Daily Technical Update
March 15, 2010
AUD/NZD Elliott Wave Counts
- Weekly: Looking at the weekly, first note the break above resistance that was at 1.029. The Aussie has outperformed the Kiwi, although both are strong currencies in the global sense. The rally from 1.20 to 1.28 is either I or A wave. The correction to 1.23 was either II or B.
- That brings us to the current upswing, which could be developing either III, or B (see in Daily below). Projection for III goes to 1.35 (138.2% expansion of wave I).
- The weekly shows a bounce from above the channel support IF the market has a correction. So far, it looks ready for one, but there has not been a signal. If it does correct, the 1.2850 or 1.27 could be support. Let’s look for more clues inthe daily.
- Daily: The market is overbought, and due for a correction. The initial strong rejection at 1.29 should caution us that this correction could be very minor.
- The count for December 09 througout Jan 2010 shows an a-b-c correction. A (c), we also completed II or B. Now the current swing may have completed wave (1) and onto wave (2). Counter to my intuition about the strong rejection at 1.29, the second wave tends to be a major correction, for example to the 61.8% retracement or 1.27 level. The 4H time-frame shows more detail of the development of (2).<><><<>>
>>< ><> ><<>>>H:< >We may have completed (a) and (b) of wave (2). Wave (c) could extende either to 1.2920 or 1.2850. 1.2920 is the conservative swing projection of (a) onto (c), truncating the tail that showed the 1.29 rejection.<><>f the market is supported above 1.2920, look for it break above the declining resistance, and then onto 1.32, which is projection for C. However, if the market is in an impulse mode, then the 1.32 would not hold, and the next projection would be 1.35 (projection of wave III; refer to weekly chart).<><>an Yang< >>< >< >>urrency Analyst< >><<>>>Commodity Trading Advisor< >nformation and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only and do not constitute an investment advice. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. CMS will not accept liability for any loss of profit or damage which may arise directly, indirectly or consequently from use of or reliance on the trading set-ups or any accompanying chart analyses.< >><<>>>oreign currency trading is not conducted on an exchange. CMS is acting as a counterparty to its clients’ transactions and as a result, CMS’ interests may be in conflict with its clients. Since CMS acts as the buyer or seller in the transaction one should carefully evaluate any trade recommendation provided by CMS or any of its solicitors. Foreign currency trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors.< >><<>>>ll screenshots are made from VT Trader 2.0 and are of actual market data at the time of the screenshot. < >><>__noise___100< >
