Broken wedge: USD/CAD has broken above a falling wedge as seen in the 1H chart. This breakout opens up the 1.0285 high, where the falling wedge started. Note the break above the 200-hour SMA. The RSI also tagged 70 showing new bullish momentum in this time-frame. Rising channel: The USD/CAD is exiting the wedge anchored to a rising channel…
Consolidation: The USD/JPY is finding itself in a consolidation range between 95.80 and 93.75. The RSI in the 4H chart is around 50, reflecting a neutral momentum, but with bearish bias since it has just tagged 30 and below twice. FOMC: If the Bernanke and the FOMC provides new clues for tapering, the market is likely to react with USD-strength…
Bullish maintenance: The S&P500 has retreated from a record high at 1687.4 to find support at a previous resistance near 1598.5. So far in June, it has traded sideways, holding the RSI above 40, and therefore still maintaining overall bullish momentum in the daily chart. The moving averages are still for most part in bullish alignment. Price has held above a key rising trendline that goes back to November 2012…
Triangle breakout: EUR/USD price action during the 6/18 broke above an ascending triangle seen in the 1H chart as well as break above the 1.34 handle. However, ahead of the FOMC meeting, it is holding around the 1.34 handle, with support at 1.3383 and resistance at 1.3414. Despite the bullish break, the RSI is still held mostly between 40 and 60, showing lack of bullish momentum on the breakout…
USDJPY shallow rebound leaves bear risks intact into FOMC
• A minor advance, but still confined to the breakdown range from last Thursday after a very weak Friday close, with consolidation still in the vicinity of the setback low of last week.
• The previous breakdown through the early June spike low and the push back below the previously probed 100-day MA has reinforced the topping structure for a negative outlook into latter June.
• We still see risk this week to the key 92.57 April trough, which we would look to try to initially hold, with overshoot risk to an important low from Feb at 90.87.
• Surrender here would then target the 200-day MA, currently 89.40.
• WHAT CHANGES THIS?
• Above 96.65 eases bear risks with a neutral tone needing 99.30.
Please download audio-visual analysis here: members.marketchartist.com/LS/USDJPY.pdf
