USD/JPY 4H chart 2/24/2013 10:55PM EST
New High: In the 4H USD/JPY chart, we see the market consolidating, with a slightly rising support. The market was trading in the middle of this consolidation to end last week (2/22). To start this week during the 2/25 Asian session, the USD/JPY popped up above the consolidation high of 94.45, but retreated so far ahead of the European session. If the breakout extends, the immediate next key level to monitor is the 95.00 handle, 2007 pre-crisis high. A more aggressive target would be the width of the range (close to 250 pips). That projects to about 98.00.
False break? The breakout to the upside looks weak, but could remain valid UNLESS a throwback not only fills the “gap” seen in many charts, but also pushes below 93. That would return the focus on the 91.80-92.00 area. A break below 91.80 would form a top, and suggest bearish correction. There is a pivot area in 90.25-90.30, which should be monitored. The aggressive projection of 250 pips targets the 89.30-89.50 area.
AUD/JPY 4H chart 2/24/2013 11:00PM EST
Consolidation: The AUD/JPY is in a similar set up as the USD/JPY in that they have both been consolidating a bullish trend. The AUD/JPY has not quite cracked the consolidation high at 97.42 when price retreated to about the start of the week. A slide below 96.00 would focus the pair back toward the bottom of the consolidation area.
Breakout projections: A break above 97.50 would probably be a strong enough breakout to extend the bullish trend. A break below 95.00 would be needed to show topping and suggest a bearish correction. The width of the consolidation zone is about 240 pips. Thus, a break to the upside, has a projection toward the 99.80-100 area. to the downside, the breakout projection targets the 94.50-94.60 area.
Fan Yang CMT is a forex trader, analyst, educator and Chief Technical Strategist for FXTimes – provider of Forex News, Analysis, Education, Videos, Charts, and other trading resources.
Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only and do not constitute an investment advice. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. FXTimes will not accept liability for any loss of profit or damage which may arise directly, indirectly or consequently from use of or reliance on the trading set-ups or any accompanying chart analysis.