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Fundamental Updates

Non-farm payrolls dropped by a seasonally adjusted 11K in November, the fewest since December 2007. The figure was much better than expected, and for the months of September and October the number of job losses was revised lower by a total of 159K. Service producing industries added 58K, the second straight month of increases, while goods-producing services lost 69K jobs (27K in construction and 41K in manufacturing). Temp hiring was up (+54K), and a larger percentage of industries were hiring. The unemployment rate meanwhile fell down to 10%. If you include discouraged workers and those forced to work part-time, the rate fell to 17.2% from 17.5%, though despite the decline remains at a very elevated level.

The reaction in the markets was swift as the Yen fell weaker to  greenback and others, while the Dollar in the immediate aftermath of the release rose against the Euro. The reason for the move higher in the greenback is if the employment situation is improving than the Fed will have to begin considering easing its loose monetary policy and even begin thinking about raising interest rates.

Provided by: Bureau of Labor Statistics

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  1. JLamont
    JLamont
    Rating +3
    Commented: December 4th, 2009
    I have a question - We lost 11,000 jobs, which is less than expected, but still a net loss of jobs. So how does the unemployment rate go down? Shouldn't it go up by less?
  2. Nick Nasad
    nnasad
    Rating +3
    Commented: December 4th, 2009
    JLamont, great question. There are two surveys that the government conducts to get its measures for employment. One is the Current Population Survey (CPS) which is based on a sample of 60,000 households. The other is the Current Employment Statistics survey (CES) or the "payroll" survey which looks at 160,000 businesses and government agencies. The first is used for the unemployment rate while the second is used for the jobs figure. So since the surveys use different methodologies there can be differences between the two figures that seem odd, as in the unemployment rate going down when jobs are lost. Another important point to consider is that sometimes the labor force shrinks, that less people are looking for jobs, say an increase in disgruntled workers who have decided to stop sending out resumes. When the participation rate goes down, you can have a drop in the unemployment rate as well. For this month's figure we saw a big revision to the past two month's in which the amount of jobs lost was fewer than expected, so those revisions can have an effect as well.
  3. Nick Nasad
    nnasad
    Rating 0
    Commented: December 4th, 2009
    JLamont, here is a similar but more in-depth explantion, http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/12/if-economy-lost-jobs-why-did.html
  4. JLamont
    JLamont
    Rating 0
    Commented: December 21st, 2009
    Makes sense. Thanks for the info.

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