Forex Technical Update
September 3, 2010
Tools:
Simple Moving Average(SMA) 50-period (red), 200-period (bold, gray)
RSI-14 with Simple Moving Average 5-period of RSI attached.
Fibonacci Study
Elliott Wave Principles
Market and Price Action  (patterns, candlesticks)
Multiple Time-Frame Analysis
EUR/GBP Developing a Double Top
ftu_090310_eurgbph4
  • Day: The daily chart shows the EUR/GBP going up against a declining trendline.
  • The market is reacting by pausing the rally at 50% retracement, 0.8350 level.
  • Note the RSI is remaining under 60 for now and is turning lower.
  • The 0.8400 area is 61.8% retracement, and is the resistance zone for this pair. Will the market extend a little further ? Or will there be topping action here at 0.8350?
  • In any case, the bearish scenario is invalid if the market breaks above the 78.6% retracement area and previous support at the 0.8450/60  area.
  • If the bearish scenario follows through, we have 2 suggested swing projections that target the zone between 0.7850 and 0.7950.

ftu_090310_eurgbph

  • 4H: The 4h chart shows the market in a possible double top development. The market needs to break below 0.8300 for the double top to be established.
  • Even after a break, there is a possible rally when the market tests the previous resistance area as support (0.8280).
  • Watch for a pullback, and if the pullback does not rally above the middle of the double top (0.8325), then the market confirms the topping action and suggests a decline towards at least 0.8230 area (61.8% retracement).
  • The 0.82 area is the ultimate test of the bullish scenario, which is possible as the RSI signals bullish momentum, and the market did breakout above 0.8280 area. That is why that is an important pivot to monitor.
  • If the market can break below 0.8200, then looking back at the daily, we have a possible swing projection.
  • Looking at the possible level for a stop (0.8465) and a possible target (0.7950), an entry near 0.8270 yields a reward to risk ratio near 1.6:1.

Fan Yang
Currency Analyst
Commodity Trading Advisor

Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only and do not constitute an investment advice. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. FXTimes will not accept liability for any loss of profit or damage which may arise directly, indirectly or consequently from use of or reliance on the trading set-ups or any accompanying chart analyses.

All screenshots are made from VT Trader 2.0 and are of actual market data at the time of the screenshot.

Comments

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  1. Faiza
    Fa
    Rating 0
    Commented: September 3rd, 2010
    Hello Fan :) EUR/GBP hit 0.8348 today so next move is downward ??
  2. Fan Yang
    fyang
    Rating 0
    Commented: September 3rd, 2010
    Well, timing is not there yet, as the market continues to rally towards 0.84. If the market breaks below 0.830 in the way I have in the 4H chart, then the market has a good chance to decline towards 0.82 area, thought support starts 0.83230. These are short-term supports, and if broken confirms bearish continuation towards the 2010 low at 0.81. The a break below that targets 0.7850, 0.7950...see, as a technician, I don't make predictions, I try to stalk an anticipate likely scenarios, so the time-frame you talk about is important when you as about where the market is heading. =) Thanks for the continuing questions though.
  3. Faiza
    Fa
    Rating 0
    Commented: September 3rd, 2010
    Thanks for the Nice analysis :) And I was talking about H4 TF,

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