March 4, 2011 – EUR/USD after the March NFP; Long Term Elliott Wave Counts
Simple Moving Average(SMA) 50-period (red), 200-period (bold, gray)
RSI-14 with Simple Moving Average 5-period of RSI attached.
Fibonacci Study
Elliott Wave Principles
Market and Price Action (patterns, candlesticks)
Intraday pivots and Intermediate-term support and resistance
Multiple Time-frame Analysis
EUR/USD
- The EUR/USD in the lower time-frames are subject to noise around today’s Non-Farm Payroll, which came out positive, but was mainly expected. However the 1.40 level remains an important resistance.
- On the downside, a bearish scenario can be considered below 1.37 to go to 1.3550. Below that 1.3420 area is the target.
- The upside remains as previously stated. Above 1.40, we are looking at 1.4280.
- The daily shows the 1.3980/1.40 area as 78.6% retracement and declining trendline. If the market pushes higher, we are to test 1.4280.
- The Weekly chart shows 2 scenarios.
- The first is a respect of the 1.4280 high, and a completion of 3 swings in similar lengths. If the declining wedge continues, the market should then decline for an E wave to complete this consolidation that started in 2008.
- Another scenario is that we have completed a zig zag in ABC and has been developing an impulse wave with wave 3 extension. The current 5 waves up could not be impulsive because of the overlapping, but this does not rule out possible “nesting”. This rally sees resistance at 1.52.
- This is why 1.4280 is an even more significant resistance than the current 1.40.
Will the EUR/USD surge past 1.40 to end this or start the next week? We would love to hear what you think.
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Fan Yang CMT
Chief Technical Strategist
FXTimes
Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only and do not constitute an investment advice. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. FXTimes will not accept liability for any loss of profit or damage which may arise directly, indirectly or consequently from use of or reliance on the trading set-ups or any accompanying chart analysis.
he GBP/CHF might finally have topped off after a sharp rally from 1.44 to 1.54 (a 1000-pip swing).
- There is a cluster of 61.8% fibonacci retracement level, psychological resistance at 1.54, as well as a previous support for a double top that was broken (after which, the slide from 1.60 extended to 1.44.
- This volatile pair also has the RSI now failing to sustain a break above 60 – all these are signs of topping.
- The 4H chart also shows the topping action in more detail, and lays out some fibonacci retracement levels as targets for conservative bearish scenarios.
