Below is a rundown of this week’s key market-moving events for the EURUSD.


Germany will release its preliminary estimate of May consumer inflation. The consumer price index of goods and services is forecast to rise 0.7 percent annually, up from 0.5 percent in March. The harmonized index of consumer prices, which more closely aligns with the standard adopted by the European Union, is forecast to be zero after declining 0.1 percent in March.

In the United States, the Commerce Department will report on personal income and outlays. Personal incomes from all sources is forecast to rise 0.3 percent in April, while personal spending is expected to increase 0.2 percent.

Separately, the Institute for Supply Management will release May manufacturing PMI. The monthly reading is forecast to improve to 52.0 from 51.5 in April.


Germany will report on national unemployment. The unemployment count is forecast to drop by 10,000 in May. The unemployment rate is forecast to hold steady at 6.4 percent.

Separately, the European Commission is expected to show further improvement in Eurozone inflation. The Eurozone CPI rate is forecast to climb 0.2 percent in the 12 months through April after registering zero growth the previous month. Core inflation is forecast to increase to 0.7 percent from 0.6 percent.

In the US, the Commerce Department will report on April factory orders, a measure of durable and nondurable goods sales. Factory orders are expected to remain flat in April after rising 2.1 percent the previous month.


The European Commission will report on April retail sales and May unemployment. Both figures are expected to improve.

The European Central Bank will also issue a policy statement in the middle of the week. Officials are likely to vote in favour of maintaining the status quo, given the broad improvements seen in the Eurozone economy since the implementation of quantitative easing earlier this year.

Payrolls processor ADP will release its estimate of US private payrolls growth. The US private sector is forecast to have added 200,000 jobs in May following a disappointing 169,000 the previous month.

ISM wraps up a highly active day with the release of May non-manufacturing PMI. The monthly indicator is forecast to register 57.0, compared to 57.8 in April.


The European Commission will publicize its second estimate of first quarter GDP growth for the euro area on Friday. The initial estimates showed GDP in the 19-member Eurozone rose 0.4 percent quarter-on-quarter and 1 percent annually.

The Labor Department will close out the week with its monthly nonfarm payrolls report, the most closely followed indicator of the US labour market. Economists forecast the creation of 220,000 nonfarm payrolls in May, following an increase of 223,000 the previous month. The unemployment rate is forecast to hold steady at 5.4 percent.

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