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AUD/USD 1H Chart 7/20/2012 8:35AM EDT
The 7/20 US session begins with risk-off dynamics, which means USD and JPY strength, while commodities fall. The euro took the lead in this risk-off trading, probably due to Spanish 10-yr bond yields extending above 7%, but the risk aversion is spreading across the board.
The AUD/USD is falling from an overnight high of 1.0425 to about 1.0385 during the 7/20 European session. As we near 1.0360, we will be testing a rising trendline connecting lows from last Thursday (7/12) with lows this Tuesday (7/17). If this materializes, 1.0325-1.0330 area will be a near-term pivot zone to monitor.
The daily chart reminds us that the market is not yet bearish even with a break below this week’s rising channel. The daily chart shows no direction in the medium term as the moving averages are whipping back and forth, while price action also whips them back and forth. A pullback to 1.0280 where the 200-day simple moving average is in confluence with a rising trendline, could be a short-term outlook.
Or it can extend lower toward 1.0160, a slowed channel support. The bearish outlook is contained to this support for now.
AUD/USD Daily Chart 7/20/2012 8:38 AM EDT
Fan Yang CMT is a forex trader, analyst, educator and Chief Technical Strategist for FXTimes – provider of Forex News, Analysis, Education, Videos, Charts, and other trading resources.
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