Forex Technical Update
Previous: AUD/USD Slides After NFP; Support Seen Near 1.0125 (7/6)
AUD/USD 1H Chart 11:15PM PM EDT 7/9/2012
The AUD/USD may have been crawling above the declining trendline in July, seen in the 1H chart, but the breakout was faded sharply during the 7/10 Asian session, during 10:00PM-11:00PM EDT. There are some technical clues here that suggest bearish continuation.
The 1H candle may be suggestive itself of strong bearish intention with its strength in breaking a near-term correction (flag?) pattern support.
The RSI has remained below 60, and if it breaks below 40, it is likely to be accompanied by bearish continuation price action. If the gets stuck between 40 and 60, it is likely in consolidation.
Another bearish signal is the negative reversal signal where the price high is lower, but the RSI high is higher. This suggests there is further bearish momentum for at least another swing in this short-term time-frame.
Finally, the fact that it tagged the 200-hour SMA at about 1.0210 and came back below 1.02 suggest the market can hold price below its recent mean and therefore the bias is still bearish.
To the downside, an intra-session support is at the 1.0125 pivot. Before that, around 1.0150, the slide might meet a rising trendline that’s been holding up June’s bull run.
A break below these support factors opens up the 1.0 parity level.
AUD/USD 4HChart 11:20PM EDT 7/9/2012
Fan Yang CMT is the Chief Technical Strategist, trader, educator and a of the main contributors to FXTimes – provider of Forex News, Analysis, Education, Videos, Charts, and other trading resources.
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