- Daily: The EUR/USD has reached its swing projection at 1.37, and dipped to 1.36 before pausing. In the daily time-frame, today’s price action is developing into a reversal combination.
- Then there might be a short-term (relative to daily chart) correction to the 1.40 area (38.2-50% retracement), which is coincident with downsloping trendline. That will be an important test of whether the current “reversal” is a return to bullish mode, or simply a retracement.
- 4H: Before getting to the 1.40 area, the market is breaing out of a triangle pattern on the upside. Pattern breakout projection suggests a rally towards the 61.8% retracement area – 1.3850. That in the short-term (relative to 4H chart), is a test as well.
- If the market holds and declines further, then we do NOT have a correction in the daily, and the swing continues.
- Weekly: Looking at the weekly, we see that at the moment the swing is 100% the previous. If the swing extends, a conservative projection is the 1.34/1.35 area, and a more liberal projection is the 1.3050 area, which is a rising support, April 2009 low, and fibonacci levels.
Fan Yang
Currency Analyst
Commodity Trading Advisor
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