Greenback: Short-term Strength Spilling Over to the Intermediate-term

Based on the daily time-frame, the short-term strength we have seen in the past 2 weeks for the greenback is showing this week that is is possibly an intermediate term cycle. That suggests further strength in January. The momentum of dollar-crosses also suggests some short-term correction before further dollar-strength.

EUR/USD: Daily Video Technical Update 12.17.09

GBP/USD: Daily Technical Update 12.18.09 GBP/USD Confirming Breakout

USD/JPY: Stalking Gartley

• Weekly and Daily: The USD/JPY is following the short-term bullish outlook towards 93.00. This would be a completion of a Gartley, and coincident to the downsloping trendline.
• Topping action and bearish signal here gives us the chance to assess whether the subsequent decline is only a throwback.
• If the market tops around 93.00, then declines and bottoms above 90.50, we may have this short-term bullish outlook turn to an intermediate one. That needs a confirmation by the break of the downsloping trendline.

USD/CHF: Not much has changed since last week’s analysis, although this week moved the pair to the 1.0500 level, which was noted to be an important resistance level last week. The anticipation is the same. (Refer to last week’s Weekly Technical Update 12.11.2009)

USD/CAD: Daily Video  Technical Update 12.17.2009 USD/CAD and Daily Technical Update 12.17.2009 USD/CAD Nearing Breakout.

EUR/GBP Maybe Consolidating

• Daily and 4H: The Elliott Wave count recently posted is still valid, but the market is making the scenario for wave V less likely this week. (Refer to Daily Video Technical Update 12.16.2009 and Daily Technical Update 12.16.2009 EUR/GBP Reassessing Subwave “2″).
• Ideally, the decline should stop at lowest 0.8900, which is the 78.6% retracement level. However the market basically did a 100% retracement. This suggests we may be in a consolidation for a while before heading to test the 2009 high at 0.9400.
• We are in a small consolidation between 0.8850 and 0.8900 roughly. If the market rallies above this basing action and breaks above 0.8920, the short-term projection is 0.9150.
• Depending on the manner of this rally, if it slows here, then we have evidence our consolidation is extending. If it breaks above, our Elliott Wave count is still valid, otherwise, it is neither confirmed or invalidated.

GBP/JPY: Congestiong Pattern Nearing Apex

• Weekly and Daily: The GBP/JPY is nearing the apex of its current congestion pattern shown in the daily chart.
• A break is due next week. A break above suggests a rally with resistance at 153.00. A break below suggests a decline with support at 140.00. These are short-/intermediate- term projections and would be in the 2-3 weeks horizon, unless volatility increases and reaches in 1 week.
• If the volatility increases as the market reaches these powerlines, the possibility of a break is higher than if the move is choppy or laborious.

AUD/USD: Daily Technical Update 12.18.2009 Bullish Butterfly

Fan Yang
Currency Analyst
Commodity Trading Advisor
fyang@cmsfx.com

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All screenshots are made from VT Trader 2.0 and are of actual market data at the time of the screenshot.