EUR/USD 4H Chart 11/19/2012 9:03AM EST
Sideways: EUR/USD’s price action since the second half of October have been bearish falling from 1.3138 down to 1.2660. In the past week and a half, since breaking below 1.28 on 11/7, the EUR/USD has started to trade sideways. It has consolidated between 1.28 and 1.2660. Last week’s bearish break reached 1.2689 pivot and bounced back above 1.27, but is stalling under 1.28 as we start the 11/19 US session.
Breakout scenario: If the market pushes above 1.28, we have 38.2% retraement at 1.2843, and another resistance pivot at 1.2877. Between these two targets, the EUR/USD would likely catch a falling trendline going back to the October high of 1.3138. Holding below this trendline holds a bearish outlook, while breaking above 1.29 (50% retracement) should open up the bullish outlook.
Momentum: If bearish momentum is to be maintained, price is likely going to hold under 1.28, and the 4H RSI likely hold under 60. There is still some room down to the next key support area around 1.26.
Fan Yang CMT is a forex trader, analyst, educator and Chief Technical Strategist for FXTimes – provider of Forex News, Analysis, Education, Videos, Charts, and other trading resources.
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