AUD/USD 4H chart 2/4/2013 10:14AM EST
RBA, Choppiness: This is a week of several central bank meetings, the first of which is the Reserve Bank of Australia (10:30PM EST, 3:30AM GMT). We have seen AUD/USD from its early January heights above 1.06 down to 1.0360 last week. It starts this week with a push back above 1.04. Looking at the 4H chart, you can see that since breaking below 1.04, and below a rising trendline (better seen in the daily chart), the AUD/USD has been chopping around the 1.04 handle.
Momentum: The momentum has turned bearish in the 4H chart. Really, what we are seeing is a loss of bullish momentum, but with weak bearish momentum so far. It can be said that there is a bearish bias, but not that of a bearish trend, more like neutral-bearish.
Range-bound: The daily chart also shows a range-bound market going back to the summer of 2012. Will the RBA provide any spark for direction? If not, this is an extremely difficult pair to call until we have a break above 1.05, which could reopen focus on the 1.0625 . To the downside, direction (within the context of an overall range-bound market, needs at least a break below 1.0345, in which case, we would be focused on 1.0285 in the near-term, with further bearish extension to focus on the 1.0150 range- low.
AUD/USD Daily chart 2/4/2013 10:15AM EST
Fan Yang CMT is a forex trader, analyst, educator and Chief Technical Strategist for FXTimes – provider of Forex News, Analysis, Education, Videos, Charts, and other trading resources.
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