Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only and do not constitute an investment advice. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. CMS will not accept liability for any loss of profit or damage which may arise directly, indirectly or consequently from use of or reliance on the trading set-ups or any accompanying chart analyses.
Foreign currency trading is not conducted on an exchange. CMS is acting as a counterparty to its clients’ transactions and as a result, CMS’ interests may be in conflict with its clients. Since CMS acts as the buyer or seller in the transaction one should carefully evaluate any trade recommendation provided by CMS or any of its solicitors. Foreign currency trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors.
All screenshots are made from VT Trader 2.0 and are of actual market data at the time of the screenshot.
USD/JPY 98.20 Holds
- Daily: After the Gartely completion, we anticipated another Gartley, which did not materialize. (Refer to Daily Technical Update 11.09.2009 USD/JPY ).
- Let’s first take a look at the Daily. This week’s dip was rejected and gave us a reversal signal if today’s close is at least above 90.00. The previous bottom at 89.20 was not violated, a bullish signal. Stochastic is nearing oversold and turning. Finally, we may have a break of the downsloping trendline which would signify bullish takeover.
- While this may be an aggressive trigger for some, let’s take a look at the 4H time frame.
USD/JPY 90.40 Tested
- 4H: The market came down for one more downswing, though this swing did not break below the previous 89.20 area, so it can be interpreted as a 3-wave retracement pattern
- We also noted that the 90.40 area is going to be tested. At the moment, it coincides with the downsloping trendline. The strength of the current rally suggests this is likely to materialize.
- We should wait for a break of 90.40 and a retest of our support zone that can range from 90.00 to 90.40. We can consider the bullish case towards the 92.30 and 94.00 targets if this support zone holds.
- Using 2.5 ATRs, we see that our projected risk exposure is about 110 pips given a projected trigger to close at 90.60. Propjected reward to risk is therefore conservatively 1.5:1 and liberally 3:1.
Fan Yang
Currency Analyst,
Commodity Trading Advisor
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Daily Technical Update
November 11, 2009 (USD/JPY) Potential Reversal Setup
Please read this important notice before proceeding to analysis
Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only and do not constitute an investment advice. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. CMS will not accept liability for any loss of profit or damage which may arise directly, indirectly or consequently from use of or reliance on the trading set-ups or any accompanying chart analyses. Foreign currency trading is not conducted on an exchange. CMS is acting as a counterparty to its clients’ transactions and as a result, CMS’ interests may be in conflict with its clients. Since CMS acts as the buyer or seller in the transaction one should carefully evaluate any trade recommendation provided by CMS or any of its solicitors. Foreign currency trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. All screenshots are made from VT Trader 2.0 and are of actual market data at the time of the screenshot. USD/JPY 98.20 Holds
USD/JPY 90.40 Tested
Fan Yang |
