Content
Greek Election Results
Other Headlines
Tomorrow’s s Key Risk and Headlines
Technical Strategy Notes
Syriza party concedes
- New Democracy (pro-bailout) very likely to win, or lead coalition government.
- Drama on Greek leadership seems quelled.
- Release of 1bn euro tranche in bailout fund necessary to provide public sector workers pay and pension beyond June 20.
- spotlight on eurozone crisis does no dim as headlines are likely to shift elsewhere, or reveal other areas of the Greek drama.
- For now, market starts the week with risk-on, pushing down the USD, and even more so the JPY.
- France also had a parliamentary election. Results show that the socialist party will win, giving Hollande an easier time ahead to pass legislation
- NZ Westpac Consumer Sentiment for Q2 falls to 99.9 from 102.4. This crosses the 100 level that separates pessimism from optimism.
On 6/18 Some key risk headlines likely to come from:
- G20 meeting in Mexico.
- RBA meeting minutes.
EUR/USD
- EUR/USD (6/17) update looking at some resistance factors
- Resistance seen at 1.2820, and then 1.30.
- Fibonacci expansion: 100% 1.2768, 161.8% near 1.30.
- 1.30 is therefore key resistance level below which, we should still look for a bearish EUR/USD
- In the short-term, upside risk is to 1.30.
- 1.2650 is key support for the start of the week. Falling below that not only closes the opening week “gap”, but also suggests a lack of follow through to the “positive” news.
GBP/USD
- Ends last week, starts this week pumped up to a resistance pivot around 1.5730.
- Resistance pivot area goes up to 1.5785 area.
- 1.5750 is 200-day SMA.
- We are near
- Next key resistance will be near 1.60.
EUR/GBP
- Continues to trade in a consolidation mode since May 14.
- Trading around 0.81.
- 0.8150 is last week’s resistance.
- Above 0.8150, 0.82-0.8220 is a key resistance area.
USD/JPY
- Ends previous week with a break below range support at 79.09.
- Starts this week trading back up in to the range.
- A push above 79.50 suggests another rally.
- An ABC correction projection targets 80.75. 80.90 is 50% retracement of the declining from 84.16 to 77.64 (March to June)
- Failure to push back above 79.50 still maintains a bearish bias in the USD/JPY with downside risk to the 77.64 low and possibly lower.
- Downside risk below that might be limited to to “intervention” speculation.
USD/CAD
- Extends below 1.02
- 1.0150 is a support pivot.
- Below that a key pivot is the 1.0050-1.0060 area. The 61.8% retracement of the rally since end of April to May (0.98-1.0445), is at 1.0045
AUD/USD
- Trading near declining trendline
- Trading near 61.8% retracement at 1.0137.
- 1.0150 may is seen as resistance.
- Next key resistnace may be a previous support pivot in the 1.0240-1.0250 area.
NZD/USD
- Pushing above some expected resistance at 0.7880.
- Upside risk remains toward 0.8050-0.81 area, a previous support pivot area, and declining trendline.
- Before that, the 0.80 level may become a psychological barrier. It is also 61.8% retracement of the bear run from April high of 0.8320 to the May low of 0.7450.
EUR/JPY
- Trading back at resistance around 100.70, tagging 101.
- Ability to push above 101 opens up the next resistance pivot from May 22, near 102.
- As the market pushes above 101, it is also breaking a declining trendline going back to March.
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GBP/JPY
- Pushing above last week’s high, cracking the consolidation resistance at 124.30.
- This is breaking a trendline going back to April 26.
- The next key levels are at 126.40 (R/S pivot), and then the 127.00 handle.
