Forex Video Technical Update 7.19.2010 – Greenback and Japanese Yen Gains During Risk AversionDaily \ \ 12:19 PM EST \ July 19th, 2010 |
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This week, equity markets started somewhat subdued, with Asian markets sliding, and European and US markets giving away early gains. The dollar and yen were mainly gainers to start, but the dollar’s strength fizzled during the European session. The Euro also continues to position strongly. I will briefly go over charts of the EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/JPY, and AUD/USD.
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$AUDUSD: A break back under 1.0700 will now be required to negate the bullish price action and open the door for a bearish reversal. $AUDUSD: While we disagree with the RBA decision and think it will eventually come back to strain the economy, right now can't fight trend. $EURUSD: Still locked in a multi-session consolidation and needs to break below 1.3025 or back above 1.3235 for clearer directional bias. $GBPAUD: The combination of an unexpected RBA rate hold and some softer UK BRC retail sales have weighed heavily on this cross rate.
Going to stay on the sidelines for now, but will be closely watching that 1.3000 to the upside. $AUDNZD: Clears the 20-Day SMA (1.2932) as it rallies to a high of 1.2939. Definitely a better entry on the pending short trade.
The ASX 200 gave back its earlier gains. Now 0.5% underwater. Apparently, share holders wanted the Fed treatment. ...I'm not a fan of that $AUDJPY Tidal Shift signal unless we clear that 61.8% Fib (of 4/28 to 10/4 bear wave) at 82.85 and risk advances. $AUDCAD and AUDNZD have cleared relative highs (the former a record). The Tidal Shift strategy just put up a long AUDJPY signal as well.
RBA surprising rate hold at 4.25% is aimed at helping out banks by not forcing them to pass on lower rates. Cost of k gone up #forex Dovish rhetoric from the RBA, sure; but this is the same quality of commentary we have heard over the past three rate decisions. RBA: Housing prices are starting to stabalize, interest rates for boarrowers near average, terms of trade are starting to ease.
RBA: "Growth in China has moderated as was intended, but on most indicators remained quite robust through the second half of last year." RBA: "The acute financial pressures on banks in Europe were alleviated considerably late in 2011 by the actions of policymakers" $AUD #forex RBA says its inflation outlook gives it scope to ease if demand (assuming domestic) eases. RBA: Inflation has declined as expected, CPI and GDP near trend, Chinese growth moderating, EU a threat. A hold fits, the prevailing risk trend and this $AUDUSD channel. Now the question is what happens going forward. Remember the prevailing trend in risk and A$ is bullish. And also consider that we have already seen two RBA cuts and another is expected
Heads up for the RBA rate decision. Will we see a 0.25% cut? #forex #fx #aud 94 mentions of EURAUD, AUDUSD, Aussie, Stevens, RBA and AUD in last 5 minutes (via @milktrader) --> http://t.co/Pt9Ziwxe #forex Is that a H&S from $AUDUSD I'm seeing on the 120min chart after a steady cbull channel...Neckline and channel bottom around 1.0680. Ilya is starting the live coverage of the RBA rate decision now. Come join as he covers the news and market reaction. http://t.co/o7gUG4aP RT @milktrader added AUDUSD and EURAUD to the twitter word search ... should be up shortly on http://t.co/Pt9Ziwxe
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