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NZDUSD – The Big Picture

Key Points

  • New Zealand Dollar may be forming a short-term bottom against the US dollar looking at the daily chart.
  • There is a bullish trend line formed on the daily chart, which may act as a catalyst for the upside move.
  • The NZDUSD pair may climb towards the 100-day simple moving average in the long term.
  • New Zealand NZIER Business Confidence released by the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research posted an increase of 15% in Q4 2015, more the forecast.

Technical Analysis

The NZDUSD dived down sharply until it found support near a bullish trend line formed on the daily chart. The highlighted trend line is holding losses and preventing losses in the near term.

NZDUSD chart

There is a chance that the pair may continue trading higher and test the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last drop from the 0.6883 high to 0.6374 low.

On the downside, the trend line and support area holds the key.

New Zealand NZIER Business Confidence

Today, the New Zealand NZIER Business Confidence, which shows the business outlook in New Zealand, and also allows analysis of economic situation in the short term was released by the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research. The result was very positive, as there was a rise of 15% in Q4 2015. It was a lot higher when compared with the last decrease of 14%.

The report stated that “latest NZIER Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion shows business confidence rebounded in the final quarter of 2015. Following the sharp drop in confidence in the previous quarter which saw pessimists outnumber optimists, a net 13 percent of businesses now expect the New Zealand economy will strengthen over the coming months”.

Overall, as long as the highlighted support trend line holds on the daily chart we can look for more upsides in NZDUSD.

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