- Weekly and Daily: The USD/CHF pair hit its 1.07 swing projection to complete a bearish gartley. (Refer to Daily Technical Update USD/CHF 2.4.2010).
- The weekly chart shows the completion of this pattern at the 89.6% retracement level (1.079-1.080). Although it appears ready to roll back from overbought zone, it is still too early to say. The market is also testing 50Wk MA.
- The daily chart shows the stochastic staying in the overbought zone after a third swing. The swing is also 161.8% extension of the previous downswing.
- The 4H chart below show the market showing reversal. The previous corrections have been minor, 38.2-50%. If the current retracement is also minor, it would follow suit and bottom at 1.0650. A break below that, which coincides with the intermediate MA50, and upsloping trendline, would indicate a fuller retracement.
- The first short-term target the is the 1.05 area, which is the previous resistance seen on the daily chart. This is also the 38.2%-50% retracement zone applied to the entire upswing. Expect some support there.
- Weekly: The long-term projection could be a swing projection to the previous 2008 low at the 0.97 area.
- The first signal for this scenario is the breakdown of 1.045-1.05 support zone.
Fan Yang
Currency Analyst
Commodity Trading Advisor
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All screenshots are made from VT Trader 2.0 and are of actual market data at the time of the screenshot.