Forex Technical Update
May 25, 2010
- 15min: The market is making my outlook for EUR/USD and USD/CAD invalid. It ran is extending its correction, and may be actually developing a reversal rally.
- 4H: Looking at the 4H time-frame of the EUR/USD pair, we can see that there is an engulfing pattern, suggesting some form of reversal whether minor or major. A minor reversal should see resistance near the 1.2440 area (61.8% retracement). A break above that, should tests the previous high near 1.2700. A break above that spells major correction rally towards the 1.31 area.
- If the market still wants to hammer out the bottom, it may attempt another bearish run near 1.2315. Don’t count on it, but I am in stalking mode, so I have many scenarios open.
USD/CAD Forms Double Top
- The USD/CAD formed a double top, and may be in correction or even a reversal back towards parity.
- First, we can anticipate a pattern breakout projection and the retracements of 50% (1.07) and 61.8% (1.0670) as support areas. If these prove to be temporary stops, then a reversal may be in place.
- A pullback should help confirm as a simple break below minor support could have been a clear-out. The fact of the matter is, in the 4H time-frame, we see a possible bearish divergence, so anticipate a correction, instead of a continuation to 1.1050 area. The market is not ready for this move.
- The RSI is testing 40, and breaking it, suggesting an aggressive correction is in place. So I would aim for the 1.0670, 61.8% retracement area.
Fan Yang
Currency Analyst
Commodity Trading Advisor
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