· An erratic tone still this week to underscore the shift to a neutral non-trend theme, but a resilient midweek tone maintains a slightly constructive consolidation tone into Thursday.
· We see risk back up to the modest 1.3645/50 range resistance area.
· However, we would see a better barrier at 1.3740/50 capping into early Dec, whilst the chart support at 1.3400 should offer firm support and mark the lower end of our range environment.
WHAT CHANGES THIS?
· Upside: Above 1.3750 re-energizes bull risk through 1.3830/35 for 1.4000.
· Downside: Below 1.3400 re-energizes bear pressures through 1.3295 for 1.3165/05 retrace/ chart targets.
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· A still more robust advance to start the month and a far more bullish statement, with the Tuesday push through a key 2011 spike high at 1.0657.
· The break here has completed a multi-year base and already nudged at some further important target peaks from 2010 at 106.72/76.
· The 8-day RSI is positive, OB, but has been more stretched this year, leaving scope to go still higher this week.
· Bull challenges: This now sees year-end upside risk to the key retrace/ chart area at 1.0805/54.
· 1.0805 is the 38.2% retrace of the entire 2009-11 sell off, whilst 108.54 is a key failure peak from 2010.
· Downside risks: Below 1.0520 eases bull risks to neutral, shifting negative below 1.0395.
Please see latest audio-visual analysis here: http:/members.marketchartist.com/Daily/USDCAD.pdf
Prior -0.4% 0.1% vs 0.1% exp q/q. Prior 0.1% No surprises in growth being revised up and it confirms the slowing rate. The European union numbers aren’t much better with Q3 q/q GDP at 0.2% from 0.4% in Q2, 0.1 … Continue reading →
Prior 62.5 Employment 54.2 vs 56.2 in Oct Composite 60.5 vs 61.6 prior Services levels out somewhat and who’d have thunk it with cable falling into the figure New business continues to accelerate and although the headline didn’t beat expectations … Continue reading →
50.9 flash vs 51.6 oct vs 51.9 oct comp PMI 51.7 vs 51.5 flash Euro supported still by the better than expected data