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Forex – EURUSD Weekly Outlook (May 4 – 8)

The EURUSD climbed to fresh two-month highs on Friday, advancing more than 300 pips on the week as the dollar continued to backtrack on waning economic sentiment.

The EURUSD settled at 1.198 on Friday after opening the week at 1.0876. Despite the rally, the EURUSD could face renewed selling pressure this week after talks between Greece and the European Union stalled on Sunday over “red lines.”


Sentix will release its monthly survey on Eurozone investor confidence. The Eurozone investor confidence index climbed to the highest level in nearly seven-and-a-half years in April amid signs the regional economy was finally gaining momentum. Investor confidence in May is expected to remain elevated, despite growing concerns that Greece may be forced out of the Eurozone.

In the United States, the Commerce Department will report on March factory orders. Last month government data showed durable goods orders rebounded in March, a sign manufacturing headwinds were slowly abating. Durable goods orders rose 4 percent in March, but a separate category for business investment plans dropped for a seventh straight month.


The European Commission will release its latest forecasts for economic growth. The EC raised its outlook in the winter edition, which was released back in February, but said downside risks could stall the recovery.  For the first time since 2007, all European Union member-states were expected to grow this year. The EC is expected to raise France’s GDP forecast on Tuesday, but will probably revise down Greece’s outlook.

Separately, the Institute for Supply Management will report on US non-manufacturing PMI for April. ISM’s non-manufacturing PMI slipped to 56.4 in March, in line with forecasts.


The ADP Institute will provide an advance estimate of US private payrolls growth for April. ADP reported a broad cool down in job creation in March, which was confirmed by the Labor Department.


The Bundesbank will release German factory orders in the latter half of the week. Factory orders in Europe’s largest economy declined for a second consecutive month in February, falling 0.9 percent. Factory orders were down 1.3 percent from a year earlier.


Germany will release March industrial production figures at the end of the week. Industrial production declined 0.3 percent annually in March, the National Statistics Office reported last month.

Separately, the Labor Department reports on US April nonfarm payrolls. The US economy added just 126,000 nonfarm payrolls in March, the slowest rate of hiring since December 2013. Job creation is expected to rebound from the weather-induced slowdown, with employers adding more than 200,000 jobs, according to forecast. The unemployment rate is forecast to edge down to 5.4 percent from 5.5 percent.

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