EUR/USD – Negative Reversal Signals Bearish Swing

• 4H: The EUR/USD completed a negative reversal signal during the European session, ahead of the US session. The slow rally last week from near 1.26 to 1.28 stopped at resistance of 61.8% retracement.
• The market has been declining since starting this week and looks to continue towards 1.2440. This is a swing projection.
• The 15-min, not shown here confirmed as the RSI broke below 40. The price action there also broke below the 50 and 200 Simple Moving Averages.
• The market should not go below the open on 6/21 1.2447. The high that day was 1.2466.
• The idea is that if the market closes below these levels, the long-intermediate term bullish outlook based on a specific wave count is invalid.
• The short-term look is a decline towards 1.2440. However the intermediate term look warrants us to look for bottoming and possibly consider the bullish scenario if a rally springs from this 1.2440/1.2450 area.

• Day: The daily chart shows the EUR/USD in a short-intermediate term decline resting above the cluster of 61.8% and 50% retracement levels near 1.26.
• If today’s candle were to close before the US session, it is an engulfing bearish candle. However we still have an entire session to go.
• The RSI is also resting above 40, so there is not bearish momentum confirmation yet, although it is close to one.
• If the 1.26 level breaks, the market may continue towards 1.2450 area which is a cluster of 61.8% and 78.6% retracement levels. As mentioned before, look for bottoming here. However if it breaks, consider the bearish continuation in the intermediate term and possibility of reaching to 1.22, and 1.19.

Fan Yang
Currency Analyst
Commodity Trading Advisor

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All screenshots are made from VT Trader 2.0 and are of actual market data at the time of the screenshot.