- Weekly and Daily: The EUR/USD is still in congestion. Looking at the daily, we see that it has been consolidating with a slight downward tilt since the start of February. The 1.3450 area provided support, while each rally attempt falls shorter and shorter (congestion).
- Looking at the weekly, we see that the last 4 weeks have been without direction. However, we can see in price and momentum, that the market is very bearish and without any bullish signs, looks to continue to 1.30 area. (78.6% retracement).
- On the other hand, the current support is strong and has held up. So wait for a break below 1.3450 to confirm outlook to 1.30 area.
- For a bullish outlook, which should only be for short-term and monitored carefully, a confirmation requires a break above 1.38 and estbalishing support above this area as well. Then, the target maybe the 1.43 area.
- 4H: Looking at the 4H time-frame for clues, you can see that the momentum has channeled up, and is currently testing support. the market is also testing tghe 61.8% retracement area of the previous upswing.
- If the market stays above 1.35, there may be another bullish swing projection on the upside. This may bring the market near 1.38 area. Remember, this is still in the context of congestion, which is in a larger context of decline.
- If the market gets to that point (1.38/1.3850), monitor for topping action, but also beware of a possible break above.
Fan Yang
Currency Analyst
Commodity Trading Advisor
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