March 4, 2011 – USD/JPY’s Throwback after Non-Farm Payroll
Simple Moving Average(SMA) 50-period (red), 200-period (bold, gray)
RSI-14 with Simple Moving Average 5-period of RSI attached.
Fibonacci Study
Elliott Wave Principles
Market and Price Action (patterns, candlesticks)
Intraday pivots and Intermediate-term support and resistance
Multiple Time-frame Analysis
USD/JPY
- Today’s NFP release was positive, but perhaps the market already priced in the data, “buying the rumor”, and is now “selling the fact”.
- The USD/JPY has been building a base and did rally in an impulse wave manner from 81.60, breaking above a declining trendline and the SMA 200 in the 4H chart. The RSI reflects no more bearish momentum, but the bullish momentum is not there yet.
- Today’s decline can be part of a corrective decline, which should be 3 waves if that assumption is correct. Then the market should respect the base and stay above 82.00 for a rally towards 84.00, 84.50.
- A break below 81.60 next week is unlikely, but if this happens, a decline to 80.20 is in sight. However,no significant trending action should be expected until we break above 84.50 or below 80.20.
Will the USD/JPY break out of this consolidation in March? We would love to hear what you think.
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Fan Yang CMT
Chief Technical Strategist
FXTimes
Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only and do not constitute an investment advice. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. FXTimes will not accept liability for any loss of profit or damage which may arise directly, indirectly or consequently from use of or reliance on the trading set-ups or any accompanying chart analysis.
he GBP/CHF might finally have topped off after a sharp rally from 1.44 to 1.54 (a 1000-pip swing).
- There is a cluster of 61.8% fibonacci retracement level, psychological resistance at 1.54, as well as a previous support for a double top that was broken (after which, the slide from 1.60 extended to 1.44.
- This volatile pair also has the RSI now failing to sustain a break above 60 – all these are signs of topping.
- The 4H chart also shows the topping action in more detail, and lays out some fibonacci retracement levels as targets for conservative bearish scenarios.
