Forex Technical Update
July 11, 2010
- 1H: The EUR/USD saw it’s first sign of reversal from its current rally on Friday, as mentioned on the EUR/USD update.
- To start this week, we saw pullback capped at 1.2650, and a strong bearish attempt. With strength in the previous slide, this current strength looks like a continuation.
- The RSI also is showing that it can indeed break below 40, a sign of tested bearish strength. If the current decline can close below 1.2610, a bearish confirmation is given. In the near-term a swing towards 1.2530. That can be a near-term projection, since it is likely to meet the 200SMA, and may see temporary support.
- Daily: The next projection if 1.2530 breaks is the 1.2405 level, 38.2% retracement and top of the first upswing in June.
- You also see a support at 1.22 at 61.8%. The 1.2150 has been a very important level, so I would definitely consider covering short positions here with a plan to re-enter pending signals.
- Ultimately, I can see this downswing as a terminal wave, which means in 3 swings it should at least reach 1.1880.
Fan Yang
Currency Analyst
Commodity Trading Advisor
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