Forex Technical Update
NZD/USD 4H Chart 11:59AM EDT 11/1/2012
Triangle Breakout: The NZD/USD broke above the congestion triangle noted in the previous update, and followed with a break above the 0.8240 pivot. The RSI in the 4H chart held above 40 and returned to kiss 70, a sign of developing bullish momentum. But in the near-term, it might be slightly overbought.
Throwback: A throwback that is within the context of a bullish outlook from this breakout should hold above 0.8240. Below that it becomes unclear, and a break below 0.82 opens up the false-breakout and bearish outlook in the short-term, with focus back on the 0.81 low, which should coincide with a rising trendline that goes back to the 0.7810 low in July.
Upside target: To the upside, this breakout opens up 0.8350-0.8355 highs made in September.
NFP: Tomorrow’s US Non-Farm Payroll data can help decide whether this breakout will extend to the Sept. highs or whether the focus remains on the support area of 0.81. Forexfactory reports a forecast of 123K after a 114K reading in October (for September). Meeting this expectation of improvement and beyond should be risk-on, and positive for NZD/USD. Missing 100K could be the opposite.
Fan Yang CMT is a forex trader, analyst, educator and Chief Technical Strategist for FXTimes – provider of Forex News, Analysis, Education, Videos, Charts, and other trading resources.
Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only and do not constitute an investment advice. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. FXTimes will not accept liability for any loss of profit or damage which may arise directly, indirectly or consequently from use of or reliance on the trading set-ups or any accompanying chart analysis.