Triangle breakout: EUR/USD price action during the 6/18 broke above an ascending triangle seen in the 1H chart as well as break above the 1.34 handle. However, ahead of the FOMC meeting, it is holding around the 1.34 handle, with support at 1.3383 and resistance at 1.3414. Despite the bullish break, the RSI is still held mostly between 40 and 60, showing lack of bullish momentum on the breakout…

So far there have been no surprises – consolidation is the name of the game this morning before ‘helicopter’ Ben gets to his press conference. The G10 major currencies have essentially traded sideways ahead of today’s FOMC economic projections, statement and rate announcements. However, for the EUR it has been a far different story up until this point. It seems that the single-currency bulls have become somewhat immune to negative EUR factors, allowing the currency to bid right up until…

US market traded higher on Monday with Dow Jones Industrial index clocking in another triple-digit gain (+0.73%). Underlining the strong bullish undertone in DJI after the brief foray below 15,000 last week. This increase is not limited to DJI only, with S&P 500 coming in with a slightly more impressive 0.76% gain. Analysts believe that the gain was spurred by speculators believing Wed’s FOMC meeting outcome will be a dovish one – which would mean continued QE3 purchases for the…

Key Fundamental Forex Events and Forecasts for the Coming Week

The following table lists the key economic data and other events that are due out during the week of June 17th – June 21st, with release times displayed for the GMT time zone.

The list also includes the current market consensus forecast for each event and indicates what sort of deviation might affect the forex market valuation of the indicated currency positively.

Monday, June 17th

• Day 1 ALL G8 Meetings (hawkish = good for currency)

Tuesday, June 18th

• 2:30am AUD Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (hawkish = good for currency)
• 9:30am GBP CPI (2.6% expected, > good for currency)
• 10:00am EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment (38.2 expected, > good for currency)
• GBP Inflation Report Hearings (hawkish = good for currency)
• Tentative GBP BOE Inflation Letter (hawkish = good for currency)
• 1:30pm USD Building Permits (0.98M expected, > good for currency)
• 1:30pm USD Core CPI (0.2% expected, > good for currency)
• Day 2 ALL G8 Meetings (hawkish = good for currency)

Wednesday, June 19th

• 9:30am GBP MPC Meeting Minutes (vote: 0-0-9 expected, > good for currency)
• 5:40pm CAD BOC Governor Poloz Speaks (hawkish = good for currency)
• 7:00pm USD FOMC Economic Projections (hawkish = good for currency)
• 7:00pm USD FOMC Statement (hawkish = good for currency)
• 7:30pm USD FOMC Press Conference (hawkish = good for currency)
• 11:45pm NZD GDP (0.6% expected, > good for currency)

Thursday, June 20th

• 2:45am CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI (49.4 expected, > good for currency)
• 8:00am EUR French Flash Manufacturing PMI (47.1 expected, > good for currency)
• 8:30am CHF Libor Rate (unchanged at <0.25% expected, > good for currency)
• 8:30am CHF SNB Monetary Policy Assessment (hawkish = good for currency)
• 8:30am CHF SNB Press Conference (hawkish = good for currency)
• EUR German Flash Manufacturing PMI (49.9 expected, > good for currency)
• 9:30am GBP Retail Sales (0.8% expected, > good for currency)
• All Day EUR Eurogroup Meetings (hawkish = good for currency)
• 1:30pm USD Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (345K expected, < good for currency)
• 3:00pm USD Existing Home Sales (5.01M expected, > good for currency)
• USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index (-0.4 expected, > good for currency)

Friday, June 21st

• 7:35am JPY BOJ Governor Kuroda Speaks (hawkish = good for currency)
• 1:30pm CAD Core CPI (0.3% expected, > good for currency)
• 1:30pm CAD Core Retail Sales (0.0% expected, > good for currency)

Technical Forecast and Levels to Watch for the Majors This Week

EURUSD: Lower

Resistance:

Initial: 1.3353, 1.3376/89, 1.3398/1.3403, 1.3433/34 and 1.3478/95.

Above: 1.3519, 1.3544/46, 1.3568, 1.3597, 1.3614, 1.3710, 1.3795/98, 1.3836, 1.3969, 1.4000, 1.4246, 1.4500/17, 1.4695 and 1.4939.

Support:

Initial: 1.3318/21, 1.3305/08, 1.3242/99, 1.3224, 1.3194/1.3201, 1.3177, 1.3126/61, 1.3093/1.3106, 1.3059/61, 1.3000/47, 1.2904/97, 1.2837/79, 1.2821, 1.2795/1.2801, 1.2744/54, 1.2623/92, 1.2588/89, 1.2501/19, 1.2407/96, 1.2381/91, 1.2323/33 and 1.2241/55.

Below: 1.2162, 1.2143, 1.2133, 1.2041 and 1.1938.

USDJPY: Higher

Resistance:

Initial: 0.9419, 94.55, 94.87, 94.90/95.07, 95.44, 95.79, 96.05, 96.55, 96.65/70, 97.00, 97.55, 97.79/83, 98.08, 98.48, 98.87, 99.26/94, 100.00, 100.22, 100.65, 101.25, 101.43, 102.50/52, 102.76, 103.30 and 130.73.

Above: 107.18, 108.42 and 110.47.

Support:

Initial: 94.0593.76, 93.78 93.68, 93.50, 93.17, 92.77/95, 92.14/30, 91.19, 90.85 and 90.20/32.

Below: 89.40/66, 88.05, 87.95/99 and 87.79.

GBPUSD: Lower

Resistance:

Initial: 1.5714, 1.5781, 1.5803/07, 1.5825, 1.5844, 1.5874/77 and 1.5886/90.

Above: 1.5900/27, 1.5961, 1.5975/91, 1.6001/08, 1.6051/66, 1.6077, 1.6083/96, 1.6109/16, 1.6130/51, 1.6151/54 and 1.6177/98.

Support:

Initial: 1.5683/92, 1.5673, 1.5624/50, 1.5615, 1.5601/06, 1.5591, 1.5568, 1.5545, 1.5514/16, 1.5498/99, 1.5479, 1.5458, 1.5403/18, 1.5313/92, 1.5260/93, 1.5237/39, 1.5208/23, 1.5198, 1.5173/87, 1.5152/57, 1.5130, 1.5123, 1.5092, 1.5081, 1.5072, 1.5026/32 and 1.5013.

Below: 1.5007, 1.4985, 1.4966/67, 1.4884, 1.4872, 1.4830, 1.4785, 1.4345 and 1.4232.

AUDUSD: Lower

Resistance:

Initial: 0.9585, 0.9592, 0.9620, 0.9664, 0.9689/96, 0.9710, 0.9732, 0.9791/94, 0.9841/96, 0.9900, 0.9925/83, 1.0000/18, 1.0052, 1.0099/1.0100, 1.0114/17, 1.0148/51, 1.0165/77, 1.0181/82, 1.0201, 1.0220/26, 1.0255/66,1.0280/92,1.0300/03, 1.0319/47, 1.0357, 1.0384/85, 1.0392/96, 1.0354/74, 1.0402/40, 1.0457/98, 1.0508/28 and 1.0561/66.

Above: 1.0572/84, 1.0596/1.0638, 1.0654, 1.0668/86, 1.0751/53, 1.0792/98, 1.0842/54, 1.1010, 1.1064 and 1.1079.

Support:

Initial: 0.9536/41, 0.9527, 0.9500, 0.9486, 0.9428/33, 0.9404, 0.9392/98 and 0.9383/86.

Below: 0.9325, 0.9220, 0.8770 and 0.8066.

USDCAD: Mildly Higher

Resistance:

Initial: 1.0172, 1.0178/82, 1.0199/1.0226, 1.0233/35, 1.0245/50, 1.0255, 1.0262, 1.0283/85, 1.0293/94, 1.0302/1.0312, 1.0334/53, 1.0379, 1.0392, 1.0415/81, 1.0500, 1.0506 and 1.0522.

Above: 1.0646/56, 1.0669 and 1.0742/85.

Support:

Initial: 1.0165, 1.0151/56, 1.0148, 1.0128/42, 1.0103/05, 1.0081/99, 1.0050/56, 1.0029/34, 1.0018, 1.0012, 0.9993/98, 0.9984, 0.9969, 0.9945/60, 0.9931, 0.9922, 0.9902/07, 0.9899, 0.9858, 0.9814/26 and 0.9724/99.

Below: 0.9686, 0.9645, 0.9631, 0.9525, 0.9445 and 0.9405.

NZDUSD: Lower

Resistance:

Initial: 0.8052, 0.8078, 0.8100, 0.8109, 0.8116/53, 0.8160/69, 0.8172/95, 0.8204/14, 0.8221/24, 0.8237/95, 0.8312/16, 0.8322/50, 0.8359/65, 0.8376/0.8406, 0.8425/47, 0.8453/59, 0.8472/79 and 0.8487/89.

Above: 0.8504/08, 0.8532, 0.8561, 0.8571, 0.8584, 0.8605, 0.8641, 0.8671/74, 0.8764 and 0.8840.

Support:

Initial: 0.8030, 0.7996/0.8013, 0.7906/66, 0.7888, 0.7856, 0.7819, 0.7804, 0.7783/95 and 0.7723.

Below: 0.7605/76 and 0.7500/85.

Asset class prices continue to fluctuate, mostly on the market’s expectation of Fed tapering through QE easing later this year. The degree of ‘swaying volatility’ has already tapered somewhat, on the back of last week’s major positioning. Mind you, there are always a few last minute requirements that unnerve the weaker of market positions. This week’s highlights are primarily Fed related, including the FOMC statement, FOMC forecasts, and the chairman’s press conference.
The Fed’s communication skills had better be…

Triangle breakout: EUR/USD price action during the 6/18 broke above an ascending triangle seen in the 1H chart as well as break above the 1.34 handle. However, ahead of the FOMC meeting, it is holding around the 1.34 handle, with support at 1.3383 and resistance at 1.3414. Despite the bullish break, the RSI is still held mostly between 40 and 60, showing lack of bullish momentum on the breakout…

So far there have been no surprises – consolidation is the name of the game this morning before ‘helicopter’ Ben gets to his press conference. The G10 major currencies have essentially traded sideways ahead of today’s FOMC economic projections, statement and rate announcements. However, for the EUR it has been a far different story up until this point. It seems that the single-currency bulls have become somewhat immune to negative EUR factors, allowing the currency to bid right up until…

US market traded higher on Monday with Dow Jones Industrial index clocking in another triple-digit gain (+0.73%). Underlining the strong bullish undertone in DJI after the brief foray below 15,000 last week. This increase is not limited to DJI only, with S&P 500 coming in with a slightly more impressive 0.76% gain. Analysts believe that the gain was spurred by speculators believing Wed’s FOMC meeting outcome will be a dovish one – which would mean continued QE3 purchases for the…

Asset class prices continue to fluctuate, mostly on the market’s expectation of Fed tapering through QE easing later this year. The degree of ‘swaying volatility’ has already tapered somewhat, on the back of last week’s major positioning. Mind you, there are always a few last minute requirements that unnerve the weaker of market positions. This week’s highlights are primarily Fed related, including the FOMC statement, FOMC forecasts, and the chairman’s press conference.
The Fed’s communication skills had better be…

The housing market simply isn’t improving at the rate many in the mainstream media are telling us. house_sandtimeHome prices are still significantly lower than what they were during 2005 and 2006. On its own, there is no housing market recovery. All we are witnessing is the mere reflection of easy money provided by our central bank…

Asset class prices continue to fluctuate, mostly on the market’s expectation of Fed tapering through QE easing later this year. The degree of ‘swaying volatility’ has already tapered somewhat, on the back of last week’s major positioning. Mind you, there are always a few last minute requirements that unnerve the weaker of market positions. This week’s highlights are primarily Fed related, including the FOMC statement, FOMC forecasts, and the chairman’s press conference.
The Fed’s communication skills had better be…

The bulls and bears have all got a whipping of similar magnitude in a brutal week for asset price movement. A week where both the shorts and longs have at one time managed to be squeezed, ending the jobbing opportunities of a few unnerved speculators as many try to second guess the Fed’s next move. So far, the accumulating price action is ending the week with global bourses on a firmer footing, and a dollar looking for air, as the…

There is little time to waste if you want to stay within catching distance of these markets. Originally lacking direction from Wall Street, the Nikkei traded around its 13,517 close from yesterday until the BoJ announcement of unchanged policy, after which it dropped -1% – the Tokyo bourse is back to its old tricks of a percentage gain one session followed by deep heavy losses. Similarly, USD/JPY managed to drop from loftier heights (98.75 to 97.79) before bouncing back to…

The European Central Bank left its benchmark interest rate at 0.50%. After cutting it during the last meeting, the ECB wants to wait for further economic data before making any changes. ECB president, Mario Draghi will be in a press conference starting 8:30AM EDT, 12:30GMT. The market will break down his answers to questions from the press in order to gauge how dovish the ECB is…

Consolidation range; US GDP: In the last 2 weeks, EUR/USD fell to about 1.28 but consolidated, coming back near 1.30. This sets up the outer bound of EUR/USD’s recent price structure. The market appears to be stalling after a couple of bearish swings in May. I think if there is going to be fuel to break out of this, the US preliminary GDP for Q1 could be it…

London, 14 March 2013 – Aggressive quantitative easing programmes from the US and Japan are creating a dilemma for the Chinese leadership, which may only be resolved by revaluing the China Yuan upwards versus the US Dollar. Inflation and unemployment are two major preoccupations for the Chinese leadership as a nasty bout of either can create social instability…

BoJ Statement

The RBA interest rate meeting concluded with a hold of the OCR at 3.00%. Here is the statement: http://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2013/mr-13-04.html. The AUD/USD continues a sharp rebound after breaking below a key support at 1.0150. The break is not clear, and could be a false breakout. A break above 1.0250 could be an initial sign of a bullish correction. However, a rally back above 1.03 is likely needed to break away from the bearish structure seen in the 4H chart…

USD/JPY gaped higher to hit 94.65 at the start of Asian trade on the speculation that Prime Minister Abe will nominate the ultra dovish Haruhiko Kuroda to the post of BOJ Governor, but the rally quickly fizzled with the pair dropping below the 94.00 level as there was no official confirmation from the government and…

BoJ: The Bank of Japan held its benchmark interest rate at near 0, as the economic outlook remains subdued with uncertainty in foreign factors as well. There was no additional stimulus coming out of this meeting, but the use of such action is clearly on the table if the economic conditions continues to weaken. “…it (BoJ) will pursue aggressive monetary easing in a continuous manner by conducting its virtually zero interest rate policy as well as steadily increasing the amount outstanding of the Asset Purchase Program.”…

Q2 GDP in Australia was reported to have grown 0.6%. This is below the 1.4% in Q1, and also missed forecast of 0.8% reading. This is the type of growth data that will continue fueling expectation of an RBA rate cut later this year. The AUD/USD continued its decline. The 1H chart shows the AUD/USD in a persistent bearish momentum as the RSI tags 30, holds below 60, and continues to tag 30. The moving averages…